2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Michael Pittman, WR USC
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Michael Pittman, WR from USC. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
Everyone wants a stud running back on their dynasty team, but wide receivers own the market. If your team is deep at WR, then you are open to taking more shots at other positions. Hitting on rookie receivers helps immensely. Your dynasty team will instantly see a boost if you can get a WR2 or better from one of your draft selections.
Michael Pittman could potentially be one of the wide receivers from this year’s draft class who instantly improves your dynasty team. He does a lot of great things on the football field. As of right now, we don’t know what is in store for his future, but we do know he’s going to be a noteworthy addition to a lot of dynasty teams this rookie draft season.
THE STATS
Courtesy of sports-reference.com
After playing in all 13 games during his freshman season, Pittman could only reel in six passes for 82 yards. He contributed on special teams, returning two punts for 63 yards and returning four kicks for 31 yards. On top of that, he was able to block a punt and force a fumble.
A left ankle injury that he endured during fall camp prevented him from suiting up during the first three games of the 2017 season. He appeared in 11 games but wasn’t very effective until the back half of the year. His best game of the season came during the PAC-12 Championship Game where he recorded seven catches for 146 yards and one touchdown. This was the only game he had that season where he exceeded the 100-yard mark, and the only time he had more than four receptions in a game.
Pittman played in 11 games in 2018 as a junior. He missed one full game due to a shoulder injury he suffered the week prior against Oregon State. He managed to carve out a bigger role in the offense this year with three 100-yard games. Against Colorado, he caught six passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Even though he missed some time with an injury, he still managed to lead the team with 758 receiving yards. He owned a 25.36 percent share of the team’s passing production and a 29.35 percent dominator rating. Keep in mind, he also had to deal with some suspect quarterback play. JT Daniels finished the season completing 59.5 percent of his passes with just 6.9 adjusted passing yards per attempt.
After post-season shoulder surgery, Pittman looked primed and ready to explode for his senior season. Returning to school for his senior season seemed like a good decision since he had the best season of his career, ranking tenth in the nation with 1,275 receiving yards. In week four against Utah, he managed to catch ten passes for 232 yards and one touchdown. He blew up down the stretch, exceeding the 100-yard mark in three of the last four games of the season. It was nice to see him play a full season without being derailed by any substantial injuries. He was highly efficient and per Pro Football Focus, he averaged 2.32 yards per route run.
Courtesy of DLF’s College Market Share App.
From a production standpoint, Pittman’s career came in like a lamb and left like a lion. Injuries killed his sophomore campaign, leaving him with just a 9.65 percent share of the team’s passing production. We can give him a pass on his freshman season since JuJu Smith-Schuster and Deontay Burnett owned 42.75 percent share of the team’s offensive production. His junior season was palatable but we didn’t get desirable results until his age-22 season. He will turn 23 in October, making him an older rookie.
We can use injuries as the context for why he doesn’t have an early breakout age. However, to counterpoint that argument, he needed to be more dominant during his junior and senior seasons for him to be considered a blue-chip prospect coming out of college. His production isn’t bad, it just doesn’t mark a player who is poised to being a top flight-wide receiver at the next level.
THE FILM
The game above is his 2019 contest against Utah where he blew up for 232 yards and one touchdown. This was easily the most dominant performance of his career. The one thing you want to note from this game is his assertiveness at the catch point and how aggressive he can be when breaking off his routes.
When it comes to his release, Pittman does what you would expect him to do for a player of his size. He’s a honey badger who wants to get physical and move defenders around when facing press coverage. Has an excellent jab step to stack the defender before generating his next move.
As of right now, he’s not a diverse route runner, but he does a good job of snapping off his routes. He’s assertive when it comes to getting in and out of his breaks. His urgency allows him to create separation at the top of the route.
Michael Pittman going up for the football and getting the YAC for the score. pic.twitter.com/ozOYBkbWk8
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) January 4, 2020
Pittman might have the strongest hands in this year’s draft class. He can easily pluck the ball out of the air. His large catch-radius makes him an easy target. Ball skills are a major strength for Pittman. He does a good job of reading the flight pattern of the ball while it’s in the air while using his size, combined with body control, to block out the defender to get into position to make the grab. He’s good at converting catches and drops are definitely not an issue with him.
He’s not very flashy after the catch since he doesn’t possess elite-level speed. He’s fast enough to get downfield but his lack of change of direction skills stacked with his limited speed doesn’t make him the most elusive wide receiver after the catch. He needs to build up to get to full speed and after that, he still needs some space to have a chance to pull away from the entire defense. Faster defensive backs with good pursuit angles will catch him from behind.
Overall, he’s a solid possession receiver with elite-level ball skills. His my-ball mentality at the catch point can make him a difference-maker against smaller less aggressive defenders. His highlight reel from his senior season is fun to watch.
THE MEASURABLES
Pittman measured in at the Scouting Combine at 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. He ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash which equated to a 110.48 size-adjusted speed score which ranks in the 92nd percentile among all wide receiver prospects. He posted just average burst with a 36.5-inch vertical and a 121-inch broad jump. On the contrary, his 6.96 three-cone is solid when you adjust it for his size.
His comparable list isn’t very appealing. Corey Davis is the most noticeable player. Davis didn’t compete at the Combine so we don’t have a standardized measurement of his speed, burst, and short-area quickness.
Using my personal database, Pittman athletically compares to Josh Gordon. They are very similar in size, speed, short-area quickness and burst. Gordon is a little bit quicker with a 6.77 three-cone, but Pittman is an inch taller.
DYNASTY VALUE
In startup drafts, Pittman is usually being selected around the 13th round with a 156 ADP. He’s typically drafted as the 70th wide receiver off the board which is in the same range as Sammy Watkins, Breshad Perriman, and Dede Westbrook.
He is being drafted in a weird stage of the draft where there are plenty of young wide receivers with upside to choose from while there are also a few veterans who could help your dynasty team in the short-term. I feel the market is pricing him appropriately. He shouldn’t be completely free because he’s an unknown entity at this point, however, he’s a young asset that will at least hold some value over the next couple of seasons.
In rookie drafts, he is being drafted as a late-second to early-third round selection with an ADP of 25.60. His price tag is going to be very dependent on where he gets selected in the actual NFL Draft. If he gets drafted in the top 100, then we could easily see his stock rise. I don’t expect him ever creep into the first round, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he rises up to the middle of the second round between now and the end of summer. I highly doubt his stock will fall lower than the early third round of rookie drafts unless he free falls in the draft.
CONCLUSION
Pittman is a very interesting wide receiver prospect. His tape from his senior season is very exciting, but the lack of production from the earlier stages of his career is a major red flag. He had to battle some obstacles during his freshman and sophomore seasons but finished his career strong.
Personally, I like Pittman. I’m not overzealous, but considering his market value right now, I think he’s a safe asset to get in rookie drafts in the latter portion of the second round. I think he’s going to be a second-day pick which will elevate his stock and make him a safer asset to invest in. A lot of people will be on the Pittman train once he receives the necessary draft capital to make him a sought after dynasty asset.
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