Sunday Six Pack: Week 13
The fantasy football community lost a great person recently when Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros passed away from COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the disease. His shocking and sudden passing has left a huge void behind the scenes in the industry and he leaves behind a beautiful family, including Tabbie (Mike’s wife) and their children, Alyssa (18) and Jonathan (4). Many have rallied to support the Tagliere family and there’s a GoFundMe account set up to do just that. If any of you feel the calling to give, there are few people better to support than “Tags.” He will be missed!
This Sunday Six Pack is a traditional article at DLF and a part of our content strategy for over six years. As always, we will cover six dynasty-relevant storylines to watch on the Sunday slate of NFL games. I’m honored to be here every week, putting my spin on this series. Most excitingly, it’s become a two-part article this year! Every Monday, my Hangover article will drop, reviewing the Six Pack based on what happened on Sunday. Without further ado, let’s jump straight into the first storyline!
Jaylen Waddle’s Meteoric Rise
It’s time to take Waddle seriously because he’s the real deal for both fantasy football and the NFL.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference,
Right now, he easily leads the Dolphins in all receiving categories, with only tight end Mike Gesicki even anywhere near his numbers. I’m incredibly impressed that Waddle crossed the 100-target mark in only 12 games as a rookie, averaging about 8.5 targets per game.
Most notably, Waddle is the WR11 in PPR scoring, although he hasn’t had his bye week yet. Even in PPG, he’s still a high-end asset, coming in 18th among wide receivers, ahead of notable players like Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, and DJ Moore. Considering he was the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, there’s no reason why Waddle shouldn’t be a top dynasty asset.
The Dolphins face the Giants this week, giving Waddle another beatable matchup. DeVante Parker may return for this contest, but he shouldn’t take away Waddle’s top role, especially as Will Fuller remains out with a finger injury. I currently rank Waddle as the dynasty WR14 and 21st overall player in 1QB rankings, miles ahead of his ADP and his DLF consensus rank. At this point, Waddle is one of my favorite players to watch, and I’m excited to see him again this week.
Is Dallas Goedert Overvalued and Overrated?
As you likely know, Goedert has had multiple events this season that should signal a rise in his future dynasty value. First, the Eagles traded longtime tight end Zach Ertz to the Cardinals in mid-October, leaving the door open for Goedert to assume a full-time role as the Eagles’ dominant tight end. They then signed Goedert to a massive four-year, $57 million contract extension with $35 million guaranteed, locking him up through 2025. The Eagles would have to pay over $10 million in dead cap to release him before the end of the agreement, so he’s their man for the foreseeable future.
However, Goedert’s fantasy production hasn’t been good enough in 2021 thus far. He’s currently only the TE15 with 8.74 fantasy PPG. Hunter Henry and Tyler Conklin have outproduced him on a per-game basis this year, while CJ Uzomah and Tyler Higbee have similar production. Most worryingly, Goedert hasn’t done much better after the Ertz trade.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
Goedert averages more fantasy points with Ertz in the lineup, although he has more volume without him. Either way, his numbers without Ertz are not good enough. Most dynasty managers thought he would be a sure-fire top-five tight end play once Ertz left, and that has not happened.
The Eagles face the lowly Jets this week, which should give Goedert every opportunity to succeed. However, if he performs similarly to last week, where he had one catch for zero yards, dynasty managers may rightfully panic. I currently rank Goedert at dynasty TE7 just ahead of Pat Freiermuth, Mike Gesicki, Dawson Knox, and Noah Fant, but he won’t hold that value much longer without some better fantasy games.
Tyler Johnson’s Opportunity
I won’t get too much into the recent news surrounding Antonio Brown, but the NFL suspended him for three games for violating COVID-19 protocols and lying about his vaccination status. Therefore, the Buccaneers’ high-powered offense has a hole at WR3, opening up an opportunity for Johnson to shine. Of course, Johnson isn’t anywhere near Brown as a wide receiver, but he’s done well since Brown went down in week six.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He’s played between 64 and 73% of offensive snaps in each of those five contests after week six, filling in Brown’s role almost exactly. Yes, he hasn’t had a lot of massive games, but I liked his talent as a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. I doubt the Buccaneers retain Brown for 2022 after this latest fiasco, and Chris Godwin is also a free agent.
