Dynasty Value of the Record-Breakers

Dwight Peebles Posted On November 29, 2019

A trio of superstars have taken a step forward this season to become the top players at their positions statistically, breaking records and putting up video game numbers along the way. All three are young and in their first four seasons, and all are winning leagues and contributing points in bunches for fantasy teams.

Lamar Jackson is changing the way the quarterback position is played – doing what other quarterbacks such as Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham have done but doing it at a higher level with more efficiency. He is on pace to shatter the most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback record.

Michael Thomas is on track to corral in over 150 receptions, which would best the record of 143 set by Marvin Harrison in 2002. He is on pace for over 1,800 yards as well – a number only five receivers have eclipsed in history.

Christian McCaffrey is the third of the record-setting trio. Through 12 games, he has 1,709 total yards and 16 touchdowns and his down weeks are still amongst the top five at the position – he is simply dominating and not slowing down at all.

These three young players have increased exponentially in value since they have entered the league and each could be argued to be the most valuable players at their respective positions. Below, I will outline their value and what to expect for each of their futures from a dynasty standpoint.

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

Jackson has seen the highest uptick of value in the 2019 season. He is the league MVP at this point and has led the Ravens to a 9-2 record. His passing numbers are solid. He has grown this season and has 2,427 yards passing with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Jackson has completed nearly 67% of his passes and is making good decisions with the ball. The rushing yards put Jackson in an upper echelon – he has 876 yards rushing and six scores, putting him on pace for over 1,200 yards rushing, which would crush the quarterback rushing record of 1.039 yards set by Michael Vick in 2006.

The young Ravens quarterback is only 22 years old, one month younger than the potential top quarterback to be drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft, Joe Burrow. Jackson is in his second season, his first full season as a starter after a brilliant college career at the University of Louisville. On the DLF Trade Analyzer, his value in single quarterback leagues is 363.8 and the number jumps to a staggering 703.8 in superflex/2QB value. Jackson’s QB Rank is currently 3.2 but this number is bound to increase. In perspective, Patrick Mahomes is currently carrying a superflex/2QB value of 889.7 in the Trade Analyzer and Deshaun Watson is at 782.1. Some other dynasty players in the same area as far as value are Russell Wilson (686.6), Nick Chubb (699.7), and Michael Thomas (710.9).

word image 11

The value will increase as Jackson continues to play well, the safe floor his rushing numbers provide make him a valuable asset. He is 21st in the NFL in rushing yards but does have five fumbles. He is growing as a passer and making much better throws, taking fewer risks, and he makes the entire Ravens offense incredibly dangerous. Jackson is the leading scorer at quarterback and overall by quite a margin per Fantasy Pros scoring.

The only argument one can make is Jackson will not be able to sustain these rushing numbers forever. We have seen rushing quarterbacks before and they do not sustain rushing numbers for more than a few seasons typically. Michael Vick is the benchmark for quarterbacks who are dangerous runners as well – Vick had a 13-year career and is the all-time leader for quarterbacks rushing yards with 6,109 yards. He was able to notch several seasons of more than 100 carries including one season rushing for 676 yards on 100 carries at the age of 30. Vick only played 16 games once in his career but did start 15 games in three other seasons. He remained dangerous and a true threat to run throughout his career and didn’t pass the 1,000-yard mark until his sixth season when he set the rushing record for the position.

Taking into account all of the above information, it’s hard to say Jackson can’t sustain the blistering pace he is establishing for at least several more years. Watching him play, he doesn’t take many big hits and he runs smartly – he is incredibly elusive and shifty as a runner. The passing should continue to improve as well and the Ravens have provided him with dangerous options around him who can buoy his fantasy value on games in which he doesn’t run as much.

Verdict: Jackson is a QB1 and a threat to be the QB1 for the foreseeable future – draft or trade for Jackson with confidence.

Michael Thomas, WR NOS

Let me preface this segment by stating first, my own humble opinion is – Thomas is a bad, bad man and the best wide receiver in the NFL by a pretty decent margin. He is a strong route runner with great hands, he rarely drops a ball and has an 84% catch rate this season with 78.6% on his career. To put this in perspective – the statistic of catch rate was started in 1992 and over Jerry Rice’s last 13 seasons his catch rate was 62.4%. Thomas catches nearly everything thrown in his general area.

This season has been a testament to how good he can be – the argument against drafting Thomas early in dynasty was always one of the uncertainties of his statistical dominance after the great Drew Brees retires from the Saints. The 2019 season has seen Brees miss five games and Thomas’ dominance did not skip a beat in those. The pace he is on in a points-per-reception format would put him at 383.7 – the third-highest total all-time in the format. The pace without points-per-reception figured in is at 231.7 which would be 30th all-time because of how valuable touchdowns are in standard scoring.

