Sunday Six Pack: Week Six
Mike Havens tackles six questions pertinent to every dynasty team owner heading into week six of the 2019 NFL season.
1. WHAT’S GOING ON WITH Odell Beckham?
Some might say that he’s having a bit of a slump. People are starting to wonder if they should hold or sell. Did his prime come and go? Are we witnessing the down turn of his career?
Beckham has 23 catches for 335 yards and only one touchdown so far this season, but I don’t focus on the results so much as I do the opportunities. Beckham has 43 targets on the season, which ranks him ninth overall among wide receivers. His 23 catches on 40+ targets are the fewest in the NFL.
We all know his ability to catch the ball, so that’s not the reason for the under-performance up to this point. I think we have to blame a combination of Baker Mayfield and the ineffective offensive line in Cleveland. The lack of upfront blocking and the inability to escape pressure is forcing Mayfield to throw errant shots to his receivers.
The bottom line: Don’t sell low on him. Hold onto him and wait for a rebound. Offensive lines always improve over the course of the season, and so will Beckham’s catch rate. If anything, this might be the best time to buy shares before it’s too late.
2. IS Chris Godwin THE BEST WR IN TAMPA BAY?
He’s currently third in yards (511) and first in touchdowns (six) among WRs in the entire NFL. Has Godwin supplanted Mike Evans as the best wide receiver in Tampa Bay?
I don’t think so.
The Buccaneers gave Evans a brand new five-year $82 million deal just a year ago. They paid him according to what they expect of him going forward. He isn’t going to be supplanted this easily.
Being the number one wide receiver on the team means you have to play the best corners on the opposing defense. Godwin, by default, is lining up against the number two corner on a weekly basis. He has 42 targets vs Evans’ 38, and has made the most of those targets with a 76.74% catch rate, one of the best rates in the NFL.
I don’t know if it’s fair to compare the two WRs just yet, but I do think Godwin could be the lead man on most other NFL teams. He’s performing as a true number one WR, but I think he still has a ways to go to supplant Evans as the lead receiver on the team.
We might see a shift in defensive game-planning that allows for Evans to see more targets vs easier competition. We also might see James Winston start to pepper his star receiver before we see another Adam Thielen/Kirk Cousins situation. I like where Godwin is headed, but I think it would be too premature to call him the true #1 on the team just yet.
3. WHAT WILL THE BACKFIELD LOOK LIKE IN SAN FRANCISCO?
I think we saw a microcosm of what to expect going forward on Monday night. The carries clearly belong to Tevin Coleman, but Matt Breida will still get his fair share. The duo will help each other stay fresh all game long, as the 49ers look to establish the run on game days.
They’ve run the ball 154 times and thrown 114 passes, which means they are passing on only 42.5% of offensive plays, the lowest rate in the NFL. The average NFL offense does a 60-40 split on pass vs run plays.
The fact that the 49ers run so much means that they will be able to maintain viability for more than one running back.
The re-emergence of Coleman shouldn’t be seen as a threat to Breida or his owners. Instead, it should be welcomed as this allows Breida to have the freshest set of legs going into the fourth quarter, and vice versa. This is similar to the way things happened in Atlanta with Devonta Freeman and Coleman, where Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator.
Don’t fret over owning one RB over the other. Both guys will get the work needed to put up fantasy points. They are cheap alternatives versus other running backs in the league, so if you need a guy to help you down the stretch, an investment in either Breida or Coleman would be wise.
4. IS OJ Howard ON A DECLINE?
So far this year, Howard has 11 catches on 14 targets for 141 yards and zero touchdowns. This was the season that everyone was buying in; it hasn’t yet paid dividends to fantasy owners.
Last season he looked like he was having a coming out party. In 10 games, though, he only averaged 3.4 catches on 4.8 targets for 56.5 yards per game. Those numbers are not outstanding by themselves. What really pushed him over the top was the five touchdowns he had in that span.
So far this season, he is averaging over two catches on over three targets a game. He averaged 11.77 yards per target in 2018 and is averaging 10.07 yards per target this year. That’s not a big enough difference to be able to jump to any conclusions. The biggest difference is his target-share, and that’s easily explainable.
The emergence of Godwin has a lot to do with the productivity, or lack thereof, we’re seeing from Howard this year. In addition, Winston averaged over 38 attempts per game last year as a starter versus 33 attempts per game this year. If anything, Howard’s workload is actually on par to what it was last season, minus the touchdowns.
I don’t think it’s time to panic. Godwin’s emergence mixed with the lesser workload for Winston means a slightly lower production for Howard. It’s not a decline, it’s just numbers.
5. IS Cooper Kupp A TRUE WR1?
My inside voice wants to deny this is true, but the stats are currently suggesting otherwise. He’s second in receptions and fourth in yards among all WRs in the NFL. So what’s changed this season that’s made him so great?
Kupp tore his ACL last season and some of his recovery required re-learning how to run. Part of his process was to study his form to eliminate imperfections in his stride. In doing so, he claims he is now nearly two miles per hour faster than he was last season. This alone makes him even better than before.
The issues at RB are forcing Jared Goff to throw the ball more this season. He currently leads the league with 222 pass attempts, with nearly half of those passes coming in the last two games alone. The Rams are 0-2 in games in which Goff makes more than 40 pass attempts, and 3-0 in games in which he is under 40 pass attempts.
I think the Rams will try to work on running the ball more, which means fewer opportunities for players like Kupp down the road. But if the running game can’t get right, perhaps Kupp is on pace for the best season a Rams WR has had since the days of “The Greatest Show On Turf.”
6. WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE QB SITUATION IN JACKSONVILLE?
I’m a huge Nick Foles fan. I love his story and I love his game. He was signed to a massive 4 year $88 million contract this past off-season, only for it to be spoiled by a broken left clavicle during week one’s loss to the Chiefs.
In comes Gardner Minshew, the rookie darling from Washington State where all he did was win games. That carried over to the NFL, where Minshew has led his team over a tough stretch to a 2-2 record. He has nine touchdowns to one interception on 165 pass attempts, a rate that is second to only the great Patrick Mahomes (11 TDs and zero INTs on 195 Attempts).
Foles will heal sometime this season. The question I’ve fielded more than once: will he retain his starting job? I think the answer is yes. He was signed to a huge deal, he played well in limited action in his only game, and there’s a possibility that the offense is so easy to run that anybody can do it.
The only way he loses his job is if Minshew can rattle off several wins in a row leading up to Foles’ return. If that happens, the coaching staff may be forced to keep him on the field, relegating Foles to backup duties.
Minshew quickly became a fan-favorite due to his on-field skills and likeness to Napoleon Dynamite’s character Uncle Rico. The fans love him, the players love him, and the team is performing well when he’s under center. What do you do when the Super Bowl MVP regains form? I’m happy I’m writing articles and not making decisions in Jacksonville.
We welcome your comments and questions on these and other dynasty subjects as the NFL swings into week six action!
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