Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Mid 1st
It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.
Historical Consensus Picks 5-8
2022
- 1.05 – Treylon Burks, WR TEN
- 1.06 – Jameson Williams, WR DET
- 1.07 – Chris Olave, WR NO
- 1.08 – Kenny Pickett, QB PIT
2021
- 1.05 – Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
- 1.06 – Najee Harris, RB PIT
- 1.07 – Zach Wilson, QB NYJ
- 1.08 – Travis Etienne, RB JAC
2020
- 1.05 – JK Dobbins, RB BAL
- 1.06 – D’Andre Swift, RB DET
- 1.07 – Cam Akers, RB LAR
- 1.08 – Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN
Looking at these groups of players, it’s hard to have any really good takeaways because so many of these players have dealt with injuries or other circumstances that have interrupted their careers.
If there’s one thing that I notice though, it’s that when you compare these players to those who were consensus 1-4 picks, there’s a clear difference in level, which makes sense because there tends to be a tier break in the prospects around the fourth to sixth picks. Identifying where the tier break is in each draft is very important. If you identify that the tier break happens at the 1.04 and you have the 1.05, then you should be considering moving your pick. Ideally one of the players from that top tier falls to you at the 1.05 but it’s not something you really want to count on.
You want to be either looking to see what it would take to move up into the better tier and doing so if the cost is low or trading back in the same tier to accumulate extra value while still being able to get a player of similar value. Understanding your prospect tiers will help you navigate your rookie drafts on your way to extracting the most value out of it that you can.
2023 Potential Options
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State
- Quentin Johnston, WR TCU
- Jordan Addison, WR USC
- Will Levis, QB Kentucky
- Anthony Richardson, QB Florida
- Zach Evans, RB Mississippi
- Sean Tucker, RB Syracuse
This is where there starts to be less of a consensus. Everyone will have their favorite wide receiver from the big three and it’s possible all of them will be available in this range. Some people will be enamored by Will Levis or Anthony Richardson’s physical tools and will be running to the podium to put in their pick and get them on their team. Zach Evans or Sean Tucker could test really well in the lead-up to the draft and get the second-round NFL Draft capital they need to get you excited. As I mentioned before, this is where understanding your prospect tiers will be very important. As the consensus begins to get less concentrated, opportunities will arise for you to be able to move up and down between your tiers.
Trade Value
Knowing which prospects are worthy of being selected with these picks is only half of the battle. It’s also important to know what these picks are worth on the trade market. This will help you to find worthwhile trades if you find yourself not as interested in the prospects available when you’re up to pick or what it will take to trade up for a pick to get a prospect you really like. Using the Dynasty League Football Trade Analyzer, here are some potential options each pick could be traded for right now.
1.05
- D’Andre Swift, RB DET
- Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
- Deebo Samuel, WR SF
- DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
1.06
- Josh Jacobs, RB LV
- Joe Mixon, RB CIN
- Chris Godwin, WR TB
- Nick Chubb, RB CLE
1.07
- Najee Harris, RB PIT
- Michael Pittman, WR IND
- Javonte Williams, RB DEN
- Kirk Cousins, QB MIN
1.08
- Treylon Burks, WR TEN
- Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
- Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
- Derrick Henry, RB TEN
In almost all cases I would rather have the pick than the player. This section of players is littered with veterans who have reached the age where the dynasty marketplace will never raise their value even if they overperform expectations.
Even if you know that you are a competing team, I think it’s best to keep the pick. Rookie drafts should be about asset collection and you want to leave the draft having accumulated as much stable value as you can. More often than not, when looking at the trade value of these picks, that’s going to be the pick because first-round rookie draft picks normally have some value insulation due to their draft status.
Keep in mind, nothing is stopping you from trading the player you selected later if the values shift. You just have to realize that the rookie is more likely to see their value increase than the veteran.
Dynasty Recommendations
1.05 – In most cases, in this area of the draft, I’m going to be focusing on drafting any of the big three wide receivers of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison if they’re available as I believe they are clearly a tier ahead of everyone else. Luckily, at this pick you should have all three of them to pick from. If one of these wide receivers was taken before the 1.05, that means that one of Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Jahmyr Gibbs will be available in which case I suggest picking them.
1.06 – Like 1.05, I’ll be focusing on the top wide receivers and if Young, Stroud, or Gibbs fell. This pick doesn’t have as good of options on the trade analyzer compared to 1.05 in my opinion so if those are your options for trading, I’d be making the pick. If more than one of the big three wide receivers are available, I’d be exploring moving back to the 1.07 or 1.08 depending on how many of them are available to try and pick up some additional assets while still getting a player in the same tier.
1.07 – More than likely, this will be the last pick in which one of Smith-Njigba, Johnston, or Addison will be available and that will be the easy selection for me. The possible trade options are a little enticing but they’re all players who are starting to have enough reason for concern that I’d almost always prefer to just make this pick. If you feeling strongly about another prospect you could look into trading back a pick or two, but I don’t have the confidence in the other prospects.
1.08 – At this time, this pick for me is simply: did one of the big wide receivers fall to this pick or not? If one did, then great, easy pick. If not, I’m almost certainly looking to make a trade back or out of the pick completely. Many will be salivating over Richardson and Levis’ physical attributes but until we see good draft capital for these quarterbacks, I can’t feel confident in picking them at this point in the rookie draft. I understand they’re different levels of prospects but don’t forget what happened to Malik Willis last year.
- Four Quarterbacks to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - May 7, 2025
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - April 30, 2025
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - April 16, 2025
