2021 Dynasty Capsule: Indianapolis Colts

Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we will not use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you will see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you are about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

While they ultimately succumbed to the Buffalo Bills by three points in a tight Wild Card contest, the 2020 rendition of the Indianapolis Colts had no reason to be ashamed. A previously sleepy 2019 offense woke up under gap-filling bridge quarterback Philip Rivers, scoring 90 more points en route to an 11-5 record and share of the AFC South title. Coupled with a defense allowing only 22.6 weekly points, the Colts were in the top ten on both sides of the ball.

Apart from Rivers, the offensive makeover was shaped by rookies, surprise breakouts, and an unholy tight end amalgamation that would have finished as a top-tier option had it not been split in three. So despite having to reckon with Rivers’ retirement and a coaching staff exodus, the Colts remain well-positioned for continued success moving forward.

Let’s dig into the year that was!

Quarterbacks

*17 rushes for 19 yards (1.1 YPC) and 3 touchdowns

Philip Rivers (ADP = 222.17, QB28)

With Rivers announcing his retirement on January 20th and the ADP not yet tolling over to February, this will more than likely be the last time he graces the ranks of the mock drafted. And while playoff success eluded him much as it has the majority of his career, 2020 wasn’t a bad way to go out.

Rivers was never a perfect quarterback, with a gunslinger’s mentality that unfortunately failed to match his physical abilities as he aged. Nevertheless, he still put forward an efficient season, albeit one marked by a frustrating inability to get into the end zone (just 1.5 passing touchdowns per game). For those who believe in the QB Rating metric, it was actually Rivers’ second-best season from 2014 – 2020, as he managed to cut down on both turnovers and sacks.

Throughout his career Rivers existed just on the outside looking in on the truly elite fantasy quarterbacks, but more often than not could be counted on for 4,200-4,600 yards and 26-32 touchdowns. Not someone that you always felt confident in as your starter in a shallow 1QB league, but decidedly useful in superflex or 2QB formats. He would be a first-ballot lock in the fictitious “Hall of Very Good,” in both real life and fantasy, but will ultimately ride off into the sunset as a player who was always just a step or two away from reaching the promised land.

Jacoby Brissett (ADP = NR)

While not an abject failure as a season-long starter following Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement in 2019, Brissett was summarily replaced with Rivers, only seeing spot duty and occasionally functioning as a goal-line running back. To the latter point, his Jerome Bettis-esque rushing line of three touchdowns on a 1.1 YPC average served only to frustrate owners of Rivers and/or Jonathan Taylor.

Still only 28, he’s probably worth holding onto in deep superflex leagues, but otherwise shouldn’t be rostered as the Colts have already alluded to the likelihood of not re-signing him for 2021.

Jacob Eason (ADP = NR)

A 2020 fourth-round pick, Eason is notably solely due to the fact he’s currently the only player under contract at the position. If nothing else he has prototype size (6’6”, 230 pounds) and a decent collegiate pedigree, but I wouldn’t count on this tree bearing fruit.

Andrew Luck (ADP = NR)

He’s probably not coming back, but if he did he would immediately vault to the ranks of the dynasty QB1 tier. For that reason alone, he’s worth hanging onto in deep superflex leagues.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor (ADP = 3.67, RB3)

While I’ve only watched Inception once, I’m going to give it a go here. If this article is dream level three, then dream level two was the reference to this exact same trick I pulled in my Titans capsule for Derrick Henry, utilizing dream level one where “fortuitously for purposes of this article, I recently penned my Last Minute Gifts series, wherein I detailed one Mr. Henry.” Wake up, rinse, repeat, and I’ll let “Inception Eric” take it from here with my analogous thoughts on one Mr. Taylor:

“In the course of just five short games, Taylor has seemingly gone from ‘bust’ to ‘2020 league winner.’ During this time the only thing able to stop him was a close COVID contact, as opposing defenses didn’t put up much of a fight. To that point, over this period Taylor accrued 583 total yards and six total touchdowns, while running the ball at a crisp 5.5 YPC.

I’ve led with this information as I hope it finds you in a place to be proactive, as it wouldn’t surprise me if Taylor’s ADP starts to climb once the Colts close out their season.

