2022 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Jahan Dotson, WR Penn State
If you’re not super tapped into college football, then you’re most likely unfamiliar with Jahan Dotson. Quite frankly, Dotson isn’t included in the majority of devy and dynasty analysts’ top-five rookie wide receiver rankings. However, by the time rookie drafts begin, dynasty managers will be well aware of the value he has to offer their fantasy teams.
AS A RECRUIT
Dotson originally committed to play for the UCLA Bruins but after a coaching change, he signed with his hometown Penn State. He had offers from 22 other schools including Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Georgia.
247 Sports and ESPN both graded Dotson as a four-star recruit. 247 Sports ranked him as the 192nd recruit and 36th-best wide receiver in the country. Meanwhile, he was the 139th recruit on ESPN’s 300 List and was their 19th-ranked wide receiver in the 2018 recruiting class.
Courtesy of ESPN.
Dotson broke most of the receiving records at Nazareth Area High School. He now holds school receiving records for receptions (187), receiving yards (2,755), and receiving touchdowns (40). He accumulated numerous accolades earning many all-state awards, was selected to several Pennsylvania all-star teams, and was the All-Conference MVP as a senior. Not much of a number’s person? Check out his highlights from his record-breaking sophomore season below.
Video courtesy of Hudl.
Dotson’s athletic accomplishments didn’t end on the football field and he was a standout in both basketball and track and field. He was a state champion in the 4×100 relay and the long jump in 2016 while winning conference championships in the 100 meters, 200 meters, and 4×100 relay in 2018.
COLLEGIATE CAREER
Statistics via Sports Reference.
Dotson’s collegiate career started slowly, with only 40 receptions for 691 yards and five touchdowns combined during his freshman and sophomore campaigns. He flashed his potential with five touchdowns in 2019 but he failed to eclipse a 20 percent share of the Nittany Lions’ receiving production in either season.
His junior season was a different story. He exploded for 52 receptions, 884 yards, and eight touchdowns in only nine games. He more than doubled his yards per team pass attempt (YPTMpA) with 2.9 receiving yards per pass attempt and a 42.7 percent seasonal dominator rating (average of the percentage of the team receiving yards and touchdowns), meeting important thresholds in both of these important metrics.
He opted to come back for his senior season and he didn’t disappoint. 91 receptions for 1,182 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns cemented him as a top-ten wide receiver prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft. His 40.9 percent seasonal dominator and 2.6 YPTMpA perfectly illustrate how Dotson dominated the Penn State passing attack as a dynamic weapon.
Are the stats still not getting it done? Here’s an eye-opening highlight video demonstrating what he was able to accomplish in college.
Video courtesy of Penn State Films on YouTube.
Statistics via Sports Reference.
Dotson adds another dimension to his game by impressing in the return game. Rotoviz’ Jon Moore explained the value of special teams stats back in 2015 and Dotson demonstrated his return ability throughout his career at Penn State. Over four years, he returned 25 punts for 338 yards and a touchdown while averaging 13.5 yards per return. This dynamism should help him see the field early in his NFL career.
ATHLETIC PROFILE
He arrived at University Park measuring 5’11” and weighed 165 pounds. His high school athletic testing didn’t turn any heads either despite being a smaller wide receiver. His change of direction was impressive, as he rated highly in the 20-yard shuttle, but he barely cracked the 40th percentile in any other drills.
Measurements courtesy of ESPN.
Regardless of his testing numbers, Dotson’s athleticism was evident on his high school film and he was a dominant sprinter and long jumper in high school. However, he was caught from behind in a key loss to Minnesota near the end of 2019. This motivated him to work on his speed. During the off-season heading into his senior year, Dotson was clocked running a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. He also worked hard adding muscle to his frame and weighed 184 pounds before his final collegiate season.
Overall, his speed, burst, and agility make him a quality NFL-caliber athlete. Plus, he has the leaping ability and strength to compete for 50-50 balls despite having a leaner build. An NFL executive went as far as mentioning Barry Sanders after watching Dotson’s playmaking ability. While Dotson most certainly isn’t Sanders, he’s a complete athlete who can win in a variety of ways in the NFL.
STRENGTHS
- Dominant age-adjusted production during his junior and senior seasons.
- A dynamic athlete with speed, agility, and burst to beat defenders with speed and wiggle.
- Smooth route runner who can win inside and outside due to a sound and technical route tree.
- Succeeds on all three levels: short passing, intermediate, and can stretch the field.
- Impressive run after the catch ability and can make defenders miss in the open field and small spaces.
- Reliable hands that allow him to make routine catches but has an impressive highlight real of SportsCenter top-ten level catches.
- Capable of winning against press coverage and high-pointing the ball despite a smaller frame.
- Special teams and return ability.
WEAKNESSES
- Not the size of a prototypical X wide receiver but this is overrated or double-counted to the point where size and athleticism should be ignored when evaluating wide receivers.
- Meets the age-20 breakout threshold but his lack of production during his freshmen and sophomore seasons is at a minimum noteworthy.
- His impressive dominator rating is in the 87th percentile but it’s slightly inflated by an abnormally high share of Penn State’s receiving touchdowns. His share of his team’s receiving yards is impressive but players with good analytical profiles who “bust” have had inflated touchdown market shares historically.
- Some fantasy managers ding four-year college players.
DRAFT VALUE
Dotson is more popular in the NFL scouting community than the devy or more numbers-driven side of fantasy football. He’s the consensus wide receiver six on NFL Mock Database which takes the average of 26 big boards, 218 first-round mock drafts, and 181 team-based mock drafts. He’s a consensus late first-round pick according to early mock drafts.
Graph courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
The NFL Networks Daniel Jeremiah has Dotson going 31st overall to the Tampa Bay Buccanneers in his initial 2022 Mock Draft. There’s a long way to go before the NFL Draft in April but Dotson seems to be a late first-round or at worst an early day two pick.
DYNASTY OUTLOOK
In early dynasty rookie mock drafts, Dotson is going early to mid-second round of superflex drafts. However, if he has late first-round NFL draft capital, lands with a good quarterback, and on a soft depth chart, he could easily slide into the back end of the first round of rookie drafts.
I’d be excited as a dynasty manager having an opportunity to draft a player like Dotson anywhere in the second round of my rookie drafts. He has intriguing upside at a relatively low cost compared to Treylon Burks or Garrett Wilson. Anytime you can land a first-round NFL draft pick in the second round of your rookie drafts, that’s an impressive value.
It’s still very early and Dotson has plenty of time to impress at the Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and the NFL Draft. Dynasty managers could have a first-round rookie pick in Dotson before it’s all said and done.
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