Abandon Ship: The Dynasty Impact of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay
It’s officially the end of an era in New England and in the NFL. Quarterback Tom Brady has agreed in principle to a new contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Details haven’t clearly emerged, but reports are indicating it’s a deal worth $30 million per season and likely a two-year contract. This is the biggest free agent quarterback signing (at least in name) since Peyton Manning left Indianapolis and signed with the Denver Broncos on a short-term deal years ago. The Bucs clearly hope this deal works out as well for them as it did for the Broncos as Manning helped Denver to a Super Bowl Championship. This deal has far reaching dynasty impact, so let’s dive in on the players affected by the move.
Tom Brady, QB TB
The Brady resume is like no others before it.
- Twenty seasons
- 74,751 passing yards
- 541 touchdowns
- 97.0 career passer rating
- Nine Super Bowl Appearances
- Six Super Bowl Titles
- One title of GOAT
In short, Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich have to be salivating.
Now, to the reality.
Tom Brady is going to be 43 years old in August. This is not the Tom Brady of 2007 who scored 390 fantasy points. Instead, this is the Brady who posted right around 264 fantasy points last year, good enough to earn him a ranking of QB12. In 2018, he was the QB13. Father Time is undefeated as well. I’ve tried to fight Father Time for years and I seem to be getting older, fatter and balder. He’s tough.
In New England, Brady was clearly upset by the consistent lack of weapons. In Tampa, that won’t be a problem with the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a whole host of others. Throw in two capable tight ends in OJ Howard and Cameron Brate and this is fun.
The $64,000 question is going to be just how Bruce Arians and Tom Brady can work together. Arians prefers a deep passing attack that takes a ton of risks, while Brady has evolved into a very calculated and efficient quarterback who takes advantage of what the defense gives him better than anyone in the history of the game.
In short, owners who are expecting this 2007 version of Brady just because he has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are likely going to be disappointed. The Bucs are going to be a better team with Brady, but they were already averaging 29 points per game without him. The idea that Godwin and Evans are going to be exponentially better in fantasy leagues is just a bit of a reach. I would expect Brady to be a low-end QB1, but also one who could always surprise with a magical season. The only thing that would really surprise me is to see Brady somehow make the same type of mistakes Jameis Winston did en route to 30 interceptions last season.
In the end, I would expect Brady’s ADP to finally rise a bit and he’ll be a very fun high ceiling and low floor acquisition this season for contending dynasty teams. I just wouldn’t overpay. This reeks of a move that will be better in reality than in fantasy.
Jameis Winston, QB TB
Uh oh.
The uber talented Winston is likely going to see his five-year run with Tampa Bay now come to an end. The former #1 pick in 2015, Winston will surely end his Tampa Bay career with 19,737 passing yards, 121 touchdowns and 88 interceptions. That tenure will also include a bizarre 2019 where Winston not only threw for 30 touchdowns, but tossed 30 interceptions as well, becoming the first player in NFL history to “achieve” that distinction. The challenge for Winston has never been talent – it’s been decision making, both on and off the field. We don’t need to chronicle every event that’s transpired, but let’s just say Winston never really reached his potential in Tampa Bay.
Now, the future is murky.
There are limited places for a player like Winston to end up after the Colts (Rivers), Panthers (Bridgewater), Saints (Brees), Bucs (Brady), Titans (Tannehill) and others have addressed the quarterback position already. There are a few teams still possibly looking for a starter, but prime teams like the Chargers seem lukewarm on the idea of bringing Winston in. At this point, he may need to hope a team like the Bears, Patriots, or Dolphins give him a call. Otherwise, Winston could be looking at a backup job after throwing for more than 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns last season. Unreal.
Regardless, Winston’s ADP and dynasty value are in serious flux at the moment and owners need to just hold on and hope for the best.
Jarrett Stidham, QB NE
Wouldn’t it be the total Bill Belichick move to turn Jarrett Stidham into the next elite quarterback just to stick it to any naysayers out there and prove it was the “system” and not the “player” who won all those titles? It’s entirely possible this is the direction the Patriots go and Stidham merits some consideration until that direction takes a detour in the next few days.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, WRs TB
I totally get it.
Owners of these two are really stoked tonight. However, when you look at the numbers, can Godwin (86/1,333/9) or Evans (67/1,157/8) really be that much better. If this was the 2007 Brady, I could likely be convinced of that. In 2020, I just can’t. I fully believe this elite pair can put up comparable numbers, but banking on them doing more is too much of a risk for me.
OJ Howard and Cameron Brate, TEs TB
This group looks like the best tight end crew Brady has had since the likes of Rob Gronkowski and the late Aaron Hernandez. I’m a little more excited if I own either of these two. Howard had an awful season, but Brady’s game really fits these two, especially in the red zone. I’d be very excited to own either of these tight ends, even if they cancel out a little bit of production from each other.
Justin Watson, WR TB
Who knows how the Bucs fill out their roster, but Watson is really intriguing at the moment. Tom Brady has made lesser talented players into fantasy superstars from the slot and Watson could have some nice value moving forward. I’d clearly put him on my short list of sleepers at the moment, though Scotty Miller or a draft pick could be in the mix here as well. This is one position I would be monitoring very closely.
Julian Edelman, WR NE
We are about to see just what Edelman can do without the security of a close-knit relationship with his quarterback. I don’t expect the offense to change a ton, but anyone who owns Edelman should be at least mildly concerned at the moment.
Ronald Jones, RB TB
I’m watching this situation closely. Something tells me a player like Melvin Gordon is going to end up with the GOAT in Tampa. If not, RoJo could get a nice little uptick in value after an uneven season last year.
The AFC
He’s finally gone!
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
