2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Trey Sermon, RB Ohio State
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Trey Sermon, RB from Ohio State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
The 2021 NFL Draft class does not have the most attractive group of running backs. From top to bottom, there are a lot of red flags. Situation and draft capital are going to provide the best indicator to which running back will have the clearest path to success.
Trey Sermon has been falling under the radar this year. Like the other running backs in his class, he also has some glaring red flags in his profile. However, from a cost perspective, given his skill set, he could deliver the most bang for our buck if allowed to succeed.
THE STATS
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
Sermon finished his true freshman season with the second-most rushing yards on the team. He was behind Rodney Anderson, who had a mega-year, rushing for 1,161 yards and 13 touchdowns. Sermon had his first big game against Baylor when he rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He followed that performance with two straight games with 90 rushing yards or more and was proclaimed All-Big 12 Honorable Mention for Offensive Freshman of the Year.
The heat turned on during his sophomore season when he rushed for 13 touchdowns. He ranked third on the team in rushing production, trailing Kennedy Brooks and Kyler Murray. His best game of the season came against Texas Tech, when he rushed for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Sermon recorded four 100-yard rushing performances on the season – against Army, TCU, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
His junior season was cut short after suffering a left knee injury against Iowa State that caused him to miss the final five games of the season. Before the injury, he was co-starring in the backfield with Brooks which significantly capped his production. He recorded double-digit touches in just two games. His best performance came during the first week of the season against Houston, when he rushed for 91 yards and caught two passes for 25 yards. It was a good start to the season, but after the Houston game, the production dried up.
During the following off-season, the news hit the media of him entering the transfer portal. Sermon eventually signed with Ohio State and was projected to be the team’s starting back early one after Master Teague suffered an Achilles injury. Teague was able to rehab to full health and was in a position to split carries with Sermon.
His short tenure at Ohio State was a slow burn to production. Sermon rushed for 232 yards in his first four games before erupting for a massive 636 yards in his final three games. He broke Eddie George’s single-game rushing record by rushing for 331 yards against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game. The senior running back broke multiple long runs. Unfortunately, against Alabama, in the College Football Championship, he had to leave early with an injury, preventing him from performing on the biggest stage of the season.
THE FILM
Posted above is Sermon’s record-breaking game against Northwestern. This game provides a clear depiction of what he will provide on the field for his NFL team. He showcases all angles of his game, from his approach to the line of scrimmage to how he moves in the open field.
Trey Sermon won this foot race to the end zone ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/KynUeMx8Hi
— ESPN (@espn) January 2, 2021
Sermon is far from a burner, but if he’s given daylight, he’s more than fast enough to make the defense pay. There are instances where he gets caught from behind by defenders. From a functionality standpoint, he can still eat up chunks of yardage when he hits the open field. We can’t have the expectations of him breaking off 60-yard runs on the regular because that’s not going to happen.
Everything about this run is great, but the hurdle at the end is bonkers. Man went from regaining his balance, to stiff arm, to seeing another defender diving at his feet at then jumped over him while moving laterally — Go off, Trey Sermon pic.twitter.com/EBlopHm7q1
— Bill Landis (@BillLandis25) December 22, 2020
His footwork sets him apart from most of the running backs in this year’s class. He’s a smooth operator who can move laterally very well. Sermon can naturally maintain his balance while making sharp cuts. Not only does he have smooth footwork, but he sees the field very well. He is very efficient at noticing the running lanes during this approach to the line of scrimmage. His timing and vision in the open field allow him to tack on extra yards to his runs.
That Trey Sermon stiff arm pic.twitter.com/lGkBfCBvB0
— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) April 2, 2021
We see him do his best work in the open field. For a running back who isn’t considered a speedster, he does a good job of maximizing his opportunities. Sermon has a good stiff arm to keep defenders at bay. He finishes his runs and will routinely get lower than the tackler to win at the point of contact.
THE MEASURABLES
At his pro day, Sermon measured in at six foot even and weighed 215 pounds. On that track, he registered 4.60 and 4.57-second 40-yard dash times, equating to a 96.0 size-adjusted speed score. His 40-time was very predictable considering what we saw from him on tape.
The exciting part of his athletic metrics came from his 37-inch vertical jump and his 10-foot-5 broad jump. He’s a very explosive player and is one of the most explosive running backs in this year’s class. His burst metrics are an indicator of why he’s a dangerous threat in the open field.
Sermon’s 6.83-second three-cone should have been expected. This provides the notion that he’s one of the shiftiest running backs in the class. As we know from watching the film, he runs well in short spaces and can eat up a lot of ground while moving laterally. His smooth footwork played a big part in excelling in the three-cone drill.
DYNASTY VALUE
Sermon is currently falling the later part of the second round of rookie drafts with a 23.70 average draft position according to DLF’s March Rookie ADP. He is generally the eighth running back selected off the board behind Michael Carter and Jermar Jefferson. As we know from his tape, production metrics, and athletic specs, he’s a breakout candidate if he lands in the right situation with good draft capital.
In startup drafts, we are seeing him fall to the double-digit rounds with a 126.83 ADP and is usually the 43rd running back off the board. Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, and Alexander Mattison are some notable veterans who are being drafted directly behind him.
His long-term fantasy value will be dependent on how quickly he can garner a sizeable role with his NFL team. If he’s stuck on the backend of the depth chart, then we will see him fall in value. If there’s a pathway to touches, then he could be a candidate to break out sooner than later.
CONCLUSION
When you consider the overall price, the fact that he played well for two different collegiate programs, and has an interesting athletic profile, Sermon is one of the more fascinating rookies in this year’s class. You could easily make a case for his success if he gets draft to the right team.
On the other hand, since he has an injury riddles college career, can’t shred defenses with speed, it’s easy to say that he could be nothing more than just a role player at the next level. Considering running backs set the premium in fantasy. He might be worth the risk if he hits.
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