2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Ja’Marr Chase, WR from LSU. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
2019 Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase is still considered a top-tier wide receiver in the 2021 NFL Draft despite opting out of the 2020 NCAA season. He was the leading offensive weapon on the National Champion LSU Fighting Tigers ahead of teammates Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Justin Jefferson, and Terrace Marshall Jr.
Let’s analyze what makes Chase such a highly-rated wide receiver prospect.
THE STATS
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Chase averaged six receptions, 127.1 receiving yards, and 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game during his award-winning sophomore season. Only two wide receivers have had a higher single-season yards-per-reception average than his 21.2 since 2003 (minimum 60 receptions). His 20 receiving touchdowns are tied for the tenth most in a season in NCAA history while his 1,780 receiving yards are the 14th-most in NCAA history.
Chase has an age-19 breakout age, eclipsing the 30 percent threshold with a 31.2 percent seasonal dominator rating. Despite being on a high-volume offense at LSU, he posted an elite 1.66 yards per team attempt during his sophomore season (yards per team attempt is a very useful stat when predicting NFL success). It was quite impressive considering that’s 0.23 yards per team attempt more than the historical average for successful NFL wide receivers. When compared to other wide receivers from the SEC, his yards per team attempt are 0.61 more than the conference average.
Image from DLF’s College Market Share App.
When adjusting Chase’s production for age, he fits well above the trend line for successful NFL wide receivers.
Per Pro Football Focus, Chase is the complete package. He forced 22 missed tackles, caught 24 deep targets, gained 558 yards out of the slot, and had 16 contested catches.
THE FILM
Watch All-22 film, complete games, and highlight clips in our DLF Film Room.
CONTESTED CATCH
Chase’s bread and butter. He is a beast at making these contested catches. He fights through contact and attacks the ball at the catch point. In Clip 3 he is dragging the defender the entire route to the catch. He is going up against top tier DBs in these clips. pic.twitter.com/yAaPsgbQHq
— Tyler_FF (@Tyler_FF_) March 2, 2021
Chase has excellent hands. According to PFF, he had a 5.6 percent drop rate on 121 targets. His sure hands translated to 16 contested catches which were tied for 13th-most in college football in 2019.
YAC
Chase turns his physicality into YAC. He breaks tackles and shows his contact balance (again very RB-esque in the open field). He also shows he is able to follow his blockers to gain those extra yards in Clips 1 and 3. He isn’t super shifty, but his physicality makes up pic.twitter.com/4ZlIzPawYN
— Tyler_FF (@Tyler_FF_) March 2, 2021
Chase excels at breaking tackles and creating yards after the catch. Per PFF, he forced 22 missed tackles and accrued 684 yards after the catch. His 8.1 yards after the catch per reception was the tenth most in the country for wide receivers with at least 50 targets and an aDOT over 12.0.
RELEASE
I noticed that DBs like to play physical at the LOS w/Chase. He shows he can make them pay with a solid release to create separation (clip 1). Clip 2 is another nice outside release (gets help from a pick). He doesn’t get the ball in Clip 4 but it’s a nice inside release pic.twitter.com/CXrpTF2lOY
— Tyler_FF (@Tyler_FF_) March 2, 2021
Creating a good release off the line of scrimmage is essential for the NFL’s top wide receivers. Chase dominated with his release against man coverage and received an elite 92.4 PFF Grade against man coverage.
THE MEASURABLES
Image from Relativeathleticscores.com.
One of the few criticisms and question marks with Chase’s profile has been his athleticism. He emphatically quieted the doubters after an impressive pro day.
Chase weighed in at just over 200 pounds and a hair over six feet while posting an impressive 23 reps at 225 pounds on the bench press. He answered questions about his speed with a speedy sub-4.40-second 40-yard dash while exceeding expectations in the shuttle and three-cone drills.
DYNASTY VALUE
In the latest DLF March 2021 Superflex Dynasty ADP, Chase is going in the fifth round of startups as the WR14. I personally have him as a top-ten dynasty wide receiver given his projected top-ten NFL Draft capital and his elite age-adjusted college production.
In superflex rookie drafts Chase is going as the 1.04 and the WR1 according to DLF Superflex Rookie ADP. I could be convinced to pass on two of the top-four quarterbacks in superflex formats but I’d lean the quarterbacks over Chase. However, I’m confidently selecting Chase over the running backs in rookie drafts despite typically favoring the running back position in rookie drafts.
CONCLUSION
Ja’Marr Chase is the odds-on favorite to be the first wide receiver selected in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has elite age-adjusted production and finished 2019 with one of the best wide receiver seasons in NCAA history.
Chase has the size, requisite athleticism, and skills necessary to be a top-12 dynasty wide receiver and is almost valued that highly before fantasy managers know his landing spot. Dynasty managers should be targeting him in the fourth and fifth rounds of startups and in the top-five picks of superflex rookie drafts.
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