Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Moves to Make Before Week 15
The fantasy playoffs are here. If you are lucky enough to have the freedom of an extended (or none at all) trade deadline, there are still moves to be made. For everyone else, the focus is on the off-season and how to point dynasty rosters in the right direction heading into 2023. Here are five transactions you should consider before week 15:
Nico Collins, WR HOU – Buy
Collins missed the week 14 game with a foot injury and might be off the radar for many dynasty managers to end the season. He is definitely one of those players without significant pedigree and bound to be one many dynasty managers assume will face significant competition in 2023. With that said, Collins ranks inside the top 40 in market share, yards per route run, targets per route run, route run rate and air yards share. Although his ceiling might be capped, I am absolutely penciling him in as a threshold wide receiver next season.
The Move – The goal is to obtain Collins if you need another receiver for less than a second-round pick. Adding a third round-pick to a lesser roster-clogger player is one avenue. Pivoting down off a more valuable wide receiver (Elijah Moore or Jahan Dotson) for Collins plus a pick is another way. Ultimately, look at your build and measure how many wide receivers you need. This is an early favorite for one of the players I will be buying aggressively this off-season.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR CLE – Sell
You might think this recommendation stems from the big performance in week 14. That does not hurt the case. However, the sell on Peoples-Jones ultimately hinges on the fact that his situation (Deshaun Watson suspended) and name cache is firing at the right time to cash in. Through 13 weeks, he ranks outside of the top 45 (minimum 250 snaps) in market share, yards per route run, targets per route run, route run rate and air yards share. Translated to dynasty terms? He is likely a back-end wide receiver, just above roster-clogger and can easily be sold. Take advantage.
The Move – I am not saying this is a bad player. I am simply recommending you sell for a second-round pick as he can likely be replaced by someone else much cheaper. Ultimately, he is your WR6/7/8 and that should not occupy a second-round price point on your roster. Consider selling at his WR64 (and rising in December) price, freeing a roster spot and back-filling with another wide receiver later.
KJ Osborn, WR MIN – Drop
I was massively invested in Osborn going into the 2022 season. He was one of the few random wide receivers I was willing to buy for a third-round pick with anticipation that he could give me “threshold” production with built-in injury upside should Adam Thielen get hurt. After all, he was attached to a historically efficient quarterback in Kirk Cousins (ranks 20th in EPA per play through week 14) who has performed poorly this season. I will not rule out Osborn has a chance to stay in this range going forward but he is likely to face significant competition for targets next year and thus, becomes a cut candidate heading into the off-season.
The Move – The first move is an attempt to sell Osborn. For anything. A fourth-round pick. Future FAAB dollars. ‘Any RB on a 53’. Ultimately, the roster spot is likely more valuable than carrying a wide receiver like this into the new year and the time to move is prior to the waiver wire locking.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR BUF – Sell/Drop
McKenzie as a drop follows the same logic as Osborn. He entered his sixth NFL season in 2022 with dynasty value for the first time. Much of the excitement for him was the past performance of Cole Beasley in the slot role and an offense attached to Josh Allen. The investment was fool’s gold as McKenzie ranks outside of the top 60 in market share, yards per route run, targets per route run, route run rate and air yards share. His time to fire was in 2022 and the shot did not hit the mark.
The Move – The first move is an attempt to sell McKenzie as well. A third-round pick would be the optimal price point, understanding he can be replaced with a name on waivers or even cheaper on the open market. It is possible you may only be able to get a fourth-round pick. Take advantage of the fact that he is still attached to Josh Allen and free up the roster spot before the season ends.
Mike Davis, RB FA – Add
This may be the grossest listing ever in the history of this series. Davis was waived by the Ravens as they activated JK Dobbins from injured reserve prior to week 14. Subsequently, the disappointing Davis failed to crack usefulness on the Ravens and will surely be cut in many dynasty leagues. Given the ‘Any RB on a 53’ strategy and the fact that it is time to start cleaning up the roster cloggers, I will be adding Davis as we head to the 2023 off-season.
The Move – This one is simple. Add him in leagues where you have roster spots available after dropping backup quarterbacks and wide receivers. He would be a low-priority add but sometimes, anyone with a path is viable. We are likely talking about leagues with thirty or more roster spots with very tightly dialed-in roster construction.
Conclusion – We are finally here! The playoffs begin this week and both contenders and pretenders have work to do. Continue to eye your roster for what you want it to look like in February and focus on getting there. You can do this subsequently while competing in the playoffs. Good luck in the first round!
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