2018 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
DLF was started on the back of a pizza box in the Fall of 2006. Since that time we’ve grown from a group of three to a group of nearly 60 dynasty enthusiasts who love nothing more than dynasty fantasy football. This is a great time at DLF as we turn our attention to the incoming rookie class of the NFL and start to break down rookie draft opportunities. Even after all this time, there are few things in fantasy life that get our blood pumping any more than this. These Pre Draft 2018 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings will definitely do the trick.
Many things will change over the course of the next week or so. However, this is a great time to comb through our pre-draft rookie rankings and start formulating some plans for our coveted rookie drafts picks or start thinking of trade scenarios to either acquire some picks or spin them for some veteran help for our collective teams.
In this article, I’m going to simply share a snapshot of the current consensus top twelve rookies based on our current dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings. From there, I’m going to add our pre-draft summary from the 2018 DLF Rookie Draft Guide. If you haven’t checked that out, I’d highly encourage you to do so. Instead of a stale magazine or download off the internet that gets outdated nearly instantly, this is a living guide that’s constantly updated with the latest information about the incoming class. I’ll then post my own personal thoughts on each of these players.
Also be sure to check out our complete Dynasty Rookie Rankings and Dynasty Rookie ADP data. These are essential resources for helping you prepare for and win your dynasty league rookie drafts!
1.01 = Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: Fresh off a three-year career at Penn State that featured 43 rushing touchdowns and 3,843 yards in just three seasons, Barkley enters dynasty drafts as the most coveted running back prospect we’ve seen since Adrian Peterson.
He put a nice little ribbon on his draft stock after he put on a show at the NFL Combine by running unofficial 40 times of 4.41 and 4.42. He also jumped out of the building with a 41″ vertical. Barkley didn’t disappoint and, if even possible, raised his already ridiculous stock to the point where he could be considered to be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, an honor no running back has had since fellow Nittany Lion Ki-Jana Carter was taken first overall by Cincinnati in 1995.
Simply put, Barkley is as talented a runner as we’ve seen come out in the last 20 years. Nothing will matter in dynasty leagues from now until draft time as he’s the clear 1.01 selection in rookie drafts and is likely also a first round selection in inaugural drafts this Summer.
My Thoughts: There are few players in dynasty league history who are closer to a lock for the 1.01 than Saquon Barkley. Our own Ryan McDowell was recently reminiscing about the year Reggie Bush came out being the closest thing to a lock as this and I tend to agree. While Bush didn’t have the career many hoped, he was still one of the best dynasty prospects in history.
Barkley is a transcendent talent with very few holes in his game. The only risk I see with taking him is passing up on what could be offered via trade. As Ryan pointed out in our new series, the pricetag for the 1.01 is unbelievable. I can even take it a step further. I offered a package of Brandin Cooks (pre-Rams trade), 1.03, 1.06, 1.08 and a first round pick in next year’s draft in a ten team league and was turned down instantaneously. Having the first pick in this year’s draft puts a dynasty owner in a power position we haven’t seen in a decade. If you own it, I’d suggest seeing just what kind of offers are out there. Even if he really is superhuman, Barkley is still a running back and they tend to get hurt and have a short shelf life. You owe it to yourself to at least see what you could get via trade. If nothing blows you away, chances are Barkley will – he looks like a Hall of Fame type of talent.
I expect him to end up with the Giants at this point and that doesn’t change my feelings on him one bit – transcendent running backs will produce and Saquon Barkley looks like a pillar for dynasty teams to build around.
1.02 = Derrius Guice, RB LSU
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: While this rookie draft will likely be remembered as the one that gave us Saquon Barkley, Guice is going to be a nice consolation prize for dynasty owners who don’t own the 1.01. In three seasons at LSU, Guice finished with 3,074 rushing yards (on a healthy 6.5 average) and scored 29 touchdowns. He also posted 32 catches for 250 receiving yards and three receiving scores. Those numbers are impressive in any conference but even more comforting for dynasty owners knowing they came in the always fierce SEC.
Guice is described as a downhill, violent runner who does not shy away from contact and has a nice blend of speed and power. In fact, many felt he was even better than Leonard Fournette during their time at LSU. As a bonus, Guice won’t even turn 21 until June, making him a great prospect in dynasty leagues. There will be a lot of competition to be the 1.02 behind Saquon Barkley and Guice’s landing spot will need to be considered. However, he’s certainly one of the favorites to be taken with the 1.02 in rookie drafts this Summer.
My Thoughts: If you own the 1.02 this year, your choices are likely between Guice, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. However, it really looks like Guice is the class of that second tier. He could end up with the Browns, Lions, Eagles or nearly anywhere in between. A terrible destination could make an owner think about taking one of the other running backs but Guice is the player who likely belongs second on the big board based on his immense talent.
1.03 = Nick Chubb, RB Georgia
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: Once a potential “what could have been” story, Nick Chubb demonstrated at the Combine he is still a premier athlete with immense upside despite a major knee injury which truncated his 2015 season. Highly productive and built like the feature backs of yesteryear, Chubb should have no issues making a quick transition to the NFL level. Many are down on Chubb due to his limited production in the national championship game. It is a myopic view; the Tide shut down runners of his caliber all the time.
The former Georgia star should be locked into round one of rookie drafts and despite a decorated collegiate career and great Combine, is still providing a value due to recency bias. Owners with a rookie pick in the middle of round one could be getting a future pillar to build a dynasty team around in the form of Chubb.
My Thoughts: It seems like Chubb is 30 years old at this point as dynasty owners have been eagerly awaiting his arrival for what feels like forever. His recovery from his gruesome knee injury seems to be just about complete and he had another great season in 2017 as he rushed for 1,345 yards on a healthy 6.0 yards per carry against some of the best competition in college football. Sony Michel may have stolen some of the spotlight at the end of the season but Chubb could end up being a steal at 1.03. Remember, it wasn’t