Rookie Report Card: Nyheim Hines and Nick Chubb
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2018 potential and long term upside.
The series continues as we take a look at running backs Nyheim Hines and Nick Chubb.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Nyheim Hines, RB IND
Week Four Stats: four carries, 10 rushing yards, nine receptions, 63 yards, two touchdowns (11 targets)
I heard all the comparisons throughout the spring. Names like Tarik Cohen, Darren Sproles, and even Alvin Kamara were mentioned. I couldn’t get on board. Not even a little bit.
Although Hines showed a lot of good things when I watched him at North Carolina State, I struggled to see him as the kind of player who would make a consistent impact on Sundays.
I should mention at this point that coming into the off-season I was already a big fan of Marlon Mack and his upside as a quick and shifty runner with good hands, and that fellow rookie Jordan Wilkins – who the Colts drafted in the fifth round – was a player I was interested in as a power back between the tackles. Hines was the obvious third choice for me in the spring and summer. Nevertheless, there were things about his game that I could appreciate.
While I, like many dynasty owners, was intrigued with Hines’ speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash), elusiveness and pass catching abilities in college and saw him as a big play waiting to happen, I was concerned with his size (5’-8”, 198 pounds) and vision to find running lanes. Overall, he appeared to be a change-of-pace runner with good hands which seemed to translate into a roll as a pass catching tailback that may be able move around the formation.
Honestly, that’s exactly what he’s been through four games.
With Mack banged up to start the regular season, Hines has carried 18 times for 54 yards (3.0 YPC) and a touchdown and looked uninspiring as a runner in the process. While it should be mentioned that the Colts’ offensive line has struggled, it’s fair to say Hines has been indecisive as a runner and has had a hard time breaking tackles at the line of scrimmage – both things that he struggled with at the college level.
Fortunately for dynasty owners however, Hines has hauled in 22 passes and two more touchdowns. Those catches have gone for just 119 yards (5.4 yards per reception) however and his explosive plays as a pass catcher have been limited.
On Sunday, Hines was once again bottled up in the backfield – rushing four times for only ten yards – but caught nine passes, for just 63 yards and those two scores. His 14-yard touchdown grab in the third quarter came on an out-and-up route out of the slot where he out-jumped safety Tyrann Mathieu in the end zone and got both feet in for the score. His second touchdown came on what appeared to be a blown coverage late in the fourth quarter on an angle route out of the backfield. Nobody picked him up and he caught the ball at the goal line.
Despite his big game in week four, I continue to have lukewarm feelings about Hines’ dynasty upside. Although the speed and pass catching ability he’s shown will excite many owners and give them thoughts of another Cohen or Sproles, I’m convinced he’s a much better runner and catcher than running back and his size and lack of skills between the tackles will limit his upside and keep him from making any consistent impact for dynasty owners.
Hines’ two-touchdown performance is just enough for me to be looking around my league to see if anybody is a believer. If I could get my investment back now before the much more talented Mack returns, I’d do that deal in a heartbeat.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Week Four Stats: three carries, 105 rushing yards, two touchdowns
Watching a healthy Nick Chubb at Georgia was a treat. Whether you think that only came pre-injury or felt that he returned to that form before he left campus, it’s difficult to argue how impressive Chubb was in college when he was right.
Personally, I – like most – felt Chubb was a premiere prospect up until the gruesome injury that cost him so much time on the field and most of his explosiveness in his junior year. I also felt however, that Chubb showed glimpses as a senior of that burst, and that he still had the elite upside he displayed three years prior.
Chubb’s strengths in college centered on being an all-around quality tailback. Good both between the tackles and on the edge, he showed nice decisiveness, good burst and the ability to break tackles at all levels of the defense. His patience behind the line of scrimmage followed by urgency to attack running lanes made him one of the top one-cut tailbacks in recent drafts. Possessing above average power and just enough elusiveness to make downhill safeties miss in run support, I really liked his upside coming into the NFL.
In the weeks leading up to the NFL draft, Chubb was high on my rookie draft wish list, settling in as the third in my rookie rankings. And after he was drafted by the Browns in the second round, I felt comfortable with that ranking all the way through August.
Despite playing behind Carlos Hyde through training camp, the preseason and now the first four weeks of the regular season, I still feel comfortable with that ranking.
Although he struggled for much of the preseason, carrying 45 times for 140 yards and two touchdowns, he once again showed glimpses of the elite prospect he once was as a young college tailback. The burst he showed on a 15-yard run against the Bills in week two was eye-popping and the vision, jump-cut and power he displayed on a fourth-down touchdown against the Lions in week four was enough to make me feel he still has workhorse upside.
Many dynasty owners that invested a top-five rookie pick in Chubb probably thought he’d at least split carries with Hyde and potentially even be flex-worthy depending on weekly matchups. Although that absolutely hasn’t been the case as he’s carried just ten times compared to 83 by the veteran, his potential continues to show.
Six Raiders got a hand on Chubb on his weaving 41-yard touchdown on Sunday. He was forced to stop in the backfield, slide step into a running lane and displayed great burst to get past the initial wave of defenders and excellent overall speed to race past outrun the entire Oakland secondary. Defensive backs with the angle were left in his dust which is something many naysayers questioned during the draft process.
That play alone would have been enough for me to not worry about Chubb going forward. When he blasted through the line, broke a Tahir Whitehead tackle at the second level, and once again outran the entire Raiders’ secondary for a 63-yard score later in the game, I was convinced I wasn’t missing anything.
It’s only a matter of time until Chubb will get more opportunities. Hyde is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry (83/285/5) and has a long carry of 22 yards in four games. While dynasty owners should have next to no faith in Hue Jackson to make good decisions, it’s obvious that the rookie needs a bigger piece of the pie in Cleveland. Whether that comes soon or not however, we can only guess.
If nothing else, hopefully Chubb’s performance in week four will help dynasty owners stay patient with their rookie running back. I’m sure you can tell it did for me. While I have little faith in in the former Georgia Bulldogs becoming a mainstay in dynasty starting lineups in 2018 due to the coaching staff, his RB1 upside will continue to keep my eye towards the future.
[/am4show]
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
