Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Andy Isabella, WR ARI

Bruce Matson Posted On May 15, 2019

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Name: Andy Isabella

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Arizona Cardinals

College Team: UMass Minutemen

Draft Status: Round two, 62nd overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 5’8’’
Weight: 188 pounds
Arms: 29 ¾’’
Hands: 8 3/8’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.31
Bench Press: 15
Vertical Jump: 36 ½’’
Broad Jump: 121”
3-Cone Drill: 6.95 Seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.15 Seconds

STRENGTHS

Elite level speed and can easily take the top off the defense
Versatile skill set; can play both slot and on the perimeter
Has the short-area quickness to rapidly get in and out of breaks
Runs a diverse route tree
Can quickly accelerate to top speed
Has a nasty double move
Very dangerous after the catch and can eat up yards in open space
Tireless worker with good character

WEAKNESSES

Limited catch radius
Can get knocked off his route
Struggles beating press coverage
Not a consistent hands-catcher; will allow balls to get into his body
Defenders can easily get into his basket at the catch point
Limited experience playing against high-level competition

OPPORTUNITIES

The Arizona Cardinals are currently a fresh slate. They have a new coach, Kliff Kingsbury, who is looking to install an air raid passing attack. Couple that with number one overall draft pick Kyler Murray, and the team is looking to make some big changes in 2019. There aren’t many stable pieces within the offense. Larry Fitzgerald could retire at any time. The Cardinals don’t currently have a true alpha receiver. There’s speculation that Christian Kirk could take over as the team’s go-to pass catcher, but that’s a wait-and-see case.

Ambiguity is a young receiver’s best friend. Isabella has a chance to take over in a situation in dire need for someone to take the reigns and be the guy. We could see multiple wide receivers ascend and become fantasy relevant once the smoke clears. Right now, we can only speculate, but Isabella can immediately see the field and could emerge to be one of the team’s top pass catchers early in his career.

THREATS

His long-term production will rely on Kyler Murray’s development. If Murray transitions into a prolific passer, Isabella will be a very reliable fantasy asset. If Murray struggles, Isabella could become a non-factor in fantasy. That’s the nature of the beast. Inefficient quarterback play can kill a wide receiver’s production. We won’t know until the bullets are flying in live games how Murray will acclimate to the NFL level.

Not only are there questions about how the Cardinals’ new rookie quarterback will transition to the league, but we don’t exactly know if Kliff Kingsbury can be effective. He had a 35-40 record during his tenure at Texas Tech, with a 19-35 record in Big 12 conference play. During this time, the Texas Tech offense was able to produce video game like numbers by averaging 326 passing yards and 3.12 passing touchdowns per game. His air raid system seems promising, but until we see it in motion we don’t know if his leadership will translate to the NFL game.

The flow of targets is another threat to Isabella’s fantasy production. He will be fighting Kirk, Hakeem Butler and Fitzgerald for targets. Kirk is a talented young receiver who could demand a large market share of the targets in the near future, making it harder for Isabella to get a foothold in the team’s target distribution.

Fitzgerald just signed a new one-year deal and it appears that he’s on a year to year basis with the team. Theoretically, if he chooses, he could be with the team for a few more years. He’s a legend, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he gets grandfathered a few more one-year deals down the road. Eventually, he’s going to retire and probably will after this year.

Don’t forget about Butler. Just because he fell to the fourth round, doesn’t mean he’s not talented.

David Johnson is one of the best receiving backs in the league. He saw a 16.07 percent target share last year. As long as he’s on the team, he’s going to be a major focus in the passing game. In 2016 he caught 80 passes for 879 yards and four touchdowns.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Isabella should see the field early in his career. His snap share should be decent; his target share might be a different story. It’s too early to tell who is going to be Murray’s favorite target but the odds say he’s going to rely on the veteran pass catchers during the early stages of his career.

Kingsbury is more than likely going to us Isabella as a field stretcher to help open things up underneath. Since he will get a decent share of the deeper passes, his quality of targets won’t be that great. Nonetheless, just seeing the field as a rookie and receiving 50-70 targets is very good for a rookie. His role should gradually grow with the team in year two and three.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

I expect him to be one of the key components of the offense. He should be implemented as a versatile chess piece, stretching the field on one play, then running short to intermediate routes out of the slot on the next. Fitzgerald will eventually head out to pasture which will direct some vacated targets to Isabella. His usage might provide volatile fantasy production, but he’s also going to receive enough targets out of the slot to elevate his floor.

All-in-all, he’s projecting to be a volatile WR2 in fantasy. He might have a few down years where he’s a WR3 and he might have a year or two where he might sneak into the back half of the WR1 production ranks. This may or may not be your cup of tea, but considering his potential combined with landing spot and draft capital, he should be a fantasy relevant asset within the next few years.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Isabella is a mix between Brandin Cooks and Tyler Lockett. His play style is very similar to Lockett’s. Both players can play in the slot and be deep threats along the outside. Isabella, however, is a better athlete. He’s a little bit bigger and faster than Lockett and his overall athleticism is very similar to Cooks.

He also draws some similarities to Cooks when it comes to route running and the different ways he can be deployed. Cooks is much better at the catch point and does a better job at attacking the ball while it’s in the air.

These three receivers have their differences but when you take in the sum of their traits, they’re on a similar archetype. If used properly, Isabella could deliver similar results to Cooks and Lockett.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF Rookie ADP, Isabella is being selected at pick 13 in rookie drafts, making him an early second-round selection as the ninth wide receiver off the board. Personally, I’ve seen him fall to the mid-second round. I’ve also seen him drafted in the late first round.

When compared to the other wide receivers in the class, he’s routinely getting drafted behind N’Keal Harry, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Parris Campbell, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown and Hakeem Butler in rookie drafts. Of course, there’s some volatility from draft to draft, but he’s generally a late first-round to early second-round selection at this stage of the game.

Isabella is a tremendous value for what you’re getting at his ADP. He’s an athletic receiver who was productive at the college level. He also has the draft capital to back him up. His price point makes him a low-risk option, because once you get to that stage of the draft the odds of getting a long-term fantasy producer fall off the table.

Isabella has the potential to develop into a valuable dynasty asset. He could be a rock-solid WR2-3 on your team, or at least a stable flex-play in the next few years. No player is 100 percent bust proof, but he has a relatively high floor when compared to his price point.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.