2022 Dynasty Capsule: Houston Texans

Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we will not use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you will see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you are about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson (ADP = 124.67, QB14)

Honestly, I forgot that Watson was even on the Texans when I signed up to do this team capsule. The team deactivated him for each game this year, making him a healthy scratch throughout the 2021 season. Instead, they started Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, leading to a 4-13 record, similar to their 4-12 finish in 2020.

The Texans recently fired one-year head coach David Culley, and they’ve yet to replace him. However, Watson’s issues with the Texans surrounded the front office, not the coaching staff, so I doubt any head coaching hire would change his mind about never playing for the Texans again. Of course, Watson also has legal issues surrounding sexual assault claims, which have been in limbo for months now. If and when those resolve, he will find himself on another team, but I’ll save that speculation for a different article.

Davis Mills (ADP = 213.83, QB25)

For now, Mills is the Texans’ starting quarterback, as Watson remains away from the team and Taylor is a free agent. I believe Mills was the biggest surprise on the Texans this year, as he far outperformed expectations.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

As you can see, he completed 66.8% of his passes and threw 16 touchdowns compared to ten interceptions, both solid marks for a rookie. It’s especially impressive considering that he had few offensive weapons to work with, as Brandin Cooks was the only proven piece on the Texans’ entire 2021 offense.

However, Mills is somewhat shaky in his status as the Texans’ starter, as he was only a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Texans own the third overall pick and the third pick in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, which they may use to obtain a quarterback. They also could acquire other first-rounders in a potential Watson trade to increase their odds of drafting a quarterback at a good value, as no quarterback is likely worth the third overall selection in this year’s draft.

Therefore, Mills is a highly risky superflex asset during the early part of this off-season. I highly doubt the Texans bring in a veteran to replace him, given how well he played, although they sign a competent backup like Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky, or Andy Dalton. Right now, he seems overvalued at his current January DLF superflex ADP of QB24 and 81.25 overall. I wouldn’t select him anywhere near that price, either among quarterbacks or overall. I’d far prefer to take safer assets like Baker Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Daniel Jones, all of whom seem to have a 2022 starting job far more secured than Mills.

Tyrod Taylor (ADP = NR)

Taylor was fine at times filling in for Watson this year, but I doubt he ever sees another chance to start in the NFL. I’d consider hanging onto him in deep superflex dynasty leagues in case he becomes a high-value backup. However, that’s all he represents at this point.

RUNNING BACK

Rex Burkhead (ADP = 223, RB71)

The Texans cycled through running backs like crazy this year, with five different players seeing significant work. Of those, Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay ended the year on other teams, while Royce Freeman started with the Panthers before finishing the season with the Texans. Despite all that turnover, Burkhead led the team in carries, yards, and rushing touchdowns, taking 122 carries for 427 yards and three touchdowns.

The Texans rewarded Burkhead with a one-year contract extension for 2022, although I can’t imagine it’s as anything more than a veteran backup. The running back room will likely look entirely different next season. Considering that Burkhead turns 32 years old in July, he doesn’t represent a true dynasty asset.

David Johnson (ADP = 234, RB84)

For some of the last off-season, I believed Johnson would find some fantasy value in 2021. Even though he’s better known now for his role in the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Cardinals, Johnson had a decent season in 2020. He only played 13 games, but he showed efficiency, with 147 carries for 691 yards and six touchdowns. He also added receiving production, as he caught 33 of 46 targets for 314 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the RB21 in PPR formats.

Unfortunately, Johnson completely fell off the map in 2021, losing a camp battle to Ingram and Lindsay on the depth chart. Even after the Texans parted ways with Ingram and Lindsay, Burkhead then took the lead role ahead of Johnson, limiting Johnson to passing-game work. Johnson turned 30 in December, and he’s a free agent entering the off-season. Someone might give him one last contract as a depth piece, but he no longer carries dynasty value.

WIDE RECEIVER

Brandin Cooks (ADP = 73.83, WR37)

Cooks was the only Texans’ skill position player to provide any fantasy value in 2021. Despite the mediocre quarterback play, he again recorded a solid season, comparable to his previous numbers.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

He slightly regressed in yards per game from 2020, but he saw a few more targets and receptions to make up for that. It makes sense, as the Texans lost Will Fuller in free agency, and they essentially failed to replace him whatsoever. Outside of Cooks, Collins, and David Johnson, no other Texans’ receiver had more than 40 targets, so Cooks was their clear top target.

I also want to take a look at Cooks’ fantasy career graphically.

Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

Outside of a concussion-plagued down year in 2019, Cooks finished between the WR10 and WR21 from 2015 to 2021. He did that despite playing on four different teams in that span, showing that he can maintain fantasy value no matter the offense he plays in and with any quarterback.

Moving forward, Cooks remains under contract for one more year with the Texans at a $16.2 million cap hit before his contract automatically voids before the 2023 league year opens. Considering that the Texans would take a $7.5 dead cap hit to release Cooks, I doubt they do so before the 2022 season. He was also their primary receiving weapon, and they need him, either for Mills or for a new quarterback.

Unfortunately, I’m not super interested in Cooks at his current price of WR37 and 73.83 overall. However, he was around 90 overall in ADP in the previous two months, and he will likely fall back around there once the 2022 rookies enter ADP data in February. If his price continues to drop, I may consider acquiring him during rookie fever season in May and June.

Nico Collins (ADP = 137.5, WR61)

Collins is the only other dynasty-relevant wide receiver on the Texans, and he finished second on the team with 33 receptions and 60 targets. He converted those receptions into 446 yards and a touchdown, far from fantasy-relevant. But considering that he was a third-round pick on a terrible offense, I found myself impressed with Collins’ rookie year.

I suspect that the Texans will likely add something at wide receiver to complement Cooks and Collins, and Collins will fight with that addition for the WR2 spot. If Mills makes a step forward in year two, Collins has every chance to progress into a fantasy-relevant asset. I wrote about him before the season, and I discussed him twice in my Six Pack and Monday Hangover series, in weeks eight and 15. It’s always difficult to trade for someone like Collins directly, but I would try to throw him into a more significant deal or draft him in a startup draft.

TIGHT END

Brevin Jordan (ADP = 184.67, TE22)

I loved Jordan during the 2021 pre-draft process, as he was my clear TE3 behind Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth. However, he plummeted during the real-life 2021 NFL Draft, going off the board as the TE9 and the 147th overall pick in the fifth round. He went behind complete non-prospects like John Bates and Luke Farrell. For me, his fall was one of the biggest fantasy-relevant stunners of the entire NFL Draft.

Jordan then struggled to adapt to the NFL, as he was a healthy scratch until week eight. However, he eventually worked his way into a somewhat important role for the Texans, supplanting Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins on the depth chart. He finished the year with 20 catches on 28 targets for 178 yards and three touchdowns in only nine games played, which is excellent for a fifth-round rookie at tight end.

The best part of Jordan’s dynasty outlook is his age, as he doesn’t even turn 22 until July. In addition, both Akins and Brown are free agents, leaving Jordan as the clear top tight end on the current roster. Of course, the Texans could make a splash in the free agency market with someone like Evan Engram or David Njoku, which would kill Jordan’s value. But if they don’t, I’m intrigued in stashing him for next season in hopes of a second-year breakout.

2022 Dynasty Capsule: Houston Texans