How to Win the Third Round of Your Rookie Draft

It’s rookie draft season and owners everywhere are contemplating what to do with their picks this year. Whether you have one or ten picks, it’s important to make every one of them count. So much discussion is taking place everywhere about whether to take Derrius Guice at number two overall or perhaps which wide receiver will be the best of the class, but what about your later round picks? As much as it hurts to miss on a first round pick, making the best use of later round picks can help your team move forward despite the miss.

This isn’t an article about which players I like later on in rookie drafts, nor is it about how to systematically find “the next Stefon Diggs” (though that would be pretty cool). It’s about a strategy I’ve employed over the past few years and have found success with. I should preface my writing that I’m generally a risk-averse dynasty player. I don’t like swinging for the fences on the Josh Gordons and Jerick McKinnons at their price and tend to be buying players like Jordan Howard and Golden Tate. This mindset has me selecting players I feel will produce, at bare minimum, in the NFL and not be a complete dud for my dynasty team during rookie drafts.

As dynasty leagues have advanced and matured, especially in start-one quarterback leagues, quarterbacks have dipped in overall value nearly every year since 2014. That year, in June, there were 11 QBs selected in the top 90 overall in startup drafts. In this past month, June 2018, there were only six in that same range. In rookie drafts, the trend has followed suit, leaving many high-end rookie quarterbacks available later and later each year. This is the where I believe the market has over-reacted and what my strategy has been:

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Draft first round QBs over day three WRs and RBs later in your rookie drafts.

Late round quarterback is a fantastic strategy that works year-in and year-out. When it comes to dynasty, it’s also just as easy to employ that strategy, with valuable quarterbacks often being available for a second round pick valuation. That alone makes it easy to simply push quarterbacks aside in rookie drafts; it makes sense. Why spend a second round pick on a quarterback, hoping he pans out, when you can trade that pick for a Philip Rivers-type player? I’m all for this strategy, but it’s not how most leagues play out. At the end of the day, you still need to make draft picks that put your team in the best position to succeed.

So, why would you take a less-valuable position, QB, in your rookie draft over a WR who could, in fact, become the next Stefon Diggs? Because it’s the smarter, safer play. Here’s why:

Since ADP was established in 2014, I looked back at all the rookie players in June of whatever year they were drafted in. I wanted to specifically focus on players that were drafted in Rookie ADP between picks 20-40, which, including some variance, makes up the third round of rookie drafts in 12 team leagues. I’ve only included players below that meet either criteria I’m studying: first round QB or Day three (or undrafted) RB/WR. Rookie ADP was not collected prior to 2017 on DLF, so I used startup ADP as a proxy for years prior. Additionally, any undrafted players I marked as round eight for simplicity sake. Below is what I found, broken up by year.

2014

Year	June ADP	Player	Position	Draft Round
2014	20	Johnny Manziel	QB	1
2014	22	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	1
2014	23	Ka’Deem Carey	RB	4
2014	24	Isaiah Crowell	RB	8
2014	25	Martavis Bryant	WR	4
2014	26	Andre Williams	RB	4
2014	29	Storm Johnson	RB	7
2014	30	Blake Bortles	QB	1
2014	32	James White	RB	4
2014	33	Latavius Murray	RB	6
2014	36	Jeff Janis	WR	7
2014	38	Jared Abbrederis	WR	5

 

2014 isn’t necessarily the best year to show this strategy off (great, tell them about a time this didn’t work, Michael), as an above average amount of late round fliers have paid off for dynasty owners. In this area of drafts, we saw Isaiah Crowell, Martavis Bryant, Latavius Murray, and even James White to some extent provide value for dynasty owners at some point in their careers.

Couple that with Teddy Bridgewater’s injury and Johnny Manziel, well, being Johnny Manziel, those picks certainly have disappointed. However, Blake Bortles has provided great value over the likes of Ka’Deem Carey, Andre Williams, and Storm Johnson – all drafted above him. But I’m picking and choosing here; let’s chalk this one up as an L for my strategy as a whole and move on to what happens the next few years.

2015

Year	June ADP	Player	Position	Draft Round
2015	20	David Cobb	RB	5
2015	22	Javorius Allen, BAL	RB	4
2015	23	Marcus Mariota, TEN	QB	1
2015	28	Mike Davis, SEA	RB	4
2015	29	DeAndre Smelter, SFO	WR	4
2015	30	Justin Hardy, ATL	WR	4
2015	31	Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR	RB	5
2015	32	Kenny Bell, BAL	WR	5
2015	33	Stefon Diggs, MIN	WR	4
2015	35	Tre McBride, CHI	WR	7
2015	36	Jeremy Langford	RB	4
2015	37	Zach Zenner, DET	RB	8
2015	38	Rashad Greene, JAC	WR	7

 

Life comes at you fast. Just three years later, the 2015 draft class’s third-ish round draft is all essentially valueless except for two players: Marcus Mariota and Stefon Diggs. Dynasty owners did value Mariota fairly highly, and this draft went almost seamlessly to how my strategy would suggest. Yes, you missed out on Stefon Diggs by drafting Mariota, but he’s the only one of 12 players drafted around Mariota that hit! On the other hand, Diggs is a great asset to your dynasty team; far moreso than Mariota at the moment. Understandably though, you’re probably still a skeptic. Let’s see how the next two years played out; surely there’s more hits than one out of twelve.

