The Tight End Premium: Carpe Diem and Sell
The tight end position was a wasteland for fantasy points in 2017 as Travis Kelce (32) and Rob Gronkowski (36) were the only two to finish inside the top 50 in PPR scoring. Fortunately, a dynasty owner doesn’t need to spend a high startup pick or valuable trade assets to acquire a starting tight end.
Of all of the players to finish as a PPR TE1 in 2017, seven of the twelve (57%) had an August 2017 DLF startup ADP over 100 while (33%) were being drafted after the 175th pick late last Summer. Finding value is as important now more than ever as a growing trend in the dynasty community is the tight end premium league. In this format, owners are either given an extra half PPR point for receptions and/or forced to start two players at the position. Thus, the walls are closing in on those dynasty owners who choose to punt on tight end.
This bi-weekly article series will focus on giving savvy dynasty participants a leg up in identifying both undervalued tight ends you should buy right now and overrated players whom you should sell at their maximum value. All of the trade examples are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder, but please remember these are JUST examples. The specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations. The price to acquire Ricky Seals-Jones in the DLF Staff League will more than likely be much different (read: higher) than in your home league with a few inexperienced players.
In this week’s edition, I ask you to take a different approach given the apocalyptic state of tight ends (okay, that’s a little dramatic) in the current fantasy landscape. While many dynasty owners will be looking to buy some top-ranked players at the position, I recommend selling high on a few these overperformers for a healthy return of assets. Remember, a smart and savvy owner always zigs when everyone else is zagging.
YOUNG TIGHT ENDS TO SELL
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Eric Ebron, IND
1⃣2⃣➡️8⃣5⃣ https://t.co/p1CdZ86RgC
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 30, 2018
The first four weeks of the season have been kind to both Eric Ebron and his dynasty owners. The former Lions’ tight end has accounted for 17 receptions, 150 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and is the TE5 in PPR leagues. Ebron, it seems, has gained the trust of quarterback Andrew Luck as he’s second on the team in targets (30) behind only T.Y. Hilton who left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and will likely be absent from Thursday night’s contest. On the surface, it appears the North Carolina product is poised for success not only in 2018, but for the foreseeable future. However, upon a closer examination, we see a player whose sell high window is about to slam shut.
Ebron has been the main beneficiary of Jack Doyle’s absence over the last two games, catching ten passes for 73 yards and the gift-wrapped touchdown in the above video. Yet, the new Colts’ tight end has an unimpressive 47.6% catch rate as he’s needed 21 targets and dominating the tight end snap share (85.8%) to produce these numbers.
SPOILER ALERT: when Jack Doyle returns from injury, Eric Ebron will neither average 10.5 targets per game nor record an 85% snap share. In fact, the former Tar Heel was only getting 4.5 targets and playing 35.7% of offensive snaps per game with Doyle in the lineup for the first two weeks.
Doyle is still considered week-to-week and shouldn’t play on Thursday night, meaning Ebron will have a primetime telecast to further improve his trade value. If you can make a deal before tomorrow night that’s preferable, but if you want to press your luck the return for Ebron will be much more lucrative with even an above average performance against New England. The former Tar Heel has been netting second and third round draft picks over the last week, but the market will heat up after Sunday’s TE6 performance.
If you’re a contender, look to acquire a player like Jimmy Graham or Alshon Jeffery whose perceived value is lower due to age/injury concerns but should produce consistent fantasy numbers the rest of the season. In a rebuild, target underperforming rookies like Mike Gesicki or Michael Gallup whose value will rise as they get more opportunities later this season and beyond. In two weeks, Ebron will be back to being an inconsistent, touchdown or bust TE2. Cash in on his early season success now before it’s too late!
Nick Vannett, SEA
I can already hear the voices of the skeptics: “How the heck am I supposed to sell high on the TE39 with only nine catches for 67 scoreless yards through four games?!” Well, this is one of those instances where a player’s perceived value is much higher than his actual value. Rookie tight end Will Dissly suffered a torn patellar tendon in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals and is likely done for the season. Nick Vannett’s fantasy prospects will improve with Dissly’s injury, but for a limited time only.
