2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Jordan Love, QB Utah State

NP Merrill

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Jordan Love, QB from Utah State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

“Boom or bust” and “high-risk, high-reward” are the most common characterizations of former Aggies starter Jordan Love.

No one denies his physical talent. He’s got a strong arm and the stature of a future NFL star, but he’s prone to make far too many mistakes. Will he overcome his bad habits, or can they be coached out of him? Can he learn to make better decisions under pressure?

Let’s take a look at where we should be slotting Love as the NFL Draft is about to commence.

The Stats

screen shot 2020 04 23 at 08.14.04

Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com.

Love’s college career took off as the full-time starter in 2018 after he started six games as a freshman the year prior.

In his sophomore outing, he looked the part with an 8.6 yards-per-attempt average on 267 completions for 3,567 yards. He threw for 32 touchdowns and only six interceptions, one of the best ratios among college players that year.

Unfortunately, he couldn’t follow up that impressive line in 2019. Last season he threw for an FBS-high 17 interceptions, demonstrating poor decision-making in several games, resulting in a major hit to his draft stock as he moves up to the NFL. In fact, 2019’s numbers are the biggest knock against Love’s potential as a prospect. As a result, pro teams are likely to consider him a project.

The Film

Click play to see why Love has been compared to Patrick Mahomes – not in the sense that he is as good as the Chiefs star, but insofar as he has demonstrated similar intangibles and style of play.

Highlight films are fun to watch, but we need to know why Love threw so many interceptions in 2019. Much of the blame for last year’s statistical regression must be placed squarely on Love’s own shoulders, with his propensity to lock on to his first read, telegraph his throws to defensive backs and wind up on his throws – a mechanics issue that contributed to several of those picks.

It’s fair to note, however, that he had less-than-stellar talent surrounding him last season, and that a coaching turnover along with the new staff’s introduction of an entirely new offense did not help Love’s production.

He’s better at throwing deep with accuracy, ensuring the ball arrives where only his receiver can make the catch. As the film below (versus San Jose State in 2018) reveals at 00:48 seconds, he has much room for improvement throwing the slant.

His arm strength is unquestioned and he has the raw ability to make all the throws he’ll be asked to as a pro.


The Measurables

At 6’4” and 224 lbs. Love possesses the large, athletic frame that NFL teams look for in starter material. With 10.5” hands (95th percentile), he has no problem gripping and flipping the ball, and has demonstrated sufficient or better dexterity and speed both in the pocket and scrambling outside of it.

Dynasty Value

Many analysts have mocked Love to the Saints with the 24th pick in the first round. If that prediction comes to fruition – or if another team with an entrenched 2020 starter drafts him to sit for a year – dynasty players will have to wait until at least 2021 to see what he brings to the NFL field.

According to DLF’s Dynasty Rookie Rankings, Love is ranked as the 36th rookie overall. He’s currently slotted as the QB4 just behind Justin Herbert and ahead of Jalen Hurts.

His current dynasty startup ADP is 212.67, increasing to 135.75 in superflex leagues, but he’s being valued as the QB5 through April 2020 with Hurts leapfrogging him in ten DLF superflex mock drafts.

He’s a late ninth-round pick in the new DLF Champion Series ADP where he is being taken as the 27th quarterback in those startup drafts. His NFL prospect grade of 6.36 indicates he’s a likely starter within two years.

We can expect Love to be drafted in the late first or sometime in the second round of the NFL Draft. In superflex leagues, dynasty team owners will take a chance on his upside by drafting him in the late first or early second round of rookie drafts (higher in leagues with 14 or more teams), but in 1QB leagues, he’s typically available well into the third round.