All told Taylor’s early-season struggles and late-season surge remind me of a rookie Joe Mixon. For those who recall, Mixon gradually improved his stats in each subsequent quartet of games, looking like a genuine stud by the end of the year. In doing so he was highly efficient catching the ball, and began to slowly but surely relegate running mate Giovani Bernard to the bench.

Sound familiar?

Taylor started the year with a relative thud, running to the tune of a meager 3.8 YPC while only topping the century mark once in his first nine contests. From there he slowly took hold of the backfield, receiving at least 16 touches in his last five games, including three games with 20 or more. This was enough to raise his season-long YPC to a cool 4.5, while turning a three-headed monster of a backfield into more of a ‘starter’ (Taylor) and ‘change of pace RB’ (Nyheim Hines) paradigm.

Most notably, Taylor has been incredibly efficient in the receiving game, corralling 35 of his 37 targets at 8.5 YPR (with one receiving score). Hines remains as the preferred pass-catching option and fly in the ointment, but in just one NFL season Taylor has already nearly equaled the entirety of his collegiate reception output. Coupled with his three-down RB size and speed, additional improvement and utilization could see him function as a perennial high-end PPR RB1. I would take him fairly easily as the 2020 rookie RB1, and he has an argument to be valued as a top-five dynasty ball carrier.”

In yet another parallel to Henry, Taylor concluded the season with a similar week 17 explosion, going for 253 yards and two scores versus the hapless Jaguars, putting himself over 1,000 rushing yards on the year. In total Taylor accumulated nearly 1,500 total yards and 12 scores despite not really exerting control on the backfield until late November. In just one month he went from the RB12 by ADP all the way up to the RB3, and third player drafted overall. The brief window to buy has now been slammed shut, and those who took their shot are looking at rostering an RB1 for the next five-plus years.

Nyheim Hines (ADP = 119.83, RB39)

Interestingly with Hines, while he finished 2020 as a mid-range PPR RB2, it’s not as if he was demonstrably better than his rookie season. It’s true he was more efficient both through the air and on the ground, but he only sequestered four additional touches over his 2018 self, albeit for 120 more yards. An additional three scores helped, but it’s not as if this was some sort of breakout.

In reality, it was a bit of redemption following a drop-off sophomore season with Brissett under center, which likely helped color his season as more of a massive success. However, on a weekly basis you probably never felt overly confident starting him as his points tended to come in chunks, lacking consistency. To that point he only achieved double-digit carries twice, and was held to fewer than four receptions eight times.

Other potential landmines exist, including the departure of Rivers, who is well known for peppering his running backs and tight ends with targets, as well as the emergence of Taylor and his unexpected pass-catching chops. Still, Hines is only 24, and his price tag is that of a high-end RB4. I’d probably hold for that price, but would not be looking to buy. He just doesn’t have enough Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead/James White ability and usage in the passing game and more than likely won’t receive more carries than he did in 2020 moving forward.

Jordan Wilkins (ADP = 237.17, RB90)

That Wilkins is actually being selected in the January ADP only tells me one thing – that his immediate family apparently participates in DLF’s mock drafts! In seriousness, he’s a lightly-used former fifth-round pick who is still under contract for one more year and will be 27 before the start of the 2021 season, stuck behind one of the league’s best young ball carriers. And apart from one random explosion against league laughingstock Detroit, Wilkins rarely saw the field even when Taylor was struggling, and wasn’t terribly efficient with the work he received.

There may exist a scenario where the stars align and he receives the lion’s share of the backfield work (read: injuries, and the Colts not drafting or signing additional competition), but that’s not enough to pique my interest in a shallow league.

Marlon Mack (ADP = 168.50, RB57)

Mack is one of the more interesting cases in fantasy football. He had over 1,000 total yards for two straight seasons while displaying efficiency toting the rock, and scored the ball reasonably well. He will also only be 25 years old despite entering his fifth season in the league, and will have the ability to pick his spot as an impending unrestricted free agent.

