The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the DLF mailbag; the article series that answers *your* questions in long-form. It can be difficult to give a detailed response to your questions on twitter so this series is designed to do just that. Each week we’ll do a deep-dive on the questions you have been rolling around in your dynasty mind. If you have something you’d like discussed in this format, please send me a message on twitter @MattPriceFF and include #AskDLF in your tweet. Let’s get into it!
@NickMartinezBR asks…
If you had to choose a player at each position to have the largest leap in ADP from 2020-2021, who would they be?
At quarterback, I think you have to go all the way down to the mid-30s to find the guy. Jameis Winston is QB35 in June single-quarterback ADP largely because he isn’t going to be starting any games in 2020 unless something happens to Drew Brees. Winston signed an extremely team-friendly deal with New Orleans for the right to sit and learn from Brees and Sean Payton. I find it highly unlikely that Winston isn’t a starter somewhere in 2021 and it’s possible it’s right there in the Big Easy. With a starter role in 2021, I think Winston can land somewhere in the mid-high teens at the position by this time next season.
Honorable mention: Cam Newton.
READ: New England Cam Chatter: The Dynasty Fallout of Cam Newton signing with the Patriots
I’m going to cheat a little at the running back position and say it’s one of Washington’s backs. Washington has long been on my list of franchises to completely avoid, but with Ron Rivera in town to clean things up and some exciting skill players joining the roster, I’m slowly coming around on this being a legitimate NFL team. If Derrius Guice can somehow put together a 16-game season then he is the likely answer. Currently the RB29, Guice missed his entire rookie season and 11 more games in 2019, but when he has been on the field we’ve seen glimpses of the player we thought we were getting with our 1.02 rookie pick in 2018. With a healthy season, there is quite a bit of room for a value spike from Guice and we could see him jump 10-15 spots this time next season if he can put it together.
If injuries continue to plague Guice, then Antonio Gibson at RB41 is extremely interesting. With just 77 career touches at Memphis, it’s hard to say what kind of player Gibson can be with a larger workload against tougher competition, but what we have seen is extremely promising. He played wide receiver at Memphis, but Washington drafted him as a running back, and nearly half his touches in his final collegiate season were carries out of the backfield. His receiving ability from the running back position and his size (6’0, 228 lbs) has drawn comparisons to David Johnson. He can also fly down the field. Gibson certainly showed that at the NFL Combine, where he ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. His unique size-speed combination and third-round NFL draft capital are good signs for his production if he gets enough opportunity.
At wide receiver, I think it’s Mecole Hardman. I expect him to emerge as the WR2 in the best offense in football. His June ADP of WR45 seems like a huge value and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top 20 at his position this time next year. If Sammy Watkins was going to be a consistent force in this offense, he would have done it by now, so if you are concerned about him blocking Hardman in 2020, don’t be.
I might be falling into a trap with Jace Sternberger as my choice at tight end. Here is a list of finishes for the Packers top tight end over the last five seasons in reverse order: TE22 (Graham), TE12 (Graham), TE25 (Lewis), TE36 (Rodgers), TE11 (Rodgers). Two backend TE1 finishes out of five isn’t exactly exciting production from the position in Green Bay. Despite that, I do think there is some upside with Sternberger. The Packers have done absolutely nothing to help out Aaron Rodgers so far this off-season and no, Devin Funchess does not count. If Sternberger can live up to his potential, he has a chance to be the second option in the passing game behind only Davante Adams. If that happens then Sternberger seems like a candidate to be another low-end TE1 from the Packers. That kind of finish could easily bump him up seven-ten spots in positional ADP this time next season.
@HeySheckie asks…
Who is hot right now but might be untouchably hot in six months because he blew up?
This question is on the same spectrum of Nick’s, but it’s different enough that we can talk about it separately. There are several great options, but for me, it’s Miles Sanders. He is coming off the board as RB8 overall as a fringe first-round pick in June startup ADP. It might sound rich but he is still going slightly behind Nick Chubb as of this writing. I think it’s pretty easy to make a case for Sanders over Chubb right now and even easier to make it six months from now.
Chubb is playing alongside a former RB1 in Kareem Hunt. Once Hunt returned from suspension in week nine, he completely dominated Chubb in the receiving game. From weeks 10-17, Hunt led Chubb in targets (44-17) and receptions (37-11). There will be a new offensive system in place from Kevin Stefanski that may prefer a one-back system, but it seems like it will be hard to keep Hunt off the field completely.
Sanders, on the other hand, dodged competition in both free agency and the NFL Draft. He should dominate both carries and targets for the Eagles in 2020. There is some concern that Boston Scott could eat into Sanders’ workload, especially in the receiving game. Once Scott became part of the gameplan in week 14, he led Sanders in both targets (25-22) and receptions (23-18), but I think they can coexist. Even if you optimistically extrapolated their totals from the final four-game stretch over a 16 game season, Sanders would have 72 receptions, which is more than enough to make him nearly untouchable in 2021. Sanders convincingly demonstrated an ability to be split out wide and haul in downfield receptions. He is more than just a dump-off option in the passing game and should be given ample opportunities to be an elite asset in PPR leagues. I don’t think there is any risk of Sanders being given the Josh Jacobs treatment and have most of his receiving work stolen by Boston Scott.
That will do it for this edition of the mailbag! Send in your questions to @MattPriceFF for next week’s piece and include #AskDLF in your tweet.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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