We examine Jacksonville's defense. Will they return to 2017 form?
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Calais Campbell with only 29 solo tackles for the season would be about 20 less than his carrer average? But hey, maybe it happens?
Defensive production isn’t really determined by player production or ability Derek. It’s much more to do with scheme and the players and situation around him. Expecting players to simply produce similarly to previous seasons is the biggest mistake people commonly make in IDP.
I was low on Campbell last year on his tackle totals, but I have faith in the model. Because it generally works very well.
In fact I’m happy to share the results. Here’s my results on last year’s AFC South teams so you can check it for yourself: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2019/01/25/idp-projection-marking-afc-south/
It’s very possible Campbell does rack up tackles again, but simply expecting players to repeat their numbers is what makes people think IDP is impossible to predict. I’d much rather put my faith in a model that has overall proved stable and predictive over a period of years.