NFL Draft Dynasty Fantasy Football: Day One Recap
The anticipation of the NFL Draft has been building for months in dynasty leagues and tonight’s draft felt a little more like normal, despite the coronavirus still having an impact on things. Honestly, it felt comforting to see things happening in a non-virtual environment. Roger Goodell’s recliner still made an appearance, as did several of tomorrow’s dynasty stars in what became a pretty exciting night. Let’s break down round one and review the dynasty impact.
1 (1) – Trevor Lawrence, QB JAX
Lawrence being drafted by the Jaguars has been the worst kept secret for some time and now it’s finally official. He’ll bring an amazing resume to the NFL that includes the fact he’s never lost a regular season game. Lawrence is more mobile than many give him credit for, has an amazing arm, shows veteran savvy and will lead the Jaguars from day one as a player not afraid of the spotlight. After throwing for 10,098 yards and 90 touchdowns with just 17 interceptions over his three years at Clemson, Lawrence is an easy pick at the 1.01 in 2QB / Superflex drafts and a likely first round selection in conventional formats. Simply put, few quarterbacks have ever entered the league with a better resume and skill set than Lawrence. He’s the best prospect we’ve seen since Andrew Luck and is as close to a “can’t miss” player as you can safely project at the toughest position in sports. Having a good supporting cast in Jacksonville should fast track his development.
1 (2) – Zach Wilson, QB NYJ
The Jets had targeted Wilson for the past few months and now it’s official. With a very exciting skill set that includes an incredibly live arm and the ability to make some throws only a handful of humans can make, Wilson hopes to provide New York with the spark they’ve longed for since the days of Joe Namath. It’s a risky proposition for the Jets as they gave up pretty early on former top three pick Sam Darnold and refused to trade the pick away for a King’s ransom in the process. The Jets will need to surround Wilson with talent all over the field to make him successful, but he’s a serious talent and has one trait you love – accuracy. Time will tell just how big of a risk this is, but Wilson should have a chance to succeed early. He’ll be in the mix for a top five pick in superflex drafts and a likely second or third round pick in 1QB formats. The Jets added Corey Davis this off-season, but they’ll need to do more.
1 (3) – Trey Lance, QB SF
The first real surprise of the night happened early as most expected the 49ers to take Mac Jones. While Jones may have been their target when they traded for the No. 3 pick a month ago, Lance clearly won them over in the end. The 49ers sent the No. 12 pick this year, a first- and third-round pick in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023 in exchange for Lance, so it’s a massive gamble on a player who has started only 17 games in his college career, all at a lower level. Still, Lance is a dynamic prospect who could have the highest ceiling of any player in this year’s draft, regardless of position. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have likely staked their careers on this pick and will really need it to hit. If not, there are going to be a lot of folks at the unemployment office. Lance has a salivating upside, though. He’s a player who just one year ago threw for 2,786 yards, ran for another 1,100 and accounted for 42 touchdowns with zero (yes, zero) interceptions. With Lance in the fold, the chances of San Francisco trading Jimmy Garoppolo have been minimized as he’ll likely be expected to be a bridge quarterback. Lance will be a high ceiling and low floor prospect who dynasty owners may have to wait a year to see. His upside will make him a high first round pick in 2QB / Superflex leagues and likely a second or third round selection in conventional formats. Simply put, there’s no player in this year’s class more polarizing than Lance. In fact, he may be the biggest question mark in the history of the NFL Draft.
1 (4) – Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
The Falcons now boast an offense featuring Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and the dynamic Pitts. Many believe Pitts is the best tight end prospect in NFL Draft history. And yes, you read that right. While that doesn’t mean he’ll be the next Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, his skill set and measurables say he can be and that’s enough to get excited about. Matt Ryan loved Tony Gonzalez when he had him and Pitts is going to be a serious weapon in the Atlanta offense. He should usurp Hayden Hurst in the starting lineup right away and become a matchup nightmare for cornerbacks and linebackers alike. Pitts is going to be a bit of a risky pick in dynasty leagues moving forward. While he could be a true difference maker in the mold of Kelce or Waller, he could also produce numbers more in line with the rest of the TE1s, making his value much less attractive. For dynasty owners who take a risk, the reward here could be great and they’re going to have to use a high or mid-first round pick to get him. If Pitts is the star many believe he’s going to be, that’s an easy investment. If not, you’re going to burn a high first round rookie selection on someone with the value of a player like Jared Cook has had throughout his career.
1 (5) –Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN
The Bengals promised Joe Burrow some weapons and now have one of the best young wide receiver duos in the form of Chase and Tee Higgins. Simply dominant a year ago, Chase will immediately become an alpha receiver for the Bengals and add a serious receiving threat in the offense. The last season he played with his former (and now current) quarterback, he was catching 84 passes for a whopping 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns en route to helping bring a National Title to back to LSU. The Bengals now have the best receivers on their roster since Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh tore up the league with Carson Palmer a decade ago. Chase will be a candidate for the top pick in rookie drafts this Spring and Summer. In fact, it’s going to be tough for anyone to overtake him as the top pick in non-Superflex formats.
1 (6) – Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
Miami added Will Fuller in the off-season and have now added the explosive Waddle to the offense just a few months later. A true burner with Tyreek Hill-like ability, Waddle should add another explosive option and give young quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a chance to succeed. It’s easy to forget just how good Waddle was in college after he suffered an injury last year and was overshadowed by teammate DeVonta Smith. Still, Waddle averaged a ridiculous 19 yards per catch over his three years at Alabama and is a threat to take any play to the house. Waddle is going to be coveted in the upper half of round one in most dynasty drafts as an explosive difference maker in fantasy and reality. If Tua Tagovailoa can turn into the player many believe he can be, Waddle is going to be a terror for years to come. He’s one of the best playmakers we’ve seen enter the draft in quite some time.
