Tight End Premium: The OJ Has Soured in Tampa
The tight end position in fantasy football was a burning dumpster full of fecal matter in 2018 . . . if you didn’t own one of the top-five at the position Travis Kelce (14), Zach Ertz (16), George Kittle (23), Eric Ebron (33), and Jared Cook (45) all finished in the top 50 of PPR scoring last season. The disparity between the haves and have-nots at the tight end position in fantasy football was significant.
Of all of the players to finish as a PPR TE1 in 2018, six of the twelve (50%) had an August 2018 DLF startup ADP over 100, while three (33%) were being drafted after the 175th pick late last summer. Finding value at the position is more important than ever as a trend in the dynasty community grows: the tight end premium league. In this format, owners are given an extra half (or sometimes more) point per reception, or are forced to start two players at the position, and sometimes both. The walls are closing in on those dynasty owners who still choose to punt on tight end.
This article series will give savvy dynasty participants a leg up in identifying both undervalued tight ends you should buy right now and overrated players you should sell at their maximum value. All of the trade examples are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder, but please remember these are just examples. The specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations. The price to acquire OJ Howard in the DLF Staff League will likely be much different (read: higher) than in your home league with a few inexperienced players.
Today we take an in-depth look at Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end OJ Howard. Many expected Howard to enter the elite tier of dynasty tight ends in 2019, but instead he’s been on the back of a milk carton in terms of statistical production.
Snap Share Does Not Always Equal Fantasy Production
If someone told you two months ago that Howard’s snap share through the first two weeks was 85.8%, there wouldn’t be much doubt the ‘Bama alum would be well on his way to a top-five fantasy season. Yet, as the colorful Lee Corso always says “Not so fast my friend!” Through two games, Howard has converted five targets into four receptions, 32 scoreless yards, and a fumble. In worse news, all of those stats were from Week 1 as the Tampa tight end received zero targets in week two despite playing a career high 92% of the offensive snaps. His 5.2 PPR points on the year are fewer than such fantasy football stalwarts as Derek Carrier, Maxx Williams, and Tommy Sweeney. Who?? Exactly! The biggest difference (among many) is none of these tight ends cost their owners a fifth/sixth round startup pick or a high trade bounty this offseason.
A good majority in the dynasty community (present company included) ignored the warning signs of Bucs head coach Bruce Arians history of limited tight end volume, thinking Howard would be an outlier based on his immense talent. The assumption made by analysts and dynasty degenerates alike was Mike Evans and Chris Godwin would be the first two options in the passing game, yet Tampa Bay would have such a Charmin-soft defense that Howard could still get plenty of volume on a team needing to pass early and often.
Unfortunately, like much of the first two weeks of this fantasy football season, things haven’t unfolded as planned. While Godwin (25.4%) and Evans (22%) have the highest target share on the team, the third most targeted player is . . . former Ravens’ draft bust Breshad Perriman (15.2%). Also, the Tampa Bay defense has been anything but a doormat as they rank in the top ten (seventh) in points allowed per game. This defensive improvement comes at the expense of passing attack as the Buccaneers rank 26th in the league in passing yards per contest. If this trend continues, there won’t be enough volume to have three fantasy relevant pass catchers.
Bruce Arians on OJ Howard
Before deciding on a dynasty path forward for the big-bodied tight end, what does head coach Bruce Arians have to say about the slow start?
“You’d probably have to ask him. He’s got so much talent and he can play a heck of a lot better than he’s playing.”
Motivational tactic or not, one thing is clear from the above quote: the boss is less than pleased with Howard’s performance thus far. However, the most concerning aspect of Arians’ statement is zero mention of ensuring the tight end is more involved in the game plan moving forward. Most often, coaches/coordinators will overcorrect when an uber-talented player has a couple of poor performances in a row, but this is not one of those cases.
First and foremost, the Bucs won the game on Thursday night despite Howard’s fantasy disappearing act. The victory ensures little to no pressure from either fans or beat reporters to force feed him the ball. Also, does Arians strike you as a person who can be easily swayed by outside forces? Not a chance! The outspoken coach has found offensive success in the past without heavy usage of a tight end. This appears to be the plan in his new home.
Dynasty Trade Value/Conclusion
The trade market for Howard has been buzzing since last Friday:
OJH/JJ Arcega-Whiteside/2020 1st for Evan Engram
OJH/JJ Arcega-Whiteside for Jared Goff (SF)/Austin Hooper
OJH/2020 4th for Darren Waller/2020 3rd/2021 2nd/2021 3rd
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: for a player to succeed in fantasy football he must have both the talent and opportunity. Nobody will doubt the athletic gifts bestowed upon Howard, but he will lack the volume with Arians in town to be an every week fantasy starter. I envision a frustrating, inconsistent season where a double-digit performance is followed up the next week by a two-point clunker.
If you’re desperate, you can strike a deal similar to those above but that’s selling too low for my taste. I will be holding the Bucs pass catcher until he has a big week then offering him to a needy owner. According to the Dynasty Trade Analyzer Mike Williams, Jarvis Landry, Chris Carson, and Derrius Guice are similarly valued to Howard. If someone offers you any of these players straight up for the underperforming tight end, accept the deal and run.
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