Week 17 is known as one of the hardest fantasy weeks to predict of the season. That’s why there’s a major movement to abolish week 17 championship games from season-long and dynasty leagues. However, weeks like these present opportunities for hardcore DFS fans. There’s a lot of ambiguity in the final week of the season. By analyzing the salaries and knowing where the hidden gems are at, you will be able to maximize the value of your roster.
Derek Carr, QB OAK ($5,100)
Carr has passed for 752 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. He will be playing against the Kansas City Chiefs this week who have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Not to mention they have one of the most explosive offenses in the history of football which means Carr will need to consistently pass the ball in order to keep up with the Patrick Mahomes and his star-studded receiving corps.
There are only a handful of cheaper quarterbacks on DraftKings this week, but none of them have a better matchup than Carr. Due to him playing in last week’s Monday night game, DraftKings discounted his price tag because they rolled out their salaries on Sunday night. This is a trick that you can use next year. Players who play in the Sunday nightcap and the Monday night game will get discounted on DraftKings because their salaries won’t reflect those player’s production from the previous week. Carr is a player we can capitalize on because he has a great matchup and he has been very efficient this season, completing 68.7 percent of pass attempts.
The Chiefs are expected to win this game by 13.5 points and the over/under is set at 52.5 points. In other words, Carr should be fueled by garbage time. Earlier this season, he almost led the Raiders to a major upset victory against their division rival. I highly doubt they can come close to taking down the Chiefs twice in a season, so more than likely the outcome to this game is going to be what we expect and that’s a lot of points scored by Kansas City’s high-flying offense. Carr might throw the ball so much in this game that his arm falls off.
Brian Hill, RB ATL ($3,900)
Tevin Coleman prematurely left last week’s game with a groin injury. With the Falcons out of playoff contention and it being their last game of the season, they are more than likely not going to force Coleman onto the field. This will open the door for Hill to see a sizeable workload. In the Falcons’ 24-10 win against the Carolina Panthers last week, Hill carried the ball eight times for 115 yards. The team will need to make some decisions concerning the running back position this off-season and the will likely want to give him some added touches to see what he can do.
Price is very important when we are looking for bargains on DraftKings. At just $3,900, Hill is one of the most affordable players. Usually, I recommend spending more at running back and paying down at the other positions, but if you need a cheap option then Hill is a player you might want to hang your hat on. His ownership cost combined with his potential work rate could make him a league winner in large tournament formats. However, I recommend seeking other options for cash games due to the hefty amount of risk associated with him this week. We don’t know exactly how the Falcons are going to divvy up the carries between the running backs left on the roster, making it very hard to trust Hill in cash.
The Falcons have one of the most favorable matchups this week as they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have one of the weakest defenses in the NFL. In their last three encounters, the Falcons have a 3-0 record, averaging 30.67 points per game. Their offensive output is at 447.34 yards a game against their division rival. Vegas has the over/under set at 49.5 points and they currently have an even spread for this game. From this outline, we can expect a high-scoring dogfight between the two teams which should present plenty of opportunities for Hill and Atlanta’s running game to put up fantasy points.
Nelson Agholor, WR PHI ($3,800)
In the last two weeks, Agholor has seen 12 percent of the team’s passing targets and accounted for 129 air yards. He’s reeling in 67 percent of his passes and has built a solid rapport with Nick Foles. The Eagles will be playing in a must-win game against their division rival the Washington Redskins. With Week 17 being one of the toughest weeks to predict in fantasy, staying with the matchups that we know are meaningful will help us mitigate some of the risk associated with the last slate of the season.
Even though he feels like a boom or bust proposition, his $3,800 price points almost makes him a free square. We know the Eagles are going to do everything possible to win this game and squeak into the playoffs. Your lineup still has a chance to cash if he falls on his face this week because his low price point will allow you to pay more at other positions. Due to his price and upside, I like him both in tournaments and cash games. One thing to note before we go all-in on Agholor, is that we should minimize our exposure to him just incase he flops. Sprinkle him in a few lineups, but don’t go overboard with him.
The over/under for this game is set at 42 points and the Eagles are favored to win by seven points. Philadelphia has won all three of their last meetings with the Redskins while averaging 282.67 passing yards per game in those contests. He might not be the safest option on Sunday, but he has enough upside to be a league winner.
Mark Andrews, TE BAL ($3,100)
It’s almost like Andrews was the best tight end in last year’s draft class and the Ravens should have drafted him first. Last week against the Chargers, he caught two passes for 83 yards and a score. He’s the best receiving tight end on the roster and Lamar Jackson isn’t afraid to get him the football.
At the tight end position, you either want to pay up for Zach Ertz or pay all the way down for a player like Andrews. Investing the minimum at the position limits your risk because tight end is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy football and by not overexposing yourself will help you build a more functional lineup. When there’s a lot of week-to-week variance at a certain position, it’s best to invest heavily at other spots on your roster mitigate the risk.
The Ravens are six-point favorites in this game. Vegas has the over/under set at 40.5 points. We aren’t expecting a shootout, but it should be a tough battle between two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Baltimore has won two of their last three meetings against the Browns while averaging 44.33 pass attempts in those contests. Andrews is a player on the rise and he’s looking to finish the year strong with a good performance against the Browns
Latest posts by Bruce Matson (see all)
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Darius Slayton, WR NYG - June 20, 2019
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jordan Scarlett, RB CAR - June 15, 2019
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Will Grier, QB CAR - June 12, 2019