88 Lines About 44 Players
Sometimes writing inspirations come out of nowhere and they don’t always make it to the page. The song 88 Songs About 44 Women by The Nails came up on a playlist and I immediately had the thought of turning it into an article about the top 44 players by ADP in January’s one-quarterback startup mock drafts. For some reason, DLF said yes, so without further ado…
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
He is the single most valuable asset in one quarterback leagues until proven otherwise. 2020 injuries shouldn’t have long-term effects, so it’s all systems go for 2021.
2. Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Kamara feels safe and secure despite the uncertainty at quarterback. His contract essentially guarantees he is with Sean Payton until at least 2023.
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
I’d have him more in the six to seven range, but a top-five overall ADP in one-quarterback leagues was always his destiny if he showed any upside at all. Despite the slow start, Taylor finished 2020 as the top-scoring rookie RB, the RB6 overall, and the RB8 in points per game among running backs with at least 12 games played.
4. Saquon Barkley, RB NYG
He’s still behind only McCaffrey for me but I get it. He’s now missed 35% of regular-season games since entering the league.
5. DK Metcalf, WR SEA
Metcalf has the most athletic upside of any NFL wide receiver, but slowed down after week 12. He was WR21 over the last five weeks; averaging five catches, 52.8 yards per game, and catching just one touchdown over that span.
6. Davante Adams, WR GB
Despite the perception that he’s “old”, it’s hard to not still have him as the dynasty WR1. On average, he scored 8.6 points per game more than Metcalf.
7. Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
He is undeniably elite but I’m still placing Cook in the ticking time bomb bucket. I’m selling every remaining share and if it bites me for one more season, so be it.
8. D’Andre Swift, RB DET
He was impressive on limited opportunities. Matt Patricia is gone but are we really trusting Detroit with the trade rumors swirling around Matthew Stafford?
9. Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
After a record-setting rookie season and a WR3 overall ADP, it’s certainly worth exploring selling high. I wouldn’t though.
10. AJ Brown, WR TEN
He had more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns than in his rookie season but this is still a very run-heavy team (second to only the Ravens in 2020). I wonder how long we have to wait before we see a top 10 -15 target season.
11. Tyreek Hill, WR KC
Being attached to Patrick Mahomes for at least two years through his age-28 season is worth a lot. He’s in the middle of his prime production years so if you’re a contender he is very attractive for next season, but potentially a sell after that if you’re looking to maximize your return.
12. Derrick Henry, RB TEN
I totally understand why Henry has made it into the first round of startup drafts but this is a pick that declines in value the moment it’s made. You’ll probably get one-two more RB1 seasons, but the trade market isn’t there for him right now, and it certainly won’t be a year from now.
13. JK Dobbins, RB BAL
I’m as big a fan of Dobbins as anyone but this feels aggressive. I’d take him before Henry though.
14. Nick Chubb, RB CLE
The only reason he isn’t a first-round startup pick is the idea that Kareem Hunt caps his ceiling. It certainly does but it didn’t keep him from being an RB1 despite missing four games.
15. Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
The Josh Allen experiment is a smashing success and Diggs is the clear alpha in that offense. Why things should be any different in 2021?
16. CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
I think the Cowboys do everything they can to keep Dak Prescott and give this offense a chance to be what it was before their star quarterback went down. Lamb will likely need to wait for Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup to move on before reaching his true ceiling, but he is ready to ascend into the first round right now.
17. Calvin Ridley, WR ATL
In late December there were rumors Matt Ryan and Julio Jones could be traded. Ridley should feel safe, but if a Ryan trade does happen, it’s hard to imagine Ridley being in a better situation in 2021.
18. Josh Jacobs, RB LV
He had 30 more carries than in his rookie season but 85 fewer yards on the ground. He had two fewer yards than Nick Chubb had despite playing three more games.
19. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
I still want to buy the Patrick Mahomes connection, but the upside doesn’t feel as enticing as it once did. Do they bring back Damien Williams or add someone in free agency?
20. Miles Sanders, RB PHI
I’d rather have him than Edwards-Helaire, Jacobs, Henry, and Swift. Philadelphia was a mess in 2020 and it has made Sanders a steal in the mid-late second round of startups.
21. DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARI
He’s still in a great situation and one of only three receivers to average double-digit targets per game in 2020, but his tumble over the age-related value cliff has begun. Unless you are in a full two-three year rebuild, Hopkins probably has to be a “ride into the sunset” guy on your team at this point, as the return you’ll get will never again match his production.
22. Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
Once Prescott went down, Elliot’s production cratered. I think he is one of the best buys you can make for 2021, but wait until rookie fever has captured the community.
