Summer Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
The long night has finally ended for football fans and training camps are underway! There was much rejoicing all across the land, and the trade markets in dynasty leagues far and near started to warm once again. This could very well be your last chance to buy that rookie at a discount before they blow up!
To help you get a feel for the current market, I grabbed 11 other writers and we sat down for another rookie mock. Keep in mind, this is just a snap shot of the current market. Your leagues could have a very different take on a player, so it never hurts to explore the market and see what you can get!
This mock was conducted just as training camps were opening up. That means any major news which comes out a week or two into camp is not accounted for in the drafting and comments below. For example, if Devin Funchess blows out his ACL in week two of training camp, that would obviously impact D.J. Moore. However, we didn’t know what at the time of drafting. I think you get the picture! For this mock, we assumed it was PPR scoring without any glaring team needs.
If you missed the first round or second round, you should go take a look. Here is the third round.
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Early Third Round
3.01 – Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
3.02 – Kalen Ballage, RB MIA
3.03 – J’Mon Moore, WR GB
3.04 – Keke Coutee, WR HOU
At this point, we are firmly into flier range when it comes to the running back and receiver ranks. There are still some potential fantasy starters or backups at the quarterback and tight end position, but in most traditional leagues their value is pretty suppressed. It all depends on your roster make-up and what you need in this round.
Just remember, a lot of these players are here because they need a bit of time to develop and/or they are buried on the depth chart. If you are expecting immediate impact from any of the players in the third round, you will likely be disappointed. You either hope for a spark and trade them or you are in it for a few years.
Darnold was the first pick of the third round in this mock. Pre-draft, he was the top quarterback on several boards, but his selection by the Jets didn’t do him any favors. My apologies to Jets fans, but the Jets have been one of the worst run franchises in the league for a while now. Their offense is made up of players that the average NFL fan couldn’t name without some time. It isn’t a great situation. However, Darnold is talented and has the skill set to turn into a fantasy QB1. It is going to take some time and the Jets will need to get better at finding talent to surround him. If you are willing to be patient, he could be worth a shot given this kind of price tag.
From one poorly run franchise to another, the Dolphins are another one of the NFL’s “forgotten teams”. Nonetheless, even bad teams put up some fantasy points. Kenyan Drake is presumed to be the RB1, and I think he is the only back worth owning on the team. However, there are some who really like Ballage. John Houge, the writer who drafted him, shares a bit about what he likes in the young Dolphin:
“Few rookies have a clearer path to opportunity than Ballage, especially this late in the rookie draft. Drake seems to be the lead back in Miami, but he hasn’t shown enough to be considered a three-down back. Frank Gore was signed in the off-season to share early down, short yardage and goal line work, but don’t expect the 35-year old to take on much of a workload in the twilight of his career.
“Meanwhile, Ballage enters the league as one of the best pass-catching backs in this rookie class, so he likely has a role on third downs and even lining up in the slot. At 6’3”, 230 lbs, he does have the frame to take on a feature back role if Drake is injured/ineffective, but even in the worst case scenario, Ballage likely has the most defined role in the Dolphins’ RBBC.”
J’Mon Moore just might be the best pick of the entire round when all is said and done. The reports out of mini-camps and OTAs were very favorable. In fact, he was running with the first team due to some injuries above him on the depth chart, and it was going well. I think he is the favorite to be the fourth receiver for the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers. That means he is one injury away from being on the field for almost every snap and potentially WR3 value. It is a very crowded depth chart in Green Bay and things can still change in training camp, but he is the young receiver I want to own if I can’t get one of the three starters.
The 3.04 pick in the mock was Keke Coutee. While I really like Moore, I’m pretty indifferent on Coutee. I see him as more of an important special-teamer and depth player – someone who is good enough to be in the NFL but not good enough to be a starter in the NFL. I threw that idea out to George Kritikos and asked him to enlighten me a bit on Coutee.
Here is what he shared: “Keke Coutee is the type of sleeper option I like – a receiver who showed well in college and has the speed and agility to become a good receiving option on an emerging pass first offense. Hopkins may be the number one here, but Coutee could show more versatility than Fuller and become the second target in Houston.”
Middle of the Third Round
3.05 – Dallas Goedert, TE PHI
3.06 – D.J. Chark, WR JAC
3.07 – Jordan Wilkins, RB IND
3.08 – Jaylen Samuels, RB/TE PIT
The 3.05 selection of Goedert is one of the more interesting selections of the mock. Pre-draft, he was the top tight end on the board for the majority of people. It wasn’t by a huge margin for most, but he was still there. Now he’s routinely falling into the late second round if not third round like he did here. The talent hasn’t changed, but the opportunity just doesn’t seem to be there for him.
With Pro Bowler Zach Ertz ahead of him, it is going to be a bumpy road. The Eagles do use multiple tight ends a lot, but even if you add up all the tight ends not named Ertz last year, you get a 36-378-6. Even if Goedert slightly improves on what Brent Celek and Trey Burton did last year – which I’m not sure he can do – there isn’t a whole lot to hold on to from a fantasy standpoint. An injury to Ertz could definitely change things, but without that injury, Goedert is a long-term play.
Chark is a very interesting player for me. LSU receivers have a fairly good track record in the NFL as of late, even when they don’t post great college stats. Chark definitely has some athletic ability as evidenced by his Combine performance. He also flashed at time in college, at least as much as a receiver in the run-first, run-second, and run-third offense of LSU can do.
