I’ve been playing with Age-Adjusted Market Share again. Shocking, right? Anyway, instead of “dragging” you through another diatribe on the value of early production, I thought I’d do something more fun.
Here’s a look at the career usage of the most common top five 2018 wide receivers rookies and who they best compare to in the NFL. The comparisons are based on their college Market Share (MS), not them as players. Since MS has a good correlation to NFL success, this doesn’t define who they can be, but it does give a different way of visualizing what MS says about their chance of success.
These aren’t “comps”, just weird and wonderful comparisons of the amount of production they accounted for in college.
What are we Comparing? Above/below Average Market Share Yards
Using the ideas from Jon Moore (@HelloJonMoore) on RotoViz, I worked out the average MS of players in the NFL who have at least one 150 PPR point season since 2008. I’d highly recommend checking out Moore’s work, if you haven’t already, including his recent article on why older prospects can still be good if they break these averages.
Using this, you can see how a player’s production, at every age, compares to successful wide receivers in the NFL. Or, how far above or below the average MS of successful wide receivers they were. Call it the ‘Jon Moore Index’ (as long as he doesn’t mind) or just ‘Above/Below AVG MS Yards’.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things