Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Michael Gallup, WR DAL
Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.
Michael Gallup may be the wide receiver value to target in this year’s rookie class. He has a potent mixture of elite production, on-film traits, sufficient draft capital, and available opportunity that could really move up him up rankings by the end of the 2018 season.
Name: Michael Gallup
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Dallas
College Team: Colorado State
Draft Status: Round three, 81st overall
Video Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQuYoT7sB6Q
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Combine Review
- Height: 6’1”
- Weight: 205 lbs
- Hands: 9.25″
- Arm Length: 31.5″
- 40 yard dash: 4.51 seconds
- Three cone drill: 6.96 seconds
- Vertical Jump: 36”
- Broad Jump: 122”
Strengths
- Production: Despite transferring in from the community college level, Gallup didn’t miss a step when he signed up with Colorado. He produced 40% of the team’s yards in his first year there at age 20. He produced higher yardage share than the average of successful NFL receiver at age 20 and 21, producing more than 30% of Colorado’s combined receiving yards and touchdowns in both years he played for them.
- Strong routes: This is usually something we find with older receivers who have had longer to develop their craft. But, added to his above-average production, it’s a strong plus for a player about to enter a wide-open depth chart looking for an early opportunity.
- Body control and contested catches: He has been compared to Dez Bryant for his ability to win contested catches and work his way behind the defense at the college level.
- Strength: His 14 repetitions on the bench press don’t represent the strength he has both at the catch point and after contact while working after the catch.
Weaknesses
- Age: He enters the league at age 22, which carries a higher bust risk, and since he only transferred into Colorado at age 20, his breakout age places him in a 28% success group (of being a top 24 PPR) based on being drafted in the third round.
- Ceiling: Gallup likely enters the league as an almost finished product. While his production was good, he has less room to grow. I think we’ll know quickly how high his ceiling is in the NFL.
- Athleticism: His athletic testing produced only mediocre results at the Combine, resulting in a 97.7 SPARQ-x score in the 28th percentile for the position. In theory, this could make it harder for him to transfer his skill to the next level.
Opportunities
A triple-star rated Michael Gallup enters the weakest wide receiver depth chart outside of the Buffalo Bills. With the departure of Dez Bryant and the likely retirement of Jason Witten, Dallas has lost 251 targets – 52% of all their targets – based on their 2017 passing game. They have also lost 2,508 air yards (65%).
On top of this, the Cowboys have added no one but Allen Hurns, and have even traded away some of their depth in Ryan Switzer.
Gallup enters a roster that – even as a run-heavy team – is desperate for someone to funnel targets to. The team has traditionally relied on a very concentrated target share and while we can expect some rookie hiccups and delay, there is no reason to think Gallup can’t earn a significant chunk of the available opportunity.
Threats
For all the positives in available opportunity in Dallas, it has to be said that the team has been uncreative in the receiving game for quite some time. Unable or unwilling to move players into or up the depth chart has meant the receiving game has stagnated under its two veteran leaders.
While Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley may not have much of a veteran claim to targets (and I guess Terrance Williams too when he’s not blocking), it is possible they suck up the majority of targets.
Dallas is not a place I want to see a raw prospect land. Fortunately, I don’t think Gallup is very raw. However, in the category of “Teams Do Stupid Things”, Dallas ranks number one when it comes to decisions about their receiving game.
Short-term Expectations
Right now I have Gallup winning the third highest target share in a more spread division than Dallas has seen in the last three years based on the wide open hierarchy that’s’ developed off-season.
With a 15% target share projection, it would take average efficiency in RAC and aDot to compile 48 receptions for 612 yards and three touchdowns. He could easily be the most productive rookie wide receiver.
I see this as a happy medium for Gallup with room to grow if he can claim more of the role from Williams or Hurns.
Long-term Expectations
Michael Gallup legitimately has a shot to be the WR1 for the Dallas Cowboys. He has the potential to develop into a top 24 wide receiver if he can win the job and find a connection with a struggling Dak Prescott who never seemed to find his stride with Dez Bryant and often relied heavily on the short routes by Cole Beasley and Jason Witten.
NFL Comparison
I don’t do many NFL comparisons but this off-season (pre-draft), I wrote a comparison piece for the top five wide receivers in this class to successful players in the NFL using market share. In it, I compared Michael Gallup’s production to that of Jordan Matthews.
While I think Gallup may be able to remain on the outside – unlike Matthews – I still find the comparison a fair one and could also easily see Gallup eating up work in the middle of the field for a QB who has struggled with the deep ball.
Projected Range for a Rookie Draft
An early second to late first selection.
According to both the consensus rankings and May’s Rookie ADP data, Michael Gallup is the 13th player off the board in rookie drafts at the moment.
He is being drafted behind D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton and Christian Kirk as the rookie WR5. However, he walks into a better situation than all but two of those players in terms of available opportunity, at least in year one. Given his potential to be the most productive rookie of the class, he’s a very nice value.
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UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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