Four Rookies Being Overdrafted
Each and every year the hype around rookies is interesting to watch. There are some players who the hype train pushes higher and higher with each passing moment, like Bishop Sankey and Rashaad Penny, and then there are others where the train just never seems to leave the station. At some point – on those trains that just seem to have the accelerator pushed to the floor – you need to get off before the big, inevitable crash occurs.
In this year’s rookie drafts, I feel there are four players who are on a train that is bound to crash. Now, before I go any further, I’m not saying these players are all going to bust and be worthless. In fact, I would venture that the odds say at least one of them will be productive. I’m just saying that at their current price tags, I believe there are better and potentially safer options available in your rookie drafts.
Let’s take a look at the four, in order of where their ADP (in a 12-team league) on MFL rookie only drafts has them being drafted.
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
Current ADP: 1.06
One quick caveat with Murray. If you are in a superflex/2QB league, then it isn’t really possible to overdraft Murray. He needs to be considered at the 1.01 in those leagues. There is still a lot of risk, and he isn’t the slam dunk that some other quarterbacks have been in recent years, but he is definitely in the running at that pick.
While Murray is easily worth an early first-round pick in superflex or 2QB leagues, I don’t think you even start looking his way until after at least nine or ten picks in a traditional one-quarterback league. Yes, I know he was a dynamic player in college and everyone wants to believe he is going to follow the Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield career path in terms of early career success. However, let’s examine just a handful of the hurdles that Murray will need to overcome:
- He is on the far extreme in terms of quarterback size
- He had just a single season as a starter in college
- The Arizona Cardinals had one of – if not the worst – offensive lines in 2018 by most metrics
- He has a first time NFL head coach/playcaller in Kliff Kingsbury
- Outside of the 36-year-old legendary Larry Fitzgerald, he has three rookies and a second-year player as receivers
- The team is going to try running a college offensive system in the NFL
Maybe Murray will do it and be great, but I think it is much more likely that he has some early career struggles while they all try to figure it out. Given the risk and all the things that have to go just right for him to be great at some point in the near future, I’m not willing to pay a middle first for him in a one quarterback league. He’s currently 12th on my board.
Darrell Henderson, RB LAR
Current ADP: 1.08
Unless you have been completely avoiding all sports media for the last few months, you have heard all about Todd Gurley and his mysterious knee issues. Depending on the day and where you look, the news seems to range from there being no issues at all to them needing to do a knee replacement and his career being over. The truth is, of course, somewhere in the middle. I don’t think Gurley is going away, but I think he might see his workload shrink down to about 60-70% of the snaps. The remaining part could go to one of several running backs, with Henderson being in that mix.
People who are drafting Henderson in the middle of the first – and I’ve seen him as high as 1.04 – are drafting him as if Gurley isn’t going to play anymore. While I don’t think that will happen, let’s pretend it does happen. Training camp rolls around, Gurley’s knee swells up, and he can’t play anymore. That would mean Henderson could step up but he would be joined by Malcolm Brown, whom the Rams refused to let walk in free agency, and 2018 rookie John Kelly. While Henderson is most likely the best of the bunch, I don’t think the Rams would just hand the full-time job to him. I think it would turn into a committee approach. Again, I don’t think Gurley is going to disappear, but even if he did, Henderson is sharing this backfield. I like him at least half a round later than this.
Mecole Hardman, WR KC
Current ADP: 2.01
If you’ve been paying attention, the first two players are both being hyped up due to two of the bigger news stories of the NFL off-season; Kyler Murray going first overall in the NFL draft and Gurley’s knee issues. People tend to overreact to news and push players a little too high as a result.
Another huge news story has been the domestic violence situation surrounding Tyreek Hill. For those of you who don’t know: while in college, Hill plead guilty to a plea bargain case after he hit and strangled his pregnant girlfriend. He was given a slap on the wrist in the form of three years probation, which happened to end in the fall of last year. This off-season, he was back in the news on child abuse claims. The district attorney has gone on record saying: “We believe a crime has occurred; however, the evidence doesn’t establish who committed the crime.” In other words, because the woman who he had previously hit and strangled three years ago was refusing to testify, they can’t prove Hill did it. You can obviously tell my feelings on the situation, but I digress.
Enter Mecole Hardman. Due to the position he plays and the timing of the Hill incident, people assumed that Hardman was Hill’s replacement. I think there are two major errors in that logic. First and foremost, I don’t think Hardman is that kind of player. Yes, he is undersized and really fast, much like Hill. He is also a great returner. However, he is an extremely raw receiver and not ready for anything close to a starting role. I think he’s a return specialist who might turn into a receiver in a few years. The second major error in logic is that the Chiefs really don’t seem in a hurry to punish Hill in any way. Instead, they are going to wait until the NFL comes in to play the bad guy and punish Hill for his actions. You combine the two and I don’t see a path to fantasy relevance for Hardman in the near future. He’s not on my radar until over a round after his ADP.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL
Current ADP: 2.02
Unlike the first three players on this list, there isn’t a huge NFL off-season storyline attached to Brown. His hype is instead centered around a combination of little factors which add up to something bigger. Him being the first receiver off the board, going to an offense with a wide open depth chart, and a team with a young, exciting quarterback has powered his hype train.
Of the four players listed, Brown was my smallest objection. This is partly due to his college production and partly that first-round receivers have a better chance than most to work out. However, there are a lot of question marks surrounding Brown right now. He has a foot injury, which for a player who relies on his speed, is a bit of a concern. Then there are the overall size issues. Brown is ten pounds lighter on a slightly taller frame than Tavon Austin. If Austin was “too small” to play in the NFL, what does that mean for Brown?
The final major concern I have for Brown is the offense he is playing for next year. Yes, it has a young, dynamic quarterback, but it is a quarterback who has struggled to pass the ball consistently. I don’t know that the passing game can develop enough to support someone with Brown’s skill set and make them a consistent fantasy producer. I’m also not even certain that Brown has the most potential for rookie receivers on his team.
Once again, there are a lot of risks involved with Brown. Overall, if I had to choose between drafting Brown at the end of the first/early second round or taking his new teammate, Myles Boykin, a full round later, I would roll the dice on Boykin.
Those are my four rookies being drafted in the first 14 picks who I feel are being over drafted a bit, some by half a round others by way more than that. Who are your rookies you feel are going a little too high right now?
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