1 (10) – DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
The Eagles were one of the most active teams on the trade front this off-season and ended up at the tenth spot after a trade with Dallas to ensure their selection of Smith. While much can be said about the “Slim Reaper’s” size and smallish stature, there’s no doubting his production. He posted a ridiculous 117 catches for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns last year at Alabama, becoming the first wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy since Desmond Howard. The Eagles needed to add skill players around new quarterback Jalen Hurts and now have Smith and Jalen Reagor to build around. Smith could prove to be a value in fantasy leagues as a mid-first round selection with some salivating upside. Many have compared his game to Marvin Harrison and for those who don’t remember Marvelous Marvin, look him up and get excited.
1 (11) – Justin Fields, QB CHI
The Andy Dalton era in Chicago may prove to be pretty short. The Bears struck out with Mitchell Trubisky a few years ago, passing on players like Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in the process. Chicago just wasn’t willing to do that again and moved up to secure the next best thing. While Fields isn’t a sure thing (few are), the Bears have never had a 4,000 yard passer in their franchise history and were in dire need of a long-term answer at the position. Fields will get an alpha receiver in Allen Robinson and an emerging player in Darnell Mooney to start his career, which isn’t terrible. While Chicago has never been a great place for quarterback fantasy production, Fields provides the Bears with the most explosive athlete they’ve ever had at the position. Matt Nagy is under fire in Chicago, so expect the Fields era to start sooner, rather than later as well. He’ll be a high risk and high reward player to take towards the top of 2QB / Superflex formats and a likely second or third round pick in 1QB formats this off-season. Fields could easily be the best fantasy quarterback to come out of this class or totally flame out as every other quarterback of note has in Chicago. Personally, I think the Bears may have finally found their long-term answer.
1 (15) – Mac Jones, QB NE
Unreal. While everyone else was zigging and zagging their way through the draft and posturing for their quarterback of the future, the Patriots sat at #15 and had Jones fall right into their laps. While the comparisons to Tom Brady are both unfair and unrealistic, Jones does fit the profile of a perfect “Belichickian” quarterback as an accurate passer who makes solid decisions and won’t bury a team with awful mistakes. He also fits the style of offense the Patriots thrived with under Brady. While he may not usurp Cam Newton right away, Jones is clearly the quarterback of the future in New England and his maturity could lead him to the starter’s role in week one. He will be a third round rookie selection who doesn’t have the dynamic athletic profile of some other passers in this class, but lands in a situation where he should be taught how to play and brought along at the right pace. Jones is also going to be a very intriguing selection in 2QB / Superflex leagues.
1 (20) – Kadarius Toney, WR NYG
The Giants were linked to DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle over the past couple of months, but chose to trade down and land Toney at #20 instead. An explosive playmaker, Toney joins a crowded depth chart that features Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard. Still, this is a player who has the ability to break a game open on any play and he should find a way to get on the field early and often. The addition of Toney may be frowned upon in dynasty circles as the depth chart in New York is pretty full, but this may be more of an indictment on Shepard and Slayton than anything else. Toney is likely a second round rookie draft pick this off-season. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones is out of excuses. If you can’t make it work with this group of receivers, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley, you’re out of excuses.
1 (24) – Najee Harris, RB PIT
The Steelers had been linked to Harris for the better part of the past month and the smoke became fire when he fell to them. Harris will immediately step in as the starting running back in Pittsburgh, ending the committee experiment that has featured the likes of Benny Snell, James Conner, Anthony McFarland and Jaylen Samuels over the past couple of years. Harris was dominant last season in Alabama with 1,466 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns, showing power and explosiveness in the process. The Steelers still have work to do on the offensive line, but this seems like the perfect spot for Harris, who looks to be the only real threat to Ja’Marr Chase to be the top offensive player taken in rookie drafts this off-season. Expectations could be too high early for Harris as the Steelers have some serious offensive line issues to take care of, but he’s a serious talent and Mike Tomlin teams have thrived when he has a truly dominant featured runner.
1 (25) – Travis Etienne, RB JAX
That giant thud you hear is a jaw dropping from a James Robinson owner near you. After taking the league by storm last year, Robinson will now share a backfield with the dynamic Etienne, who should help form a formidable committee in Jacksonville. This move is a classic pick that’s better in reality than fantasy. Etienne is a great prospect, but he won’t just make Robinson completely disappear. While he should rise to the top at some point and be the 1A to Robinson’s 1B, there were better landing spots for the former Clemson star. The chances of Etienne being the top player taken in dynasty drafts are likely done now. Still, he’s a solid top five selection and his talent will make him a weapon in dynasty leagues for years to come – owners may just need to be a little more patient than they had hoped. In time, Robinson is likely going to become a change of pace back to Etienne, but it may not happen right away. As a side note, this is the first time in draft history where a quarterback and their running back were both drafted in the first round by the same team.
1 (27) – Rashod Bateman, WR BAL
The Ravens were in dire need of a solid wide receiver (sorry Sammy Watkins) and ended up with Bateman in the end. It’s easy to forget just how dominant Bateman was, but he could very well end up being the best receiver in this entire draft. Still, this landing spot isn’t idea as Lamar Jackson has yet to show he can consistently support a top receiver in fantasy. That being said, Bateman should be the top target over Marquise Brown in short order and there are few players in the draft with the ceiling he has. Unfortunately, his floor is now low being in a run-centric offense with the Ravens. Bateman represents a high risk and high reward pick in the first round of rookie drafts. If you’re a Bateman believer picking in the middle or late part of round one, he’s likely going to drop to you. Had he gone to a team like Green Bay, the chances of that would have been more remote.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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