Twitter Observations: Marcus Mariota’s Return, Time to Sell Derrick Henry?
While a lucky few dynasty teams are competing for championships this weekend and next, the majority have seen their season end. And with that, the clock has started on evaluating the current roster for changes whether its players are coming or going. Below are a few tweets that discuss some of those very players who could, or should, be on the move.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications
Return of the Matt
Highest-graded QBs in Week 14 prior to MNF:
1. Ryan Tannehill – 91.3
2. Matthew Stafford – 89.6
3. Derek Carr – 84.0
4. Aaron Rodgers – 82.9 pic.twitter.com/T5H5SomqE8— PFF (@PFF) December 14, 2020
While Matthew Stafford may not have led the Lions to playoff success during his career, he certainly has for dynasty owners. Over the last decade, Stafford has thrown for at least 3,500 yards (save for last year when he missed half the season) and at least 20 touchdowns, too (he was at 19 through eight games last year). He may not notch 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns again like he did in his epic 2011 season but he’s been as consistent as they come and shows no signs of slowing down as evidenced by the tweet above.
Dynasty Impact: For all that production, Stafford’s dynasty value has done nothing but gradually decline from a low-end QB1 to a mid-range QB2.
Even when it comes to our own DLF rankers, they have Stafford ranked behind quarterbacks who have yet to have a QB1 fantasy season (looking at you Daniel Jones). Using our Trade Analyzer, Stafford would cost very little in 1QB leagues and would make a perfect, cheap option if you’re in need of a quarterback next season.
For superflex, he’s costing a mid-first round rookie pick. If you’re really lacking in that department, I would pay it for Stafford and be much more comfortable doing so over similarly ranked quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, or the older Matt Ryan. Stafford is not a sexy choice but he’s a good one.
All Hail the King
Derrick Henry now has 4 career games with 200 rushing yards & 2 rushing touchdowns, which breaks a tie with Hall of Famers Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and LaDainian Tomlinson for the most in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/2mibUGv19d
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 13, 2020
Derrick Henry is really good. You don’t need to be a fantasy analyst to know that. After a gradual ramp-up in snaps over his first three seasons, Henry busted out in 2019 with 303 carries for 1,540 yards and an incredible 16 touchdowns while winning several fantasy championships for his dynasty managers. However, some (including yours truly who did win a championship with Henry) never thought he could do it again and decided to trade him for what they (we) thought was peak value.
After all, not many 26-year old running backs get better nor are able to produce much more than Henry did in 2019. Boy, were they (we) wrong. Henry not only has just as many yards (1,532 – 1,540) and almost as many touchdowns (14-16) as he did all of last season but he still has three games left!
Dynasty Impact: So while we celebrate Henry getting better and winning more fantasy championships for his managers, dynasty players will again have to decide if they wish to hold on to Henry this off-season. And when you look at the kind of return Henry could get you, you can understand why it’s a tough decision.
Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Henry is currently valued at least two mid-first round rookie picks (or one really high first-round rookie pick) which, if he won you one (or two) dynasty championships, would be a hard thing to decline. Henry, after all, will be entering his age-27 season in 2021 and coming off two straight 300-plus carry seasons. It’s that or, assuming you played your cards right, a rookie running back coming in fresh and with the potential to give you more seasons of RB1 production. If I’ve already won with Henry, I’d be looking to win with someone else soon.
Heart of Marcus
Marcus Mariota should have one of the 32 starting QB jobs in the world
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) December 18, 2020
Welcome back Marcus Mariota. After being replaced by Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee and signing with Las Vegas in the off-season, Mariota hadn’t been heard from until Thursday’s game against the Chargers. When Derek Carr suffered a groin injury, untouched, Mariota came in and looked like he’d been starting all season.
He had 226 yards and a touchdown in the air (he did have a pick on a batted ball) and added 88 yards on the ground and another touchdown. Carr’s injury has already ruled him out for week 15 so Mariota suddenly becomes a top-waiver option if needed.
Dynasty Impact: Even if Mariota didn’t play another game this season, his value surely would see an uptick from where it’s bottomed out this season.
He’s only on a one-year contract with the Raiders where he’ll either A) stay and become the next starter or B) leave to start somewhere else as the tweet suggests above. With time and, hopefully, a better coaching staff than what he was used to, Mariota can be fantasy relevant again. It’s probably not worth it to seek him out in 1QB leagues but he would be a great value in superflex. His current worth, according to the Trade Analyzer, is between a third and fourth-round pick. For a quarterback who has a good chance of starting next year, that’s a bargain.
Scary Terry
Terry McLaurin receiving:
⭐ 108 targets
⭐ 2 drops pic.twitter.com/gchuHZxjJZ— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 19, 2020
While it’s impressive that Terry McLaurin has topped 900 yards in each of his last two seasons, what’s more impressive is he’s done it with no less than five different quarterbacks. Between Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Kyle Allen, McLaurin has been a model of consistency no matter who is throwing him the ball. He’s done it by catching everything thrown his way as evidenced by the Tweet above.
Dynasty Impact: Of course, the 25-year old McLaurin has had five different quarterbacks because Washington isn’t a very good football team. They had the second-worst record in the league last season and are under .500 this season. And while Alex Smith seems to have been the most steady of them all when leading the offense, it’s not a given he’s the long-term solution which means he could be on to quarterbacks six and seven soon.
Currently, McLaurin is ranked as a top-ten receiver but I just can’t see it especially when you consider the uncertainty at quarterback and McLaurin’s fairly advanced age for a player just finishing his second season. If you can get a high first-round pick out of him, as our Trade Analyzer shows, I would do it.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.04 - April 20, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Stefon Diggs Moves on - April 14, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: What Next for Brandon Aiyuk? - March 31, 2024
