Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Sony Michel, RB NE
Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.
Name: Sony Michel
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: New England Patriots
College Team: Georgia
Draft Status: Round one, 31st overall
Combine Review
- Height: 5’11″
- Weight: 214 lbs
- Hands: 9 1/8″
- Arm Length: 31 1/4″
- 40-yard dash: 4.54 seconds
- Three-cone drill: N/A
- 20-yard shuttle: 4.21 seconds
- Vertical Jump: N/A
- Broad Jump: N/A
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Strengths
- He has a great well-proportioned build. Michel has a strong lower body and the build to truck defenders.
- Michel has very good vision when running the ball. He’s a very instinctual runner who easily tracks cutback lanes.
- Good speed and power ratio to his game. Can run over a defender just as easily as he can turn on the jets to split defenders for long gains.
- A huge plus for Michel is that he takes the short yardage gains when they are present. He doesn’t get caught behind the line of scrimmage often trying to turn what should be a small gain into a loss of yardage.
Weaknesses
- Goes down too easily at times. Would like to see him stay on his feet and churn out more yardage at times. Needs to do a better job falling forward at times.
- Shows a willingness to block in the passing game to protect his quarterback. Needs to do a better job anchoring when blocking though as he gets pushed back. Misses assignments at times.
- Has a major issue with fumbles. Michel fumbled once per every 54.6 offensive touches which were second to last in the current draft class. Michel fumbled three times in 2016 and twice in 2017.
Opportunities
Sony Michel has the chance to come in right away and produce RB1 numbers. With Dion Lewis going to the Titans, there is a huge opportunity up for grabs as Lewis vacates nearly 35 targets and 180 rushing attempts.
We should expect that the more talented Michel can take targets and attempts from Twitter favorites Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Michel could, theoretically, lose some carries and opportunities in games where the Patriots take the lead and the LeGarrette Blount role comes in to play.
He should be able to step directly into the Patriots offense and take over the role Lewis had in this offense. With his talent profile and draft capital, Michel will be given the chance to siphon off carries and targets from other role players in the offense.
Threats
Very few threats exist on the Patriots depth chart. James White will continue to serve a role as the third-down pass catching specialist. Jeremy Hill or Gilislee might catch a break trying to be Blount lite while running out the clock during games when the Patriots have the lead.
Short-term Expectations
Dion Lewis was able to finish as the RB15 in PPR leagues in 2017 and there is little reason to think that a healthy Michel couldn’t beat that. With Lewis going to the Titans, and poor performance from Burkhead and Gilislee in 2017, I believe that Michel can take snaps from them as well.
He will need to rectify his fumbling issue or Bill Belichick will quickly pull the rug out from under fantasy owners. This is a correctable fix, as other players were plagued with fumbling issues and managed to overcome the deficiency in their game.
Long-term Expectations
He has tremendous long-term potential. The Patriots selected Georgia guard Isaiah Wynn to shore up the offensive line after Nate Solder left. Most importantly, Josh McDaniels is still serving as offensive coordinator and maximizes his player’s strengths. McDaniels also does a great job of getting his players in to space through the scheme and play call something that plays well to Michel’s speed against slower defenders and his ability to run over smaller players.
James White and Burkhead are the only two running backs currently on the roster whose contracts run into 2019. The Patriots have four years of Michel under contract and an extra season if they pick up his option. The Patriots are currently fifth in the NFL on positional spending at the RB position according to data at Over the Cap.
Picking an RB early, to me, screams that Belichick and the Patriots want a player who they see as their main lead back. When Laurence Maroney was drafted in 2006, he stepped in and immediately received 175 carries and 30 targets, and players like Stevan Ridley and Blount received the bulk of the work as well. McDaniels drafted Knowshon Moreno in 2009 for Denver with the 12th overall pick and promptly handed him 247 carries and 41 targets. So, the tandem of McDaniels and Belichick have a history of giving their RBs a majority of the work, and doing so even when it is a rookie back.
NFL Comparison
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, who lists Williams as his number three running back in the class, compares him to Kareem Hunt:
“He has a perfect build for the position and runs with a nice blend of power, quickness and elusiveness.”
NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks stated that New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara was the player that Michel most reminded him of.
Projected Range for a Rookie Draft
With the draft capital that the Patriots used to select Michel and the immediate opportunity he walks into, his value is right around 1.02-1.04 range. Rookie Dynasty ADP here at DLF has been consistent, as Michel has been on average the fourth player taken from February through April. After the NFL Draft, I could see him start to climb over Nick Chubb and likely Derrius Guice. It is wheels up for Michel in the Patriots offense as he steps into a phenomenal situation.
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Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
