Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Keaontay Ingram, RB ARI
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit.
Name: Keaontay Ingram
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Arizona Cardinals
College Team: USC Trojans
Draft Status: Round six, 201st overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
COMBINE REVIEW
STRENGTHS
- Runs with good short-area quickness for his size.
- Can catch the ball out of the backfield.
- Shifty in space.
- Will chain together moves in the open field.
- Has the size of a three-down back
- Feet are efficient and quick.
- Can hit the home run once he gets up to speed.
WEAKNESSES
- His approach to the line of scrimmage needs improvement.
- Needs to trust his blockers more.
- Can be indecisive at times.
- Gets caught trying too hard to stretch out the play.
OPPORTUNITIES
The Arizona Cardinals are very ambiguous at the running back position. They are primed to have James Conner be the lead back this season. He is an older running back who has experienced his fair share of injuries throughout his career. There isn’t much tread left on his tires.
In front of him or working alongside him are Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin. Both running backs are good enough to use in a pinch but will never be considered world-beaters. Even with the team adding Williams recently in free agency, there is still a chance that he crawls his way up the depth chart.
Ingram will start the season as the team’s RB3 or RB4, but natural-running-back-attrition could present some opportunities. If something were to happen to Conner, the Cardinals are more than likely going to be grasping at straws to see which one of these running backs packs the most punch in the run game. They may think they have the answer from practice, but all it takes is one opportunity for Ingram to gain a large share of the touches.
How he would win in this situation is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He has decent size-adjusted speed and can run between the tackles. Combine that with his ability to swing out into the flat and catch some passes, and Ingram could provide some mid-season results in fantasy.
THREATS
Like all late-round prospects, the Cardinals don’t have much sunk cost invested in Ingram. They could cut him from the roster and think nothing of it. They could give other running backs more opportunities just because they are not compelled to provide Ingram with unlimited opportunities to succeed. Most running backs who are drafted in the sixth round don’t see a sizable share of the touches, let alone be productive in fantasy. This is a good depth chart for him, but if he doesn’t play well out of the gate, the team is just going to be looking for answers elsewhere.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Dynasty gamers should have limited expectations in the short term. We should expect him to float around the depth chart during his rookie season. Hopefully, there are good reports about him during training camp. He will need some luck to break his way for him to get the chance to prove himself during the season. From there, he has to play well for him to start receiving enough workload to be productive.
Overall, dynasty gamers should expect him to be on the roster and maybe get a few carries a game. There’s also a chance he hangs out on the practice squad. How he plays in training camp will dictate how his career starts his career.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Ingram is a late-round prospect who has all of the odds stacked against him. More than likely he’s going to develop into a journeyman running back who sits on the back of the depth chart. He might get some run as the lead back due to attrition but the odds of him becoming a feature back are slim to none.
It’s not like we haven’t seen outliers hit before. I believe we would know very soon if he has what it takes to compete at the NFL level. NFL teams don’t want to latch onto middling talent at the backend of their depth chart. He needs to earn a roster spot during his rookie season and then continue to work his way up the depth chart from there. If he goes stagnant, then he will eventually be replaced.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
It’s not a one-for-one comparison, but his change of direction skills are very comparable to David Johnson’s. Both running backs are good receivers out of the backfield. However, Johnson was more nuanced in the route-running department. Ingram is not near the athlete Johnson was in his prime. Both players also tend to try to stretch out the play too far instead of getting what’s available to them.
There are no direct comparisons to Ingram. There aren’t many 220-plus pound running backs who move laterally well. Saquon Barkley falls into this mold, but he’s a much better athlete along with a tremendous pedigree.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
According to DLF’s May Rookie ADP, Ingram is currently being drafted somewhere between the late third and early fourth round of rookie drafts with an ADP of 36.50. He is being selected as the RB13. Just like the Cardinals in the actual NFL Draft, dynasty gamers are valuing him as a dart throw at the end of their rookie drafts. He’s a player to stash at the end of your roster or taxi squad and see what happens.
There are a lot of players who are in a similar situation in the backend of rookie drafts. These are usually flashy late-round prospects who have something in their prospect profile that provides the notion that they have the potential to usurp the massive odds that are stacked against them. Some late-round picks hit in fantasy, but they are few and far between.
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