On the other hand he tore his Achilles tendon, which is arguably one of the most devastating injuries to return from (despite recent success stories like Demaryius Thomas), and it will be challenging for him to land a contract without being able to prove his health. There also appear to be more than a few talented rookies entering the fold via the 2021 NFL Draft, further limiting options for a plum landing spot.

For the price, I’d still likely be a buyer, even if 2021 results in a sunk cost. Mack is a talented player who has shown ability at the NFL level, and was easily out ahead of Taylor through training camp. I wouldn’t buy expecting immediate viability, but Mack could make some noise down the line.

Wide Receiver

TY Hilton (ADP = 153.33, WR68)

Whether it was having to deal with a third different starting quarterback for the third straight year, a seeming preponderance of ill-timed drops, or simply Father Time catching up to a smallish, speed-based receiver, 2020 wasn’t the bounce-back Hilton owners were looking for. He started slowly out of the gates, with fewer than 70 yards in any game and zero touchdowns through the Colts’ first nine contests. During this time he was also only able to sequester five or fewer targets six times.

However, things ticked up a bit during the final six games of the season (Hilton missed one contest). This stretch resulted in at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown five times, with only one effort below 10.0 PPR points. His average of 16.8 PPR points per game would’ve seen him finish as a mid-range WR1 if he could’ve kept it up over a full season.

So, which is the real Hilton?

My best guess is that it’s somewhere in between, but unfortunately the fact he’ll be dealing with quarterback #4 in four years could lead to another lost season for the Colts veteran. At 31 years old, potentially below-average play under center isn’t something Hilton can afford, though as an unrestricted free agent he will at least have his say in it. Regardless, this potentiality is clearly baked into his price tag as a dynasty WR6.

As the WR68, I’m probably a buyer in all formats, and might try to swing a trade in exchange for a third-round pick. Studies have been performed (many detailed on this very website!) that rookie drafts hit crapshoot territory early on, but in the heat of the draft you may be able to find a willing trade partner with Rookie Fever. The preference would be if you are trying to supplement a veteran team, but even a rebuilding squad looking to flip him for a profit mid-season should be interested.

Zach Pascal (ADP = 229.00, WR100)

Following a bit of a breakout 2019, Pascal picked up where he left off and… did literally the exact same thing in 2020. Like, eerily so. To wit:

• 2019: 41-607-5 (72 targets)
• 2020: 44-629-5 (71 targets)

Apologies to the math majors out there, but I’ll save you the time. On one fewer target, he had all of three more receptions for a whopping 22 more yards, with the same number of scores. Cue the “Spidermen pointing” meme…

Unfortunately, this type of output essentially renders Pascal as a roster clogger. He only put forward one weekly PPR WR1 performance versus the Texans in week 15, while only managing 44 or fewer yards 10 times. If you feel confident nailing bullseyes with a blindfold on then Pascal is your guy, but otherwise you were getting bench-level output the majority of the time.

Year-end counting stats are great, but compiling to the level of a WR5 just isn’t helping anyone. There’s some intrigue in that Hilton may be skipping town, but former second-round pick Parris Campbell should be back healthy in 2021. I’d likely only be holding in deep leagues.

Michael Pittman (ADP = 79.33, WR40)

If not for Taylor, Pittman would be the Colts’ most valuable player according to the ADP. And while he didn’t have nearly the gaudy numbers as his fellow rookie teammate, Pittman definitely showed flashes befitting of an early second-round pick. He was able to do so despite missing three games with a scary bout with compartment syndrome (not great – think Hakeem Nicks).

Despite the missed time and the overall impressiveness of the class, Pittman finished sixth amongst rookies in receiving yardage, and had a solid 90-yard day in his lone playoff game. He performed this feat even with the Colts functioning as a below-average team in terms of passing attempts. In short, though the final marks weren’t fantasy relevant, the foundation was being solidly built.

Pittman also offers something none of the other Colts do – size, and plenty of it! Standing at 6’4” and 223 pounds, Pittman is a load to bring down and should have the advantage in contested catch situations. He’s also well-positioned to be the Colts target lead, having narrowly eclipsed Pascal in targets per game and with Hilton potentially on the move. Though wide receiver tends to dominate the middle rounds and they’re packed in the ADP like sardines, Pittman appears as a screaming buy at the price of a dynasty WR4.