Johnson is a pure stash play, but the Buccaneers face the putrid Falcons’ defense this week. I’m not saying to put him in your starting lineup, although I’d like to add him onto my dynasty bench before this week. If he flashes, another manager will likely pick him up as an off-season stash instead.
James Conner’s Final Showcase Game
The Cardinals lost starting running back Chase Edmonds to a high ankle sprain in week nine, and he may return in week 14. Since then, Conner has dominated for fantasy football, taking 77% or more of offensive snaps in each game with the lion’s share of touches. Somehow, Conner has 12 rushing touchdowns on only 146 carries this season, placing him second in the NFL behind only Jonathan Taylor.
However, Conner only averages 3.8 YPC on his carries this year, the worst mark of his career. He also has demonstrated competence in the receiving game, though, catching 18 of 20 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he hasn’t suffered any significant injuries this year, proving that he can withstand an entire season.
This week, the Cardinals face the Bears, so they may face a positive game script. If Conner plays well, he could secure a decent contract for next season as a starter or at least the lead back in a committee. But if he puts up a dud and Edmonds comes back in week 14, his dynasty value will likely crater. I’m also curious to see if the Cardinals decide to utilize Eno Benjamin at all or if he’s simply not a part of their future plans.
Cole Kmet: Fantasy Asset or Not?
Kmet represents a potential clash between fantasy football and real-life football. I do not doubt that he’s the Bears’ long-term solution at the tight end position. I wrote about Kmet in one of my earliest DLF articles back in February, where I noted that he became a full-time player down the stretch of the 2020 season. He didn’t produce much as a receiver as Jimmy Graham vultured touchdowns, but I expected that to change in 2021.
Unfortunately, the Bears decided to retain Graham for the 2021 season. He only has six receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown, but among tight ends, every little bit counts. Kmet isn’t having a bad season, with 37 receptions on 57 targets for 361 yards and a touchdown, but those numbers are only good for the TE22. Considering he only averages 6.65 fantasy PPG, you can likely only start Kmet in 2TE leagues.
However, it’s clear the Bears love Kmet for their offense.
Chart courtesy of DLF Snap Count App.
He’s played over 70% of snaps in every game and over 85% in six of them. The Bears need another reliable receiving weapon to complement Darnell Mooney, especially as Allen Robinson will leave after this year. Hopefully, Kmet can show more as a receiver this week against the Cardinals.
Dalvin Cook’s Backups
Last week, Cook suffered a shoulder injury, which will force him to miss a few games. Most dynasty managers know about Alexander Mattison, Cook’s direct backup. The Vikings picked Mattison in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft as insurance for Cook, and he’s stepped in well in Cook’s absences in the past. In weeks three and five this year, Mattison had 26 and 25 carries, going over 100 yards in both games. He also totaled 13 receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown in those two contests.
However, the Vikings also spent a fourth-round pick this year on Kene Nwangwu, a running back and kick returner. He’s not the same player, but that pick reminded me of when the Cowboys chose Tony Pollard in the fourth round a few years back. They intended to use Pollard as a returner, but he eventually grew into Ezekiel Elliott’s clear backup and complement.
Nwangwu began the season on injured reserve, and he didn’t make his NFL debut until week eight. He only has two carries for 16 yards so far, but he flashed on two long kickoff return touchdowns. The Vikings have no other significant running backs behind Cook, Mattison, and Nwangwu, so I expect Nwangwu to operate as Mattison’s backup until Cook returns.
Of course, Mattison represents an excellent fantasy play this week against the Lions. The Lions are a terrible defense, and Mattison is a fantasy RB1, even if he only gets 70-75% of the touches. But I’m more interested in seeing something from Nwangwu, who’s more of an unknown. Either way, I’d make sure to add him to my dynasty rosters before this week kicks off, just in case.
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