2016

Year	June ADP	Player	Position	Draft Round
2016	22	Keith Marshall	RB	7
2016	23	DeAndre Washington	RB	5
2016	24	Jonathan Williams	RB	5
2016	25	Tyler Ervin	RB	4
2016	27	Jared Goff	QB	1
2016	28	Demarcus Robinson	WR	4
2016	29	Paxton Lynch	QB	1
2016	30	Alex Collins	RB	5
2016	31	Josh Ferguson	RB	8
2016	32	Rashard Higgins	WR	5
2016	33	Carson Wentz	QB	1
2016	35	Daniel Lasco	RB	7
2016	36	Roger Lewis	WR	8
2016	37	Charone Peake	WR	7
2016	38	Jerell Adams	WR	6

 

Life comes at you… even faster? What’s interesting about how rookie drafts in 2016 unfolded is that even though Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were drafted with the first and second picks in the NFL draft, in the same vein as Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota a year prior, dynasty owners did not value them nearly as high. Instead, drafters chose to gamble on the upside of many late round running backs and wide receivers hoping for a homerun.

Paxton Lynch is an obvious bust so far in his career, and Alex Collins has shown value as of late – given his third round rookie ADP dynasty owners are certainly happy with the output he’s given thus far. Even with these two added in, you’re looking at a two-thirds hit rate for QBs and another whopping one of 12 for the late round RBs and WRs. Let’s move on to the 2017 draft.

2017

Year	June ADP	Player	Position	Draft Round
2017	23	Jeremy McNichols	RB	5
2017	26	Josh Reynolds	WR	4
2017	27	Isaiah Ford	WR	7
2017	28	Deshaun Watson	QB	1
2017	29	Wayne Gallman	RB	4
2017	31	Patrick Mahomes	QB	1
2017	32	Elijah Hood	RB	7
2017	33	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	1
2017	34	Dede Westbrook	WR	4
2017	35	KD Cannon	WR	8
2017	38	Chad Hansen	WR	4

 

Life comes… ok you get the phrase at this point. This was the third round-ish of rookie drafts in June just one year ago. It’s crazy how much difference just one year can make! There were many dynasty owners who drafted the likes of Jeremy McNichols, Josh Reynolds, and Isaiah Ford over three now top tier quarterbacks simply because their positions are more valuable should the players hit.

Of this group, it’s obvious that the quarterbacks paid off big for dynasty owners with two of the three now firmly in the top ten in ADP at the position and the other not too far behind. The rest of these players? Perhaps you could call Dede Westbrook a hit, as you can probably cash out for more than a rookie ADP of 34. Being generous, this year was three for three on first round QBs and one for eight on the late-round RBs and WRs.

Summary

So what have we found analyzing the past four years of rookie drafts? Well, for one we found that when quarterbacks that are drafted highly in the NFL draft are falling in your rookie drafts, they can provide a really solid hit rate to add some sort of value to your team – with top ten upside at the position a very real possibility. Conservatively, seven of ten QBs you could have drafted with a late second round pick have provided value for your dynasty teams.

Secondly, we found that day three NFL draft running backs and wide receivers do not pan out frequently and often provide zero value just one to three years after being drafted. Since 2014, there have been six of 40 (or 15%) players that have provided some sort of sustained value for your teams – three of which came in 2014. The positional value of running backs and wide receivers is substantially higher than that of quarterbacks in these start-one quarterback leagues, but is it enough to make up the hit rate difference? Not for me, but that’s up to you to decide individually.

Next Steps

Armed with this new data and philosophy, let’s see how we can potentially utilize it for your upcoming rookie drafts this year. There are a multitude of potentially high value quarterbacks going late in rookie drafts this year, meaning you’re able to take full use of what we’ve discussed here today.

2018

Year	May ADP*	Player	Position	Draft Round
2018	20	Lamar Jackson	QB	1
2018	21	Kalen Ballage	RB	4
2018	22	Josh Rosen	QB	1
2018	25	Nyheim Hines	RB	4
2018	26	Sam Darnold	QB	1
2018	28	Antonio Callaway	WR	4
2018	29	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	4
2018	31	John Kelly	RB	6
2018	32	Deon Cain, IND	WR	6
2018	33	Mark Walton, CIN	RB	5
2018	34	Josh Allen, BUF	QB	1
2018	36	J’Mon Moore, GBP	WR	4
2018	37	Keke Coutee, HOU	WR	4
2018	38	Jaylen Samuels, PIT	RB	5
2018	39	Auden Tate, CIN	WR	7
2018	40	Jordan Wilkins, IND	RB	5

 

*May ADP used as the last DLF sourced rookie ADP (for apples to apples comparison for the data presented), MFL rookie ADP has since replaced monthly DLF mocks.

There are absolutely some prospects with high upside listed above; ones that can potentially be “the next Stefon Diggs”. Should that happen, everyone who picked that player will certainly be ecstatic they did, and it can turn around a dynasty team in a heartbeat. That’s the lure of picking the high value positions this late in rookie drafts – it only takes one to make your team take the next step.

However, I hope what I’ve presented today encourages you to think twice about pulling the trigger on DaeSean Hamilton over Sam Darnold or perhaps even consider Josh Allen over a player like John Kelly, who has quite the difficult path to success. As training camp buzz starts to form with some of these later round players, it may push them even higher – perhaps over the quarterbacks in many drafts. You’re now armed with the data to take advantage of this when it happens.

Later on in rookie drafts, I look to grab players who I think will be contributors at the NFL level. If I’ve got multiple late second or third round picks, I’ll absolutely grab a QB I like and a high upside RB/WR I may like, but if I’ve only got one pick and I have to make it count, you bet I’m going with the highly drafted QB over the day three prospect.

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