Twitter Observations: Week 11
Now that we’ve arrived at Week 11 of the season, we can no longer chalk things up to flukes or outliers. There are certifiable trends that impact the upcoming off-season. For many dynasty leagues, trade deadlines have passed but it doesn’t mean we can’t start looking ahead to off-season deals. Below are a few up-and-coming players who could end up as either a building block or on the trading block.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Jumping the Chark
https://twitter.com/smartfootball/status/1196131344046313480?s=20
Ever since breaking out in week one, DJ Chark has played like a WR1. He’s seen eight or more targets in six of his ten games this season while also scoring in six games. Among all pass catchers, he’s in the top 15 in receptions (85), top ten in receiving yards (796) and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (eight). This is all while catching the ball from a combo of Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew at quarterback. It’s not bad for a receiver who never topped 1,400 receiving yards for his entire college career.
Dynasty Impact: If there were an award for most-improved dynasty player this season, it may well be Chark. He’s jumped from the 92nd receiver in dynasty ADP in August all the way to 26th with room to grow before season’s end. It was hard to envision this kind of breakout for Chark in the off-season but maybe it shouldn’t have been. He was a second-round pick just last year thanks to some freakish combine numbers. He also played at a wide receiver factory in LSU and had little-to-no competition at the position in Jacksonville. The fact he’s put up WR1 numbers despite who was at quarterback is promising. I would value him as a low-end WR1 this off-season and a good trade target as he could be slightly undervalued among the next rookie class of receivers.
Dolphin Sense
DeVante Parker weekly PPR finishes since Week 4…
WR14 (17.0 pts)
WR26 (11.8)
WR15 (16.5)
WR32 (11.9)
WR21 (15.7)
WR31 (11.9)
WR9 -pending MNF) (20.5)— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 18, 2019
Stop me if you’ve heard this before but DeVante Parker is showing flashes of being good! Again! This time, however, it might actually stick. He’s totaled either 65 yards or a touchdown in seven of his ten games this season, most recently this last week when he caught seven balls for 135 yards. The former first-round pick is currently on pace to shatter his personal bests in a season after totaling 40 catches for 604 yards and four touchdowns so far. Yes, it’s helped to have one receiver traded away (Kenny Stills) and another go down to a season-ending injury (Preston Williams) but it’s still nice to see Parker finally realizing some of the potential that made him a first-round dynasty pick.
Dynasty Impact: Another player who’s vastly improved his dynasty value, Parker was the 71st receiver in ADP in August but has improved to 55th – another value as he’s currently fantasy’s 27th-highest scoring receiver this season. Like Chark above, Parker is another under-the-radar receiver who will be a good value target this off-season. Yes, he’ll be 27 in 2020, but he’ll presumably get an upgrade at quarterback and will have first dibs on targets after re-signing this past off-season.
Freeze the Juice
The Bucs seemed to have benched OJ Howard today. He played 44% of the snaps in the first half and 8% in the second half.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 17, 2019
Yikes. OJ Howard, the now-25 year old as of today (Happy Birthday!) had so much promise heading into this season. He was a first-round pick, improved in his second-year and the Bucs hired coach offensive specialist Bruce Arians as head coach. But nothing has gone right for Howard this season. He has just 17 receptions for 223 yards and one score and is just fantasy’s 37th-highest (!) scoring tight end. And this as part of a passing game that’s supporting two top-five fantasy receivers. With these most recent developments, it’s now officially time to panic on Howard succeeding in Tampa.
Dynasty Impact: There’s little doubt Howard’s dynasty value has taken a nose-dive this season. He was being drafted as the fourth tight end off the board in dynasty startups and is now generously going off as the 11th. But at this rate, 11th might be too generous. If he stays in Tampa, he has serious work to do to get out of coach Bruce Arians dog house with backup Cameron Brate still lingering. If he goes to another team, its uncertain how Howard will fit in. I would cash out if you can while Howard still has the illusion of having dynasty value.
Loose Allen
Since returning from the Bills' bye week, Josh Allen is the QB2 🙃
— BTSC Steelers (@katemagdziuk) November 18, 2019
Count me as one of those skeptical when the Bills traded up to land Josh Allen. Not only was he a very raw prospect coming from a small program but they gave up a ton of draft capital to do it. And if you looked at just his passing numbers this season, you’d still have your doubts. He’s thrown for only 2,200 passing yards and 13 touchdowns and that’s after week ten’s three-touchdown performance. It’s a far cry from, say, Jameis Winston’s passing numbers of 3,000 yards and 19 touchdowns. Yet Allen has just as many fantasy points as Winston thanks to another aspect of his game.
Much like fellow 2018 rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson, Allen has added significant value to his fantasy season thanks to the run game. He’s rushed for over 330 yards while adding seven rushing touchdowns. Do the math. That’s 33 points for the yards plus another 42 points for the touchdowns for 75 additional fantasy points. It would take another 19 passing touchdowns (in most leagues) to match that! The run game has done wonders to offset any concerns fantasy players had about Allen’s ability to score points through the air.
Dynasty Impact: Allen’s current dynasty ADP is a low-end QB1, which lines up with where he is in fantasy scoring this year. Going forward, he can be your starting quarterback in 1QB dynasty leagues as long as the offense is built around the run game like it is. Allen can model his fantasy success after Cam Newton who ran for more than 500 yards and five touchdowns in each of his first five seasons, all while finishing in the top-five at his position in fantasy points-per-game in each of those.
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