The Seahawks signed tight end Ed Dickson to a three-year, $10.7 million contract in the off-season and the former Raven is currently on the PUP list and is eligible to return in week eight. Despite being on the field for 81.8% of the offensive snaps on Sunday, Vannett failed to take advantage of his opportunity with only one reception for a measly six yards. As soon as the former Buckeye catches a touchdown and/or produces a high yardage total in a game, SELL IMMEDIATELY! Reach out to an emotional owner in your league who is part of the 12th man, an Ohio State partisan, and/or just lost Tyler Eifert for the season.
Many dynasty footballers (hand raised) misjudged the Seahawk tight end’s value coming into this season and it’s time to recoup something from our mistake. In three weeks when Dickson comes back, Vannett returns to being the TE2 in Seattle. At the beginning of 2019, he’s TE3 and a special teams player who won’t be worth a spot on your dynasty roster.
VETERAN TIGHT ENDS TO SELL
Jordan Reed, WAS
First and foremost, my deepest sympathies and well wishes for a speedy recovery to Tyler Eifert after the gruesome ankle injury he suffered on Sunday. While it might sound cold, this horrific incident offers an important lesson to all dynasty participants; owning an aging veteran with a checkered medical history is a dangerous proposition. Enter Jordan Reed. Reed’s solid start to the season (14/168/1) ranked him as the TE10 entering Washington’s week four bye and is no doubt pleasing to his dynasty owners. Yet, due to an overwhelming list of ailments throughout his football life, it would take much less than a broken ankle to end the Washington tight end’s season or worse.
Forgive my bluntness, but I will recommend selling Jordan Reed in each and every one of these bi-weekly columns while he’s standing upright. In the last five days, the Florida product has been traded straight up for Phillip Lindsay or included with Sammy Watkins in a package for Corey Davis and Demaryius Thomas. Swapping out the injury-prone Redskin for an upside RB2/WR2 or an underperforming TE1 like David Njoku will only improve your championship prospects whether you’re in the thick of the title chase right now or a few years away.
YOUNG TIGHT END TO BUY
Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI
#Cardinals TE Usage from Weeks 3-4:
RSJ
Snaps: 81 (74.5%)
Targets: 7
Receptions: 3
Receiving Yds: 87
Touchdowns: 1Gresham
Snaps: 50 (44.5%)
Targets: 2
Receptions: 1
Receiving Yds: 9
Touchdowns: 0RSJ still TE to own in AZ. #FantasyFootball #Beredseered
— Josh Brickner (@joshbrickner) October 1, 2018
“Good things come to those who wait.”
“Patience is bitter, but the fruit is sweet.”
“Patience is a virtue.”
While these quotations offer valuable lessons in dynasty football on the discipline of self-control, they do little to comfort us Ricky Seals-Jones truthers who were expecting a better start to the year than TE18. The Cardinals offensive ineptitude is the main culprit for RSJ’s struggles, but thankfully there’s hope on the horizon for us weary believers.
In the last edition of the Tight End Premium, I predicted Seals-Jones would still have a prominent role in the passing offense even once Jermaine Gresham returned from injury. Well, the former Bengal officially made his season debut in week three and the above stats speak for themselves. The Texas A&M product is not only on the field more than Gresham, but has tripled both his target and reception total the last two games. In more good news, the Cardinals have officially made the switch to hyped rookie Josh Rosen at the quarterback position and the reviews of his first start are positive. Rosen was even able to show some nice chemistry with RSJ in what hopes to be the first of many long connections.
Arizona’s struggles on the offensive side of the ball have helped bring down the former Aggie’s trade cost. He can now be acquired for as little as inaccurate signal-caller Josh Allen in a single quarterback league. Reach out to the Seals-Jones owner in your league as it’s only a matter of time before Rosen and his 6-5, 243-pound tight end make beautiful fantasy music together.
Were you involved in a trade for one of these players? Disagree with any of my assessments? Want me to profile a specific player for the next article? Reach out and/or give me a follow on Twitter and I’d be happy to chat with you.
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