Parris Campbell (ADP = 118.83, WR58)

With just nine games played through two seasons, there is truly precious little to say about the former second-round pick. He still possesses blazing speed and strong open-field ability. To that latter point, a whopping 130 of his 198 career receiving yards came after the catch. But to the initial point – he only has 198 receiving yards through two years!

I don’t want to punish the guy for getting hurt, but the fact is these types of inauspicious starts do not historically turn out well. I recognize his injuries have been unrelated, and every situation is a unique snowflake, but trends are trends and the onus is on Campbell to reverse his. If nothing else though, he at least came out of the gates strong in his lone full 2020 contest, where he accrued all of his six receptions and 71 receiving yards.

You may have heard this before, but teammate Hilton may be leaving town for 2021. It seems likely that Pittman’s strong rookie season will make him the Batman of the receiving corps, but every caped crusader needs his Robin. As a low-end WR5, Campbell seems like the type of guy you’d like to get as a “throw-in” to a larger trade, and hope that he eventually matches his draft status. If I’m an owner, I’d be holding.

Tight End

*2 rushing touchdowns

Even removing Burton’s erstwhile rushing prowess, the aggregate of the Colts’ tight end fantasy points would have finished as the overall PPR TE3. I’m not sure who to be mad at for this, but rest assured I am furious that all we got was two PPR TE2s and a PPR TE3!

Trey Burton (ADP = 238.17, TE39)

Decidedly the least efficient option of the Colts’ trio, Burton buoyed his final ranking on the back of the afore-mentioned pair of rushing touchdowns. When not managing to run for a yard or two across the goal line, he could only muster a 59.6% catch percentage despite underwhelming with a lowly 8.9 YPR. He only finished with one game over 50 yards, again helping his bottom line with three receiving scores.

Already relegated to a near league-minimum contract after bombing on his big-money deal with the Bears, Burton did little to provide a market for his services as a 2021 free agent. Only eclipsing 500 yards once in a single season, he probably isn’t worth rostering.

Mo Alie-Cox (ADP = 237.83, TE38)

Checking in just one spot ahead of Burton is Alie-Cox, who put together a fairly efficient season despite not receiving much in the way of volume. Though he scored the fewest touchdowns of the trio, he had both the best catch percentage and YPR, functioning as the relative big-play option in the tight end corps. Unfortunately, despite having a few big games early on (a 100-yard effort in week two, and touchdowns in weeks three and four), Alie-Cox was an afterthought down the stretch, with just 21 targets over his final eight games. With the Colts splitting targets fairly evenly across the tight end options, he couldn’t rise above the fray.

Alie-Cox is a restricted free agent entering 2021, so it will be up to the Colts if they’d like to see him return. Only 27 and (you may have heard this once or twice) with a basketball player’s pedigree and athleticism, there’s a modicum of intrigue here. I’d likely roster simply because big men with movement skills are hard to come by, and the tight end position is an endless wasteland of mid-range players unable to transcend into the upper echelon – so why not take the chance on the guy who’s still learning the game and can out-athlete the opposition?

Jack Doyle (ADP = NR)

The oldest and least athletic (read: most “dad-running”) tight end of the group, it’s not terribly surprising Doyle is nowhere to be found in the ADP. Naturally, that makes him the one I’d be looking to buy the most. It’s true he had a down 2020, but of this grouping he’s the only one who has shown at least shred of fantasy prowess, with two seasons of 59+ receptions and 584+ yards.

Of the three tight ends chronicled here, Doyle is the only one under contract for 2021, and also the only one making a reasonable chunk of change (he signed a three-year, $21 contract prior to the season). While he didn’t get the run most expected in 2020, he could be one of the primary beneficiaries of a revamped offense. Of course, the Colts could also cut him with only $1.5 million of dead cap, so it isn’t safe to assume there’s any sort of lock here.

I certainly wouldn’t want Doyle as my starter, but there’s enough here to believe he didn’t fall off a cliff in 2020. For the price of free, I view him as a solid end-of-bench stash.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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