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The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown

We expand on some questions from this week’s Ask DLF show.

Jameis Winston

We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.

However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.

Let’s jump into this week’s first question!

Vik Z – Tyler Allgeier or Brian Robinson in PPR?

I understand why some dynasty managers prefer Allgeier over Robinson in rookie drafts. The Falcons have a far more wide-open depth chart than the Commanders. Allgeier only has to compete with aging veterans Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams, while Robinson faces Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic as opposition.

However, I always lean on the NFL Draft capital with mid-tier prospects. Robinson went in the third round, while Allgeier fell to the fifth round, representing a significant difference between the two players. I also believe that Robinson’s Alabama pedigree will give him a greater leash in the NFL. Therefore, even though it seems odd, I prefer Robinson over Allgeier. But, it’s important to note that May’s DLF rookie ADP disagrees with me, although DLF’s rookie rankings are on my side. So, there’s no clear consensus here.

Tonye187 – Rank please: Carson Wentz, Drew Lock, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston.

I actually really enjoyed this question, as it allowed me to break down some of the marginal quarterbacks. Those players barely matter in 1QB dynasty leagues, but they can have a massive impact on superflex dynasty leagues. In those formats, up to 24 quarterbacks start every week, and it can be even more in a 14 or a 16-team league.

Of these four players, Lock is by far the least valuable. I understand that the Seahawks currently only have Lock and Geno Smith as competitors for their starting job, but I can’t believe that an NFL franchise will enter a season with that type of quarterback room. I think either Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo will be the Seahawks’ 2022 starting quarterback, even via trade or free agency after their release.

Moving past Lock, I have Wentz as the third most valuable quarterback in this group. The Commanders traded for him this off-season, but none of his 2023 and 2024 contract is guaranteed.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Outside of 2018, Wentz has never completed more than 64% of his passes in any other season, and he is one of the most-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. I believe this is Wentz’s last year as a starter, and the Commanders will regret trading for him. They also drafted Sam Howell in the fifth round, although I expect him to be a long-term project behind a potential first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

After Wentz, Ryan is my next choice, as he possesses at least some stability over the next two years. The Colts traded for Ryan to replace Wentz as their starter, and they guaranteed his entire $35 million 2023 salary as a part of that deal. Therefore, it seems assured that Ryan will give dynasty managers two more years as a starter, even if he doesn’t have much of a fantasy or a dynasty value ceiling. The Colts also don’t believe in always having a succession plan behind an aging veteran quarterback, so they may not even draft a quarterback next year.

As for Ryan’s fantasy value, he hasn’t been a star for years.

Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

He’s declined from his peak finish of QB2 in 2018 to QB18 in 2021. While part of that decline may be related to the Falcons’ reduction in offensive weapons, the Colts don’t exactly have a loaded offense beyond Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor. However, QB2s are still valuable in superflex, and Ryan will give you two years of that type of production.

However, Winston is my clear top choice of all these quarterbacks. This off-season, the Saints re-signed him to a two-year, $28 million contract this off-season, including $21 million in guaranteed money. Next year, they could cut him, but they’d only save $4.4 million in cap space compared to $11.2 million in a dead cap. Additionally, the Saints traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles as part of their movements in this year’s NFL Draft, so they have no clear mechanism to replace Winston next year.

Therefore, I fully believe that the Saints want Winston to be their franchise quarterback. He’s only 28 years old, and he went 5-2 last year despite a complete lack of receiving weapons. Now, he should have Michael Thomas and Chris Olave as his top wide receivers, bringing back Winston’s fantasy value from Tampa Bay.

Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

Winston finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 43.06% of his starts on the Buccaneers and as a QB2 in 47.22% of them. Therefore, he was a usable superflex quarterback over 90% of the time, rarely ever busting or hurting your fantasy team. Notably, it didn’t matter how many interceptions he threw or how badly he played, as he produced solid fantasy numbers anyway. If he can combine his turnover-free 2021 campaign with his strong passing from his Buccaneers’ days, he can be a solid fantasy asset in New Orleans.

Nathan Wright – What are good startup strategies from the 11th spot in 1QB vanilla PPR startups?

In 1QB dynasty startups, my strategy is straightforward. If I don’t have a top-three pick and access to Jonathan Taylor, Ja’Marr Chase, or Justin Jefferson, I usually look to trade down in the draft, acquiring more second and third-round startup picks. In DLF’s May 1QB ADP data, Taylor, Chase, and Jefferson have raw ADPs between 2 and 2.33, while Najee Harris is fourth overall but with a raw ADP of 6.5. I’ve never seen such a clear tier at the top of drafts, as Taylor, Chase, and Jefferson occupied 16 of the 18 top-three slots across the six mock drafts.

As for the 11th spot, Javonte Williams is the 11th overall player in May’s ADP, but I see a massive tier from Harris at fourth overall even down to players like Kenneth Walker at 37th overall. I’d have almost zero interest in making my picks at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round, and I would try to use those picks to package for multiple later picks or acquire 2023 first-round picks. For example, I’d love to sell the 1.11 for the 2.11 and the 4.11 or the 2.11 and a 2023 first-rounder.

Of course, it’s challenging to give detailed startup advice in a static article, as every draft is different. However, the Ask DLF show is a great place to ask those questions if you’re live on the clock. I also suggest finding me on Twitter or exploring the DLF Forum for up-to-the-minute advice on startup picks and trades.

Oldack – Trade Tyreek Hill for Dalvin Cook and a 2025 first and second? Trading to a contending team that could fall off a cliff by 2024 so 2025 first could end up being lottery… thank you guys love the show.

I didn’t include this trade to discuss the merits of the deal, which I broke down on the show. Instead, I wanted to focus on 2025 rookie picks and how I don’t believe they should be available to trade in dynasty leagues. Allowing trades that far out can wreck leagues, potentially leaving a team without first-rounders for too many years.

I prefer to release picks two years out upon league rollover in January or February of that year, meaning that 2024 picks would drop when the league converted from 2021 to 2022. That way, teams have three years of picks to trade for a few months during the rookie draft season to increase activity but only two years to move the rest of the year. That system provides the best balance between league activity and stability.

The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
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BigDee
14 days ago

My question is – 2 large Potatoes VS a 10lb bag of Potatoes ??

Stoney Curtis
14 days ago

Careful in ranking Rookies based on “NFL Draft capital.” With that mode of thinking 5th round pick Aaron Jones would have been passed over for 3rd rd. pick D’Onta Foreman. Joe Williams and somebody named Donnel Pumphrey had higher “NFL Draft capital”, too.

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