DLF’s 2019 Predictions: Bust of the Year

It’s now been over 200 days since the Patriots defeated the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. That’s over 200 days of content including research, articles, podcasts and more getting ready for the next fantasy season.

Well, the wait is almost over, as the 2019 NFL Football season is right around the corner. That also means that it’s time for DLF’s 2019 Fantasy Predictions. As we do every year, we have several different prediction articles for you in the following categories:

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

Best Dynasty Sell

Best Dynasty Buy

Fantasy Sleeper

Bust of the Year

Sleeper Rookie of the Year (outside our top 24)

Fantasy Rookie of the Year

Fantasy MVP

Next up in the series we throw some shade with our picks for Bust of the Year:

James Conner, RB PIT

He currently holds a 15.50 ADP rating and is being drafted as the RB7. The hype train is moving full speed but the brakes must be pumped before it’s too late. In an aging offense he fits the Pittsburgh system well, but is already capped at his ceiling. Jaylen Samuels proved to be a great second option and will steal a handful of reps, especially in the passing game. I predict he finishes as the RB13. – Noah Ballweg

Damien Williams, RB KC

Damien Williams is in such a good situation. If he stays healthy he will likely make this prediction look silly. However, I could tell myself so many stories of how he does not remain the starter for the entire year. Newly-signed LeSean McCoy, Darrel Williams, and preseason darling Darwin Thompson are right there waiting to steal some touches should he not perform up to expectations. – Kyle Holden

Damien Williams, RB KC

Let me clear the air . . . do I think he could still have a serviceable year? Yes. Do I think he is worth a 3rd round pick? Absolutely not. I think Williams is an average talent in a fantastic situation. I don’t even think he is the most talented RB on the roster, maybe not even the 2nd most talented back. He is replaceable in that offense and I think he will lose the starting job before the year is over. – Levi Chappell

Chris Godwin, WR TB

Drafting Chris Godwin as the wide receiver 18 is a redraft move disguised by misplaced age bias, soaked in hubris. If you think he can co-opt Mike Evans for the lead role, I understand that. It would be remarkable and unprecedented, but I like the player. If he doesn’t, in dynasty? Oh boy. There are more proven players at a lower cost and at similar points in their career (Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd) and talented players with as much promise (Christian Kirk, Mike Williams), not to mention some with much less in their way to greater potential (N’Keal Harry, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis). His age cannot cash the check drafting him in dynasty right now is trying to write. – Peter Howard

Joe Mixon, RB CIN

Mixon seems like a safe bet compared to some in the top-15 players drafted, but I have concerns about the offense that lost two of their top linemen for the season. He’s got the talent, but I can’t see him putting up the numbers you expect when you draft a running back that early. – Dwight Peebles

James Conner, RB PIT

Currently being selected as the 18th player off the board and the tenth running back, there is absolutely no way I’m paying that price. The but-Pittsburgh-has-always-used-a-lead-back crowd is going to be very sad as the year goes on.

All off-season, Steelers players said they were running more two-back sets and that they had been doing so towards the end of last year in practice. The team brought in Jaylen Samuels’ old position coach from college and the team selected another running back, Benny Snell, in the draft. Conner will not see the workload or production he saw in 2018, and will not live up to his current ADP. – John Di Bari

Amari Cooper, WR DAL

While Cooper did improve his fantasy numbers once he moved to Dallas from Oakland, he was anything but reliable. Still showing a lot of boom or bust potential it’s very unlikely he returns the value of a top-12 wide receiver as he is currently being drafted. – James Koutoulas

Antonio Brown, WR OAK

This feels like a safe bet. He’s a walking drama machine and I’m not sure how much work he’s getting with Derek Carr. Even if he finds his way to Week 1, that receiving corps is pretty gross and he should see constant double teams. – Doug Green

Dante Pettis, WR SF

This hurts me as a rabid 49er fan, but he’s looked terrible all training camp. The two rookies (Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd) are going to take work away, as they’ve looked great all off-season. Trent Taylor, who was looking amazing in training camp, will come back from injury and garner more touches. Marquise Goodwin is still there, and George Kittle will be getting the majority of those targets. Pettis will regress in year two. – Mike Havens

Leonard Fournette, RB JAX

Fournette has simply fallen out of my trust tree. Nagging tissue injuries doomed his 2018 campaign, and while power is a staple of his game, I am generally not a fan of backs maxing out their frame. A fairly pedestrian receiver as well, I see his floor as far too low to justify his current late-round-two ADP. – Rob Willette