2019 is his fourth season in the NFL and he has improved every season in nearly every statistical category. Thomas is only 26 years old and playing for one of the more stable franchises and was rewarded with a huge contract this season. He has a DLF Trade Analyzer value of 802.7 and is the fourth overall player in single-quarterback format. The value in Superflex/2QB is 714.1 and Thomas is at seventh overall in this format. Other players in the same value spectrum are Davante Adams (727.1), Odell Beckham (696.1), and the aforementioned Lamar Jackson (704.5).

word image 12

Thomas is nearly the top-valued wide receiver and his value should remain there. He is in a prolific offense with an offensive-minded coach and is entering the prime years of his career. The ascension and improvement every season statistically will obviously level off at some point but he is currently one of the most dominant and sure receivers in the NFL.

The only knock is still going to be the quarterback situation – Drew Brees is nearing the end of his career and Teddy Bridgewater filled in admirably but is not under contract next season with New Orleans. If both are gone, the situation is very much up in the air – Thomas can be the most dominant and polished wide receiver in the universe but a poor quarterback could still lead to statistical struggles. At the least, it could stifle the numbers a little and then the value drops quickly – when a player is at the top and someone is paying the price to get the top guy, they expect the numbers to back up the hefty price tag. If news breaks of Brees retiring, it could provide a window for you to buy Thomas at a depressed value and I would feverishly buy in this case.

Verdict: Despite all this information above, there still seems to be some in the community who undervalue Thomas – if you find them, aggressively target them. Thomas is going to be a WR1 for at least the next three-five years.

Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR

“Run-CMC” is in the midst of one of the most dominant fantasy seasons in quite some time, and he is putting up historic numbers. He is leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,123) and rushing touchdowns (12). McCaffrey set a goal of 1,000 rushing and receiving yards before the season but may fall a little short in receiving – he is at 586 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns through 11 games. The numbers project to 2,484 total yards – it would be the second-highest total in NFL history behind the 2,509 total yards by Chris Johnson in 2009.

McCaffrey is in his third full season and at the age of 23, he was recently given a Madden rating of 99 – and he is the youngest player to ever attain the rating. He runs between the tackles, outside, catches passes – he literally does everything one could ask of a running back. The Carolina offense is helmed currently by their backup quarterback and defenses are able to devote a little more attention to McCaffrey but it has not slowed him one bit. Per Fantasy Pros, he is second in fantasy scoring behind Lamar Jackson and one of only two running backs in the top-15 of standard scoring. McCaffrey is one of the few running backs backing up the draft capital you spent on him this past off-season.

Speaking of 99 ratings – he is the 99 rating pertaining to value in the DLF Trade Analyzer – McCaffrey has a 982.0 value in 1QB leagues and 907.9 in Superflex/2QB formats. The single quarterback value is the first overall and the Superflex/2QB value is fourth overall with comparable values being Patrick Mahomes (890.1) and Saquon Barkley (856.8). It’s crazy to think you would need to add a second-round pick to Barkley to get close to the value of McCaffrey right now. Before the season, it would have been unthinkable and reversed – you would have had to add to McCaffrey to get Barkley!

word image 13

McCaffrey has hovered near the top since the beginning of the season and should be there – there is nothing to suggest this will decline. He has been durable and hardly missed any time in college either. Even being the focal point of the offense, opposing defenses have not been able to slow the talented young back. The Panthers have some talented wide receivers and a looming question at quarterback after the season but McCaffrey’s role as “The Man” is unquestionable.

In three seasons, McCaffrey has averaged over 23 touches a game, with over 800 touches in 37 games. The big question going forward is, when will he break down? He is only 23 and is a top-notch physical specimen. He doesn’t take a lot of huge hits but does a good share of tough running in between the tackles and does take a good share of wear and tear. The Panthers would be wise to find him some help in an upcoming draft with talented backs who can be drafted later in the draft. McCaffrey has still been extremely productive – averaging nearly six yards per touch. A decline in touches would not sink him out of the RB1 stratosphere entirely unless it was a drastic decline. This might allow him to have another five-six productive seasons and is why he is the overall top valued player in non-superflex leagues.

Verdict: If someone were to part with McCaffrey and not want your first-born child, he is a player who can anchor your dynasty squad for the next five years. He is putting up fantasy numbers we haven’t seen since LaDanian Tomlinson. He’s a bonafide stud.