Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Dexter Williams, RB GB

Name: Dexter Williams

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Green Bay Packers

College Team: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draft Status: Round Six, 194th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 5’11 1’8”
• Weight: 212 pounds
• Arms: 32 1/4”
• Hands: 9 5/8”
• Wingspan: 76 7/8”
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.57
• 3-Cone Drill: 7.00
• 20-Yard Shuttle: 4.16
• Vertical Jump: 36.0”
• Broad Jump: 10’10” (130 inches)
• Bench Press: 17 reps

STRENGTHS

• Very good vision; above average mental processing and decisiveness
• Terrific footwork
• Good acceleration burst
• Good lateral agility and flexibility for his size
• No ball security concerns (two fumbles on 279 career touches)
• Little wear and tear due to extremely light workload
• Significant room for development based on the upside he showed once given opportunity
• Appears to have a natural feel for the position

WEAKNESSES

• Only one year of collegiate production
• Not particularly elusive
• Does not have good balance and is often tackled on first contact
• Injury history
• Off-field concerns (arrest, suspension)
• Not a natural receiver
• Willing pass blocker, but has poor pass protection technique

OPPORTUNITIES

Dexter Williams begins his career behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, so there is likely little opportunity for him to make a significant impact unless he beats one or both players out. Given his shortcomings in the passing game, it is unlikely he will earn his role in that area.

Because of this, he will have to beat out either Jones or Jamaal as the early-down back. Jamaal Williams is the definition of a replaceable talent, so it is quite feasible for Dexter to pass him early on. The new regime in Green Bay has no ties to Jamaal, and Dexter is much more of a big play threat. Jamaal Williams had 121 carries and 27 receptions totaling 674 yards and three touchdowns for the Packers in 2018, so that seems to be a best-case scenario for Dexter in 2019 unless he wins the job outright or Jamaal loses his roster spot.

THREATS

Aaron Jones is good, and should be the favorite for the majority of the touches in Green Bay’s backfield, both on the ground and through the air.

Jamaal Williams isn’t good, but he’s the best pass blocker of the three running backs on the roster, and we know the previous coaching staff valued that tremendously – even benching Jones for periods of time because of his lapses in this area.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

I believe Dexter Williams is significantly more talented than Jamaal Williams, and therefore believe he should win the number two role behind Jones this season. Because Jones struggles in pass protection, Jamaal could keep his roster spot and earn more snaps than his talent otherwise merits, but it’s difficult to project this situation without more information.

Dexter’s short-term upside is capped, barring a situation in which he wins the job outright or earns the majority of the goal-line work.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Dynasty players are infatuated with Aaron Jones, and for good reason – he’s good at football, and that’s typically something we should be chasing. However, Jones has a few red flags that could potentially open the door for Williams.

First, Jones was just a fifth-round pick, so he doesn’t have the draft capital attached to his name that would guarantee him certain opportunity. Jones has also struggled with injury in each of his first two seasons, and last year he served a suspension for a drug arrest. On top of that, he was a draft pick of the previous regime, which the new head coach has no ties to.

This isn’t to mean that Jones won’t keep his job. He should, and there is a very good chance he will. The upside with Williams is that there is uncertainty with Jones given the reasons laid out above, and that Jamaal Williams just isn’t a very good player. That alone opens the door for Dexter to earn a significant role in a good offense with an elite quarterback.

However, the holdovers from the previous regime are both under contract for two more seasons. While it’s possible that Jamaal Williams could be cut following the 2019 season (and potentially earlier), the Packers may not be in the market for a running back next season, given the depth on their roster. If Jones continues to fall out of favor with a new coaching staff, Dexter could reap the benefits. However, he needs a lot to go right, and there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Rashard Mendenhall. I had an incredibly difficult time thinking of a pro comparison I liked for Williams. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compared Williams to Mendenhall, and that is one I like more than most I could think of myself.

Mendenhall was a productive NFL running back until the wheels fell off, and Williams has the potential to be the same. Like Williams, Mendenhall was an instinctive runner who had a great feel for the position, wasn’t particularly elusive, but had good burst and agility for his size. They are nearly the same size, and both were only the starter of their college teams for one season.

Mendenhall retired early for personal reasons, but he was a very productive NFL back, totaling 39 touchdowns and just over 5,000 scrimmage yards in six seasons.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Williams is our 30th ranked rookie, with one ranker rating him as high as 25th and one placing him as low as 44th. He is our RB10, coming in as high as seventh and as low as fifteenth.

There is significant variance in where Williams is selected in rookie drafts. In May Rookie ADP mock drafts, he was the 38th player selected on average. In actual rookie drafts in the month of June on MyFantasyLeague, Williams was the 34th player off the board, starting as early as 27th but not lasting longer than 38th. In superflex drafts, Williams falls to 36th and frequently is available in the early fourth round.

When throwing darts at players in the late rounds of our rookie drafts, we want to target players with upside who are in good offenses and tied to elite quarterbacks. Dexter Williams fits this profile, and this is where the entire case for Williams comes into play. Given some of his concerns, Williams would probably not be a player to target if his cost was higher, but because he’s frequently available into the third (and even fourth) round, the upside he presents is worth taking a chance on. However, his price is slowly rising as the offseason progresses, and this is something you should be aware of if trying to acquire him.