The Tight End Premium: An Introduction and Pre-Kickoff Buy and Sell
The tight end position was a wasteland for fantasy points in 2017 as Travis Kelce (32) and Rob Gronkowski (36) were the only two to finish inside the top 50 in PPR scoring. Fortunately, a dynasty owner doesn’t need to spend a high startup pick or valuable trade assets to acquire a starting tight end.
Of all of the players to finish as a PPR TE1 in 2017, seven of the 12 (57%) had an August 2017 DLF startup ADP over 100 while (33%) were being drafted after the 175th pick late last summer. Finding value is as important now more than ever as a growing trend in the dynasty community is the tight end premium league. In this format, owners are either given an extra half PPR point for receptions and/or forced to start two players at the position. Thus, the walls are closing in on those dynasty owners who choose to punt on tight end.
This bi-weekly article series will focus on giving savvy dynasty participants a leg up in identifying both undervalued tight ends you should buy right now and overrated players whom you should sell at their maximum value. All of the trade examples are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder, but please remember these are just examples. The specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations. The price of Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the DLF Staff League will more than likely be much different (read: higher) than in your home league with a few inexperienced players.
This article will focus on some higher upside players who aren’t getting their proper respect from the dynasty community. Look to get them on your roster prior to Sunday’s kickoff. Conversely, there are two players whose perceived value you should cash out on ASAP.
Young Tight Ends to Buy
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Nick Vannett, SEA
The cost to acquire Vannett will increase with the Seahawks placing free agent signee Ed Dickson on the Reserve/Non-football Injury list; therefore making him ineligible to return to the roster until week eight. This hike should not keep you from purchasing the former Buckeye’s services as his asking was dirt cheap even before Dickson’s injury designation.
Now, Vannett is in line for a starting role with a quarterback who’s shown a recent infinity for targeting the position in the red zone. Russell Wilson’s starting tight ends the last four years have averaged 13.5 red zone targets and five touchdowns per season. Additionally, Seattle has been purging talent from their defense all winter and the results this preseason have not been encouraging.
Thus, the Seahawks project to be in many a high-scoring affair in 2018 and the near future. Vannett should see a healthy target share in these obvious passing situations with a less than 100% healthy Doug Baldwin, an unproven Tyler Lockett, and the aging Brandon Marshall as his main competition for Wilson’s attention.
The 6-6, 257 pound Ohio State product was already found in the end zone by his team’s franchise quarterback early this preseason and expect this to be a familiar sight for the next 16 weeks. Vannett has been flying under the radar all off-season; don’t wait until he catches a touchdown in week one to reach out to his owner in your league to buy this TE2 with touchdown upside.
Tyler Kroft, CIN
Cincinnati starting tight end Tyler Eifert has missed 22 of the team’s last 32 games over the last two seasons and there’s a strong chance he misses time in 2018. Enter backup Tyler Kroft. The Rutgers product caught 42 receptions for 404 yards and seven touchdowns (PPR TE15) in 2017 with Eifert absent. Kroft’s success was no surprise to those paying attention as Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ offense have made the position a priority in their aerial attack. The starting tight ends in the Queen City have averaged 61 targets (12 in the red zone) and just over eight touchdowns per season the last three years.
If you own the fragile Tyler Eifert, especially in a tight end premium league, you must do what is necessary to get Kroft on your roster. In the last month and a half, Kroft can be acquired for as little as hyped Arizona receiver Chad Williams or a fourth-round pick. I was even able to acquire the former Scarlet Knight in the DLF staff league (TE Premium 1.5 PPR) for a 2019 third round pick a few weeks ago. He becomes an every-week streaming option and could sneak into the TE1 conversation with another early-season injury to Eifert.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, JAC
I’ve already provided some statistical justification of my affinity for one Mr. Austin Seferian Jenkins in early July. Thus, there’s no reason to spend another 1,300 words on my man crush. Yet, the window to buy the new Jacksonville tight end at a reasonable price could be closing. ASJ and his Jaguar teammates travel to the Meadowlands in week one to face a Giants defense which gave up the second most fantasy points per game (15.8) to opposing fantasy tight ends in 2017.
The G-Men may not have solved the dilemma of guarding the position as Browns’ tight end David Njoku caught two first-half touchdowns early this preseason. The stars are aligned for Seferian-Jenkins to have an opening game breakout. Thus, a player you could acquire for as little as a future third round pick or a combination of a fourth rounder and Jeremy Hill just a week ago will cost much more on September 10th. Treat the former Washington Huskie as a fringe TE1 with immense upside for the upcoming season. I’m trusting him as my starter at the position in the eighth version of the Scott Fish Bowl tournament.
Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI
I’d apologize for sounding like a broken record for repeatedly telling you to buy Ricky Seals-Jones. Yet, I want all DLF readers (not in my leagues) to not only reap the benefits of the Texas A&M product this season, but to do so at a discount. The fear of a looming suspension is not the only reason the Cardinal tight end can be acquired cheaply at the present moment.
Last year’s starting tight end Jermaine Gresham was recently activated off the PUP list. Still, the generous former Bengal’s week one status is in doubt and Seals-Jones appears to still be the Cardinals main receiving tight end after playing on 27 of the 31 (87%) first-team preseason snaps. Arizona has a potential out in Gresham’s contract after this season and a strong season from RSJ could see Gresham being cut.
Young Tight Ends to Sell
Evan Engram, NYG
Yes, the Ole Miss product surpassed expectations in a rookie campaign in which he hauled in 64 receptions for 722 yards and six scores finishing the season as TE6 in PPR leagues. Taking a deeper look into his 2017 performance, we notice Engram took advantage of a volume-friendly opportunity he won’t be finding this season.
Engram received 115 targets (read: needed to reach the above stats) in 2017 due to Odell Beckham Jr. suffering a season-ending injury in week four, Sterling Shepard missing five games, and the Giants operating a committee backfield. OBJ is both well compensated and back to full health (as is Shepard) and second overall selection Saquon Barkley is ready for a bell-cow workload.
If Engram needed 110+ targets to put up these top ten stats, now may be the time to sell at peak value. He is currently the third overall ranked tight-end with a startup ADP of 44.5. If you can sell the Giant pass-catcher straight-up for an upside WR2 like Marvin Jones Jr. or Brandin Cooks hit the “accept” button immediately.
Veteran Tight Ends to Sell
Jordan Reed, WAS
Reed has never played a full sixteen games in any of his five professional seasons due to six (!) concussions and a laundry list of other ailments. The Washington tight end is 28 going on 50 as his fragility has reached its peak as he’s missed almost half (14) of the regular season games the last two seasons. Still, Reed is ranked as DLF’s 15th overall dynasty tight end, and is a target for contending squads, despite the fact he’s probably another concussion away from hanging up his cleats for good.
Every off-season, dynasty owners forget about the Florida product’s penchant for injuries and it’s your duty to exploit this oversight. Even if you’re a contender, I’m getting some value back for Reed while he’s still standing upright. Package him with a young upside receiver like John Ross to snag a young tight end with upside like David Njoku. If Reed has a productive outing in week one, his value should only increase.
Were you involved in a dynasty trade for one of these players? Disagree with any of my assessments? Want me to profile a specific player for the next article? Reach out and/or give me a follow on Twitter and I’d be happy to chat with you.
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