Yuck. I guess the best thing you can say about the guys who are 10-3 on this list is that team drafting them likely won the previous year’s championship game.
2.5 hits in 10 years at the 1.12 shows there’s no guarantees in the first and odds are you’re going to draft a miss.
Well it’s not “THE” pick, it’s “WHAT’S” picked. If you are drafting a WR or RB at 1.12 you are likely picking the fourth or fifth best. Why????
When you could be drafting the #1 TE or QB which is more likely to be successful.
The article makes total since when viewed properly. It’s the what not the position of the pick that’s concerning.
GM
Rookie pick value is predicated on hope, so it’s not just the “picks from past,” but also what was available AT THAT PICK. I drafted Njoku at 2.02 and Engram 2.04 a few years back. Kamara went 2.03. A look back at the late first (for me at least) and seeing what talent emerged from picks in that range gives me hope and keeps me interested in acquiring picks. If I know late first has a low hit rate like this article shows, but there are difference makers available then that hope will keep us coming back to the well! Rookie drafts are half the fun.
Good article, looking forward to the others. If you could add notable players drafted after the pick (same draft) then that would be interesting to see. Thx
