Dynasty Battle Review: JuJu Smith-Schuster vs Skyy Moore
In the last two off-seasons, I did a dynasty battle series highlighting players with similar dynasty ADPs at the same position on the same team. These articles are perfect to revisit, as I had to compare two players and decide between them. Therefore, I either got the call right or wrong, and it gives me a chance to be accountable for that choice.
A few days ago, I wrote an article reviewing my 2022 piece on Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. I analyzed that comparison in that article, and I eventually settled on Stevenson as the better asset after a long debate. I ended up making the right decision there, as Stevenson had a far superior 2022 season to Harris and has a better dynasty outlook moving forward. However, even though I settled on the right player, I waffled between the two running backs even as I wrote the article. Interestingly, writing the article helped me decide.
This time, though, we’ll look back at an article where I was highly confident in my decision. I began this article with my mind made up, and I just wanted to express that opinion in writing. Unfortunately, I couldn’t have been more wrong about my take, and it’s burned me across the 2022 season. With that said, let’s review my article on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore!
Previous Article Summary
In June 2022, I wrote about Smith-Schuster and Moore, comparing their roles and dynasty values in the exciting Kansas City Chiefs offense. However, I expected Moore to rise above Smith-Schuster by the end of the 2022 season or even earlier. Let’s look at my conclusion from the previous article to give an idea of my thinking.
As you can see, I said that Moore had more insulated dynasty value and that Smith-Schuster was on the verge of losing all of his dynasty value.
2022 Results
Of course, Smith-Schuster had a bounce-back 2022 season, while Moore barely contributed. Let’s examine Smith-Schuster’s performance first.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference
JuJu scored 58.3 receiving yards per game, his best mark since his impressive 2018 campaign. Additionally, he averaged 4.9 receptions per game, returning to a solid volume level, especially compared to 2019 and 2021. Most notably, touchdown regression didn’t favor him, as he only scored three touchdowns on 101 targets, despite Patrick Mahomes throwing 41 touchdowns in 2022. It seems incredibly unlucky that Jerick McKinnon scored nine receiving touchdowns on only 71 targets, while Smith-Schuster only managed three on far more volume.
In terms of weekly fantasy production, Smith-Schuster averaged 11.83 fantasy PPG.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App
JuJu didn’t put up numbers comparable to his 2017, 2018, and 2020 performances, but he far outperformed his putrid 2019 and 2021 fantasy outputs. However, the pure fantasy points don’t tell the whole story.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App
He averaged his best points per receiving opportunity since his rookie year, showing decent overall efficiency despite scoring just a few touchdowns. In addition, the Chiefs found new ways to use Smith-Schuster, allowing him to average 9.2 yards/target and 12 yards/reception, far different from his dump-off role in 2020 and 2021.
However, it’s fair to note some warning signs with Smith-Schuster’s 2022 season.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App
He failed to record double-digit fantasy points in five of the last seven games shown here, and he also had a poor week 18 performance. He never truly regained the same role after suffering a concussion in week ten, averaging just 45.4 receiving yards per game after that injury. The Chiefs also directed more volume toward other receivers and McKinnon, as Smith-Schuster had four or fewer targets in his five down games. It is always concerning when a player loses volume toward the end of a season, as the later games are more predictive for the following year.
However, even though Smith-Schuster tailed off down the stretch, none of that volume went toward Moore.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference
He had just 22 catches for 250 yards and zero touchdowns in 2022, finishing eighth on the team in targets and yards and seventh in receptions. The Chiefs eventually traded for Kadarius Toney to provide another receiving option alongside their existing players, further relegating Moore down the depth chart. Somehow, Moore lost three fumbles, failing to make an impact as a returner and hurting the team on multiple occasions. I usually can find some positive takeaway for any player, but there’s nothing nice to say about Moore’s rookie year.
2023 and Beyond
Going into 2023, the Chiefs have a lot of uncertainty in their offense. Of course, Mahomes will remain their quarterback for years, but he’s one of the only locked-in pieces. I fully expect Travis Kelce to be their top receiving weapon again in 2023, even though he will turn 34 during the 2023 season. His contract runs through the 2025 season, and it’s relatively cheap for his high-end production.
However, beyond Kelce, the Chiefs have nothing but question marks. Smith-Schuster is an unrestricted free agent this off-season, although I expect the Chiefs to make a solid effort to retain him. Toney will undoubtedly return, as his relatively cheap rookie deal runs through 2024 with a 2025 fifth-year option. Moore will also be back, as he still has three years left on his rookie contract. However, I doubt the Chiefs can keep Marquez Valdes-Scantling and re-sign Smith-Schuster, and they can save $7 million if they release Valdes-Scantling before the third day of the 2023 league year. They also will likely move on from Mecole Hardman, who hasn’t done much on his rookie contract.
Therefore, the Chiefs will most likely build their receiver room around Smith-Schuster, Toney, and Moore, but that group seems insufficient. They could easily sign yet another free agent like DJ Chark, trade for a high-profile receiver like DeAndre Hopkins, or spend another high-end draft pick at wide receiver. If they do, Moore seems like the player most likely to be pushed aside, considering Smith-Schuster’s production and Toney’s superior pedigree. Moore’s outlook looks incredibly bleak moving forward.
Conclusion
To conclude, I got it entirely wrong with Smith-Schuster and Moore heading into the 2022 season. Smith-Schuster was a value at his reduced cost, while Moore was a complete and utter bust. Currently, I rank Smith-Schuster at dynasty WR30, but Moore comes in down at WR65. There’s no comparison between the two players, and I don’t see that value separation changing wildly anytime soon
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