Potentially most important, he was a team leader and someone who put in the time and effort to improve every chance he had. Jacksonville has a fairly crowded receiver depth chart, but I think Chark has the talent and the work ethic to climb the ranks. They will need a better quarterback for him to truly be effective, but he is a solid stash.
The Colts are going to be one of the more interesting teams to watch this August and September. Not only due to the return of Andrew Luck, but also because they have a lot of offensive positions which are a little up in the air. Aside from T.Y. Hilton and possibly Jack Doyle, no one else is guaranteed a meaningful role. I think Marlon Mack is the back to own, but I wouldn’t be willing to bet much money that he ends the season with the most fantasy points.
It is possible Wilkins could play his way into the early down role for the Colts, especially if Mack gets injured. Wilkins has enough talent to be a committee back in the NFL, so it is worth a shot at this point in the draft. Chances are he is off your roster by this time next year, but he could also turn into a back-end RB2.
The 3.08 selection was of a player I really want nothing to do with. It isn’t due to his athletic ability though, because Samuels has that in spades. It is because I really don’t have any clue where he fits on a fantasy squad or even on his NFL team. The Steelers currently have him listed as a fullback, but he could just as easily be a tight end or something entirely different. I don’t see how that translates to fantasy. He could be a great weapon for the Steelers though.
I asked Ryan Finley to help me see the light on Samuels: “This is the pure dart throw area of the draft. I didn’t know a lot of about Jaylen Samuels until I decided to write his rookie profile for DLF. I was really impressed with what I saw in his film. He was everything for NC State, lining up all over the field, and he was successful everywhere. He just couldn’t be stopped.
“He won’t blow anyone away if you just focus on his measurables but on the field, he struck me as a guy that really understands how to succeed as a football player. I could see a scenario where an offense like Pittsburgh can take advantage of a player like Samuels.”
Late Third Round
3.09 – Mark Andrews, TE BAL
3.10 – Josh Allen, QB BUF
3.11 – Chase Edmonds, RB ARI
3.12 – DaeSean Hamilton, WR DEN
The final four picks of the mock draft feature one player from each position. Any of these players could have been swapped out for any number of other players. If your favorite flier wasn’t represented in this group or this round, don’t fret. Take them if you love them. We all have our favorites and only time will tell who is right.
Andrews is the fourth tight end drafted in this mock, and the second Baltimore Raven tight end drafted. The debate between which tight end is the one to own in Baltimore will continue on for at least a few more months. Hayden Hurst is typically drafted about a round sooner than Andrews, but that doesn’t mean Andrews can’t be the better value.
I still like Hurst, but I asked Nick to share the other side: “There’s a good chance Andrews will straight up outperform Hurst in fantasy next year and beyond. It’s true that draft capital matters, but so does draft age and college production. Andrews essentially matched Hurst’s market share of receiving yards in college despite being three years younger! Considering Hurst is going about a round earlier, that places Andrews as the better value.
“In 2010, Dennis Pitta was selected in the fourth round, one round after Ed Dickson. It’s not the perfect comparison, but there is precedence for the second Ravens tight end selected coming out on top for fantasy purposes. More likely than not, Hurst and Andrews split snaps and touches and end up frustrating owners, but if one of these tight ends is destined to break out and achieve TE1 status, I believe it’s Andrews.”
One of the Combine darlings thanks to his huge arm, Josh Allen will be a very interesting quarterback to watch develop in the NFL. He just might have the strongest arm in the whole league right now, but playing quarterback at a high level takes more than just the cannon arm. Nonetheless, this pick is all about potential and value as Jeff Haverlack explains
“One of my favorite tactics in dynasty rookie drafts is to take a quarterback late in the draft. Much of this depends on my need at the position in addition to the depth of the class. Very rarely will top quarterbacks go before overall rookie selection #15, making selections after this ideal for taking the top player off the board in the NFL Draft. I will often trade for a selection in the 17-22 range just for this purpose.
“This year, however, there are enough quarterback prospects available such that needy coaches can wait until the middle-to-late third round before taking a quarterback. Josh Allen falls into this category. He possesses easily the strongest arm in this year’s class and was drafted into the best situation for seeing the field early. He’s a raw talent and it’s very hard for me to project any quarterback in Buffalo as an eventual quality starter, but late in the third round, I’m more than happy to roll the dice and slot Allen into a roster as my developmental QB3.”
The penultimate pick in this mock, Chase Edmonds makes his first appearance in one of my mocks this year. He is climbing due to some high praise out of Cardinals camp during mini-camps and OTAs. In fact, it has been hinted by the coaches that he could be an every-down player at the running back position if needed. He is projected to win the backup role, which could make him worth a look. He is just shy of ideal size for the position with average to above average athleticism. He was highly productive in college, though it was at a lower level of competition. If you have larger rosters, he is worth a stash in case something happens to David Johnson.
DaeSean Hamilton was the final pick of the mock draft. A productive and talented receiver for Penn State, Hamilton is unlikely to be a star in the NFL but he could easily turn into a solid complementary receiver in the NFL. The starting duo for the Broncos is getting a little long in the tooth, and their contracts are also nearing their ends. It is entirely possible that within a year or two the new starting duo could be Courtland Sutton and Hamilton in the roles currently occupied by Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. You could do a lot worse for a flier at this point in the draft.
That’s it for the mock draft recap. Who are your favorite late round fliers and what do you like about them?
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
