The fantasy football stock market is constantly fluctuating and it is always important for us to know which players have a price that has become exploitable whether it be to buy or sell. Pieces like this one have been fairly commonplace in the industry for a while in both redraft and dynasty, but I will be focusing on college players for devy dynasty leagues and how their week-to-week performances are affecting their price in those leagues.
For the next two Devy Stock Market pieces, I will be review a two-round round devy mock conducted on November 18-19th with many of the top devy analysts in the industry. Players in the class of 2019 were not eligible to be drafted, so these players are from the classes of 2020 and 2021. The format that we drafted with was superflex/1 PPR.
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1.01 D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia – @AaronWilcox86
Swift entered college as one of the top backs in his recruiting class. His only major knock from a devy standpoint was a lack of a clear path to touches with so much talent in the Georgia backfield in 2017. Even with the crowded backfield, Swift ran for 618 yards with a 7.6 yards per carry in his freshman season. In 2018, Swift has continued that success as the lead back with 857 rushing yards, along with 204 yards receiving and nine total touchdowns. Swift has the talent to be a top ten NFL draft pick in 2020 and quickly become one of the top backs in the NFL.
1.02 JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State- @DHH_Mandrew
With 1,403 rushing yards, 7.2 yards per carry and seven touchdowns, Dobbins had one of the best freshman seasons in recent memory in 2017. He has been one of the top backs in the nation once again in 2018, but the production hasn’t lived up to his first season as his yards per carry has dipped 2.5 yards to 4.7 in 2018. He will likely need to return to his freshman form in 2019 to get in the conversation of being a 2020 first round NFL draft pick.
1.03 Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama- @FFPeeblesChamp
Some in the group chat were surprised to see a quarterback off the board early, while I was surprised that Tagovailoa lasted until the third pick. He is putting up numbers we have never seen at the college football level. Last year, Baker Mayfield set the all-time record with a 12.9 AY/A (adjusted yards per attempt). That record will not last long, as Tagovailoa is set to break it by a wide margin. He has a 14.3 AY/A through eleven games. While some may credit Alabama’s weapons for some of Tagovailoa’s success, those numbers against SEC defenses should all but lock him in as the top quarterback selected in the 2020 draft.
After Dalvin Cook left for the NFL, a hole was left at the running back position for Florida State. Akers, the top back in his recruiting class filled that hole quickly. He ran for 1,025 yards and seven touchdowns in 2017. However, Akers hasn’t put up the big numbers many were expecting in 2018, rushing for only 667 yards with 4.5 yards per carry in 11 games this season. His production hasn’t been poor, but those aren’t the numbers I’d expect from someone drafted in the top four. There is one thing Akers fans have to excuse the numbers being low – FSU has had one of the worst offenses in college football in 2018.
1.05 Travis Etienne, RB Clemson – @KyleHoldenFF
Etienne entered the season as one of my favorite values in all of college football. He has gone from value to one of the most valuable players in devy leagues, evidenced by being selected fifth overall. Etienne has racked up 1,158 rushing yards with 17 touchdowns to go with an 8.5 yards per carry. Etienne has 120 or more rushing yards in five of 11 games, as well as three games with three touchdowns. Etienne has entered the top tier of the highly-touted 2020 running back draft class.
1.06 Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin – @WispeyTheKid
In my opinion, Taylor was the best value of the first round of this mock. He could have gone as early as one and it wouldn’t have been a surprise for me. Taylor is on pace for his second straight 2,000 total yards season. He has improved on his great freshman campaign with 7.2 yards per carry – 0.6 more than 2017 – and has already eclipsed his 2017 touchdown total of 13 with 15 touchdowns in only 11 games. I expect more of the same from Taylor in 2019, which should put him squarely in the discussion of being a first-round pick in the 2020 draft.
1.07 Trey Sermon, RB Oklahoma – @NPowellFF
Sermon makes it six 2020 running backs in the first seven picks. While I do like Sermon a lot, I do think that there was a tier drop after the first six selections. He leads off this second tier with 1,595 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons. Sermon has been above six yards per carry in each season. First, he split a backfield with Rodney Anderson who is now injured and likely headed to the NFL. He is now splitting the backfield with Kennedy Brooks. All three are NFL caliber backs, but I believe Sermon has the most talent and will be the highest draft pick among the three.
1.08 Rondale Moore, WR Purdue – @_NickWhalen
Moore is the first player off the board who likely isn’t owned in existing devy leagues, outside of deep leagues. Moore has been one of the most explosive players in college football, tallying 100 or more receiving yards in six of 11 games, along with eight catches in eight of 11 games. Nick Whalen said on Moore: “He’s already a superstar as a freshman with a powerful and very athletic skill set.”
1.09 Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama – @FF_Skyler399
As talked about in the Tagovailoa blurb, the Alabama offense has been a juggernaut all season led by the quarterback and his top target. Jeudy had limited involvement behind Calvin Ridley in 2017, with 264 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his freshman season. In 2018, he has emerged as Alabama’s leading receiver with 1,002 yards, ten touchdowns and 19.6 yards per catch. Jeudy is the first 2020 wideout to be drafted, and I’d be surprised if that was any different when we get to the 2020 draft. If his production continues in 2019, he’s likely to be a high first round pick in 2020.
1.10 CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma – @RussellJClay
Lamb had an impressive freshman season with Mayfield as his QB, averaging 17.5 yards per catch with 807 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. That success hasn’t changed with the switch of quarterbacks: Lamb has continued to make big plays. He has 829 receiving yards and nine touchdowns through 11 games. He has been a bit of a boom/bust play, with three games over 100 receiving yards and three games below 50 receiving yards. With Marquise Brown likely headed to the NFL, Lamb has a good chance at seeing his role and volume increase in 2019, which will likely lead to more consistent production.
1.11 Jalen Reagor, WR TCU – @RobWillette24
Reagor showed his abilities as a deep threat early on at TCU, averaging 17.5 yards per catch in his freshman season and averaging above 25 yards per catch in three games in 2017. In 2018, Reagor has seen more volume, catching four or more passes in eight of 11 games. He has reached the end zone in each of his last six games, tallying eight on the season thus far. Reagor is a big-play threat who could be an early pick when he enters the NFL draft.
1.12 Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson – @_PeteLaw
Lawrence is the second quarterback off of the board in this mock draft. He was the top-ranked quarterback in his recruiting class and he has lived up to that billing early on. He unseated Kelly Bryant as starter and has thrown 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. His 64.8 completion percentage with an 8.7 AY/A show some promise that he can develop into a quarterback to be considered a top NFL draft pick when he is eligible in 2021.
Round two of this devy mock will be coming next week!
Nathan can be found on twitter at @NPowellFF