2018 IDP Projections: Detroit Lions

By Tom Kislingbury

Posted on July 23, 2018

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As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2017 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The Lions have three things going for them:

1. Paper Lion is an awesome sports book. It stands the test of time and is still a great read.
2. Those uniforms are amazing.
3. They are the textbook case for tragic futility in the NFL.

At least they did have those things. In recent years they’ve been pretty average instead of terrible so they’re not even heroically bad any more. The Browns would chop off a paw for the Lions’ boring mediocrity at the moment.

Matt Patricia has taken over for that old guy with the terrible moustache and should bring some personality and fire to the job. For the purposes of this article, I’m assuming he pretty much transplants the Patriots’ defensive scheme wholesale. Of course Bill Belichick has/had major impact on game-planning but Patricia would not have held that job for so long if they did not share a lot of thoughts on how a good defense should be built.

Defensive tackle

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A’Shawn Robinson is an extremely underrated NFL player. He’s seriously good and has excellent versatility. In the Patricia/Patriots scheme, gap integrity is paramount on the line, which limits Robinson’s sack upside. On the other hand, he should be on the field a lot which will maximise his opportunities to make plays.

Behind Robinson, Sylvester Williams is the current favourite to play the nose tackle role. 21 solos is likely towards the top end of his spectrum of possibilities.

Defensive end

The Lions were a mess at end last year with four players managing significant snaps. That has not been Matt Patricia’s way, so we could see a significant change in approach here. The willingness to pay Ezekiel Ansah franchise-tag money certainly indicates it could be the case.

Ansah is the top player in all likelihood but he does not really deserve his reputation as an elite player. It’s shocking that he’s never played more than 663 snaps in a season. Over the last two seasons combined, he’s managed just 980 snaps.

All of this together implies that no single end manages to play enough to have an elite season but two or three players will be useful in individual weeks.

Inside linebacker

Jarrad Davis was drafted in 2017 to be ‘The Man’ at inside linebacker. He was given the job as soon as he got in the building but after it was apparent he still had some learning to do, he was moved out of that spot late in the season for Tahir Whitehead. Patricia is likely to put Davis back in the key role and the hype for Davis is back.

In the Patriots’ defense though, there’s really only been one just key job over the years. Christian Jones and Devon Kennard were both signed as free agents but both will struggle to have fantasy relevance. Kennard will likely play the same edge/linebacker role as Dont’a Hightower in New England. Which leaves Jones trying to earn enough playing time.

Cornerback

Darius Slay managed an absurd 26 passes defensed last season so we know he has the capability to put up big numbers.  That’s likely unrepeatable but still should see him through to a good season.

Behind Slay Teez Tabor will battle with Nevin Lawson to be the second starter.  Tabor has some physical issues (he’s not exactly rapid) but is certainly talented enough to start.  He could be a high-target option if he wins the battle.

Safety

Above we covered how there’s one key linebacker in this scheme. That’s because the Patriots have been pushing the Big Nickel revolution ahead of many other teams.

Glover Quin is likely the key piece. He translates best to Devin McCourty’s role for the Pats. Nominally that makes him a free safety but he’ll move around a lot.

Tavon Wilson is an easy fit too. He worked with Patricia in New England and will know the system straight away. He’s likely to be the best IDP among this group given he’s the closest to being a strong safety. He has had some problems staying fit but when on the field Wilson, has been extremely effective.

The final piece is likely to be Quandre Diggs. He’s plenty of people’s sweetheart because he scored a lot of points at the end of last season but it’s important to know he is absolutely not a strong safety. He picked up a lot of tackles last year because he was targeted. Not because he was efficient. He should not be relied on as a top safety.

Stud

Ezekiel Ansah. Ansah certainly has the potential to be a top end. Only around ten players in the NFL manage double digit sacks per season and Ansah has averaged nearly nine sacks a season over the last five years. That is excellent – especially given his lack of playing time.

Disappointment

Ezekiel Ansah. But again, Ansah has not proved he can play a full season. Under Patricia, when he’s asked to hold his gap more and freelance less, it remains to be seen if Ansah can be as efficient as in the past.

Dark horse

Tavon Wilson. As above, his injury history is really worrying. But he has the upside we’re looking for. If he can stay healthy, then you’re getting a box safety at really good value. He’s been going super late in start-ups and many, many IDP owners seem to have been scared off. He’s amongst my favourite candidates for the third safety on my teams.

Summary

There’s a lot we don’t know about this team. That’s often the case for teams with new head coaches but this whole team feels like it could easily get much better or much worse in a hurry. It should be a ton of fun to find out which it ends up being.

Thanks for reading.

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2018 IDP Projections: Detroit Lions