A View From the 1.10: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 24, 2019

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

Note: Our April super-flex rookie ADP is now available, so there is a possibility of seeing players already mentioned in previous editions of this series.

1.10

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The Pick: Noah Fant, TE Iowa

Iowa tight end Noah Fant has been a known commodity for those that play in devy leagues or follow college football closely. In some ways, his final college season was considered a disappointment as he was outshined by teammate TJ Hockenson, but that doesn’t hurt the long-term outlook of Fant. An athletic freak, Fant has the size and speed combo that most dynasty owners look for in a wide receiver, but he comes with the tight end position designation that can be so difficult to fill from week to week.

Possible Pivots:

Perhaps the most interesting pivot to Fant is his teammate Hockenson. While it appears safe to consider Hockenson the TE1 for NFL Draft purposes, dynasty owners remain split on their rookie draft value. Aside from tight ends, Kelvin Harmon and Darrell Henderson could also be options.

Trade Value:

1.10, Giovani Bernard for Mark Ingram, 5.11, 6.02
1.10, Phillip Lindsay for 1.05
1.10, Robert Woods for Sony Michel, 2020 second

Super-Flex Options:

Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State

As mentioned in a previous edition, North Carolina State receiver Kelvin Harmon has been losing value since the Combine. At this point, I think it would be a surprise if he is even chosen in the first round of most dynasty rookie drafts. A top twelve draft position for Harmon becomes even more unlikely in the super-flex format.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

You might have missed the release of the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer. If so, you’ll want to check that out immediately. Among its many uses is identifying the value of incoming rookie picks when compared to veteran players. I searched for the closest match among current NFL players in an effort to match the value of the 1.09 pick to give you an idea of what it might cost to acquire the pick, or who you could target if selling.

Last year, Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny was a top-five pick in most formats, but he’s obviously lost some value after a disappointing first year in which he was unable to overtake Chris Carson as the team’s starter. We have little information telling us that will change, but Penny remains worthy of a late-first round pick in this range, according to the Dynasty Trade Analyzer.

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2.10

The Pick: Devin Singletary, RB Florida Atlantic

The Combine was not kind to small-school running back Devin Singletary. At that early point in the pre-draft process, Singletary was being discussed as a top-three dynasty rookie back and a near lock to be selected in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts. A poor showing in Indianapolis brought even more questions to the minds of dynasty players, including the level of competition Singletary faced in college and his size, standing 5’7” and weighing just a shade over 200 pounds. This range in the draft now seems to be the ceiling for Singletary.

Possible Pivots:

Other players being drafted in this same range include running backs Trayveon Williams and Mike Weber, along with Irv Smith Jr.

Trade Value:

2.10, 1.04, DJ Chark for Corey Davis, 2020 second
2.10, Jake Elliott for Demaryius Thomas
2.10, 2.09 for 2.04

Super-Flex Options:

Rodney Anderson, RB Oklahoma

The market opinion of Oklahoma running back Rodney Anderson is widely varied. Many remember the amazing 2017 season and Anderson’s running style, while others have locked in to his lengthy injury history. The NFL will ultimately tell us what we should think of Anderson based on his draft capital.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

The jury is still out on Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky when it comes to both his fantasy upside along with his role as a franchise quarterback. While we just aren’t sure yet, using a late-second round pick for a young signal-caller like Trubisky is an easy decision for any fantasy team in need of help at the position.

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3.10

The Pick: Drew Lock, QB Missouri

While he seems to be a certain first-round pick, maybe even hearing his name called in the top ten picks, quarterback Drew Lock’s dynasty value has remained low. Part of that is due to the way dynasty owners value the quarterback position in general, but it also is related to Lock’s perceived limited upside as a passer.

Possible Pivots:

If you are set at the quarterback position, other players to target with the 3.10 pick include James Williams, Terry McLaurin and Elijah Holyfield.

Trade Value:

3.10, Kyle Rudolph for TJ Yeldon
3.10, Marvin Jones, Kerryon Johnson, Gerald Everett for Christian Kirk, James Washington

Super-Flex Options:

Benny Snell, RB Kentucky

Kentucky running back Benny Snell is a one-dimensional runner, but he excels in that one area, gaining yards as a runner. Snell is likely to give NFL teams and fantasy players a zero as a receiver, which is why he is falling to the third round in all formats.

Dynasty Trade Analyzer

3.10, Trey Quinn… it just makes sense. Quinn flashed in very limited opportunity as a rookie and has drawn some praise for Redskins’ decision-makers this off-season. In general, I want to avoid the Redskins offense, but Quinn is a nice player to take a shot on at this cheap price.

4.10

The Pick: Ryquell Armstead, RB Temple

Coming out of Temple, running back Ryquell Armstead has gotten little attention. A strong, punishing runner, Armstead is a force at 5’11” and 220 pounds. He’s well-worth taking a chance on at a fourth-round price tag.

Possible Pivots:

Other players falling this far include Stanley Morgan, Hunter Renfrow and David Sills.

Super-Flex Options:

Gardner Minshew, QB Washington State

I love taking chances on quarterbacks late in super-flex leagues because if they do hit, the return on investment is so huge. With that said, players like Dak Prescott don’t come along all that often.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.