23. Cam Akers, RB LAR
Akers came on strong down the stretch and into the playoffs. It seems like the team has started to commit to him and his value should rise to the early second round by the start of the 2021 season.
24. Aaron Jones, RB GB
If he is back in Green Bay, this is far too low. If he is elsewhere, this could very well be too high.
25. Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
He had upside for days. If the receiving production catches up to what he has already shown as a runner, look out.
26. Michael Thomas, WR NO
Will he be in New Orleans next season and if so, who will be his quarterback? Despite all the questions, he’s a value anywhere after the mid-second.
27. George Kittle, TE SF
The early third feels right for the first TE off the board, if not a little late. He gets the slight nod over Travis Kelce only because of the age discount.
28. Austin Ekeler, RB LAC
He averaged over five receptions a game for the second season in a row, finishing second at the running back position in each season. If his current usage continues under the new coaching staff then Ekeler will be a value pick in the third round.
29. Patrick Mahomes, QB KC
In one-quarterback leagues, the third round feels too early for the first quarterback, but I certainly understand it. With elite producers still on the board, it’s a pick I wouldn’t make despite the warm fuzzy feelings you get from never worrying about the position again.
30. James Robinson, RB JAC
He was the story of the season at running back. Assuming rational decision-making, Robinson should be the lead back again in 2021, but will struggle to duplicate his 98% running back rush share.
31. Travis Kelce, TE KC
Kelce was the TE1 overall for the fifth straight season, and he saved the best for 2020 with career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. 31 isn’t that old for a tight end either, so if you prefer to keep him as the first off the board, don’t feel obligated to pivot to Kittle.
32. Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
The dynasty community has finally caught up to the idea of McLaurin as a low-end WR1 in ADP and he’s a solid pick in the late third round. He is a little older than you might think though (25) and the quarterback situation is a complete unknown at this point.
33. Chris Godwin, WR TB
His ADP has fallen nearly two full rounds from January 2020 to January 2021. Godwin is an unrestricted free agent so there’s a chance the Bucs won’t want to pay him and he ends up playing elsewhere next season.
34. DJ Moore, WR CAR
Moore’s fall from one year ago wasn’t quite as far as Godwin’s, but disappointing nonetheless. Moore’s yardage went up slightly on 21 fewer receptions but his catch percentage fell by nearly 10%.
35. Joe Mixon, RB CIN
We must be in the 2020 disappointments section of the draft because Mixon has taken a spill from the late first to the third round over the past year. He feels like an extreme value at this point in the draft and is being heavily discounted due to an injury-plagued season where he saw action in just six games.
36. David Montgomery, RB CHI
He found his mojo against weak competition over the final six games of the season but was thoroughly disappointing against the Saints in the playoffs. Tarik Cohen will return to take the receiving work and to me, that alone is enough of a reason to sell high if you can find a suitor.
37. Tee Higgins, WR CIN
He fell off a bit when Joe Burrow went down, but that’s understandable. He’s already overtaken Tyler Boyd as the WR1 in Cincinnati.
38. Mike Evans, WR TB
Of the top three receivers in Tampa Bay, he’s the only one guaranteed to return with Brady in 2021. Evans was frustrating week to week in fantasy but did squeak out his sixth-straight 1,000-yard season and hit a career-high in touchdowns despite a career-low number of targets.
39. Amari Cooper, WR DAL
He’s unlikely to ever become that top-five receiver we thought he might, but despite only five games with Prescott, still finished 11th in the NFL in targets and 11th in receptions. Unless traded, Cooper will be back with the team in 2021 and let’s all hope that his quarterback is too.
40. Allen Robinson, WR CHI
Free Allen Robinson. I would love to see him play with a good quarterback, but why wouldn’t Chicago just franchise him?
41. Darren Waller, TE LV
He’s not my TE3, but he belongs in the discussion after proving his breakout 2019 season wasn’t a fluke. He is a difference-maker at a position without many of them.
42. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
He rebounded nicely after a lackluster start to the 2020 season. Many think the Steelers won’t pay to bring him back and that fact alone makes him one of my favorite buy targets this off-season.
43. Keenan Allen, WR LAC
Even after his fourth straight season of at least 97 receptions, Allen continues to be undervalued by the dynasty community. You can’t get any real return for him in the trade market so just enjoy the production with a studly young quarterback.
44. Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
He was much better in his rookie season than I ever thought he would, but I think the hype has risen to the point where it’s worth trying to sell. George Kittle and Deebo Samuels will both be back and healthy in 2021, something that wasn’t true during Aiyuk’s break out.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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