David Johnson, RB ARI

I know people are drinking the Kyler Murray Kool-Aid, but there are major red flags surrounding Johnson’s overall dynasty ADP of 9.83 (10th overall). First, there’s Kliff Kingsbury being a first-time NFL head coach and coming from the college ranks where his record wasn’t exactly stellar. Second, a rookie signal caller surrounded by a herd of unproven rookie wide receivers fighting for depth chart supremacy and one future Hall of Famer in Larry Fitzgerald. Third, an offensive line better fit for the AAF or XFL. Turning 28 in December, it feels like we might not get to see Johnson at his peak performance again before this offense figures it out. I’d rather draft an elite wide receiver and then pair him with Conner or Nick Chubb. – Eric Olinger

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR PIT

Look, I get it. Now that AB is gone, there’s approximately 1,000 targets out there for Juju to build on. But I remain skeptical that A) the Pittsburgh offense can operate at the same efficiency and B) Smith-Schuster can overcome the top-receiver attention he’ll start getting. He’ll be good, but not at his ADP. – Michael Moore

James Conner, RB PIT

He’s being drafted just outside of the first round in startup drafts, and will need to hit his peak to justify that cost. I think 2018 goes down as his high water mark. He’s an average athlete on what should be a worse offense, with impressive second-year man Jaylen Samuels nipping at his heels. A finish as a low-end RB2 doesn’t scream “bust,” but relative to his cost it will be highly disappointing. – Eric Hardter

Derrick Henry, RB TEN

Listing a “bust” is always a tough thing, because picking a good football player to bust is prime material for people to dig up and use against you for the rest of your career. That’s why I’m picking Derrick Henry (zing!).

In order for Henry to return value as a top RB2, he will need to be run at an insanely high volume while also avoiding injury and/or wear and tear on his legs. Without any real receiving work to fall back on and with the return of Delanie Walker (not to mention second-round selection AJ Brown) adding more passing weapons, it is hard to expect Henry to replicate the rushing production he had over the final eight games in 2018 – which still only had two 100+ yard performances. His one carry against the Jaguars would be his third best game of the season alone. – Ryan Miller

Antonio Brown, WR OAK

While the analytics community is drooling over his words on Hard Knocks, don’t let that fool you into jumping on the crazy train that is Antonio Brown. It’s only a matter of time before Carr overthrows the seven-time Pro Bowler and all hell breaks loose in the Raiders’ locker room. Mike Mayock’s statement this past Sunday won’t be the last time in 2019 a member of the Oakland hierarchy has to make a plea to AB in the media. – Josh Brickner

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR PIT

No one will argue that Smith-Schuster was an incredible weapon alongside Antonio Brown. However, playing without a top-five receiver in the league will lead to much, much more attention from secondaries. It’s very possible that I end up eating my words here, but it shouldn’t be assumed that a primarily slot receiver who produced most of his yards on underneath routes, will ascend to a new, pure number-one role. – Stephen Gill

Antonio Brown, WR OAK

Regardless of all the off-field helmet, foot, and mustache drama, Brown saw a decrease in some significant markers last year, but his perception was inflated due to a lot of touchdowns. Now with a new QB in a new offense, the ugly may rear its head on the field too. – Austin DeWitt

Antonio Brown, WR OAK

This pick should hardly be a shock by now. Even if every warning light on the dash wasn’t going off, he’s already reached the age where so many elite receivers begin to decline, not to mention the downgrade at QB. Let go, and get something back if you can. – Jacob Wolf

Damien Williams, RB KC

Career backup who is 27 and the high YFS in his career is 416. We aren’t talking about a second- or third-year player who hasn’t gotten a shot yet. His ADP is crazy at 45. – Bobby Koch

David Johnson, RB ARI

I don’t know if we’ll ever stop chasing 2016 with DJ, but if he has another down year we might finally give up the ghost. I don’t buy that the Kliff Kingsbury offense will be the next big thing in the league, either. It’s not like we haven’t seen an Air Raid attack before. I know dreams of 1,000/1,000 from Johnson dance in our heads, but sometimes the reality doesn’t live up to the fantasy. – Ryan Finley

There you have it. Who are you avoiding with the plague as your Bust of the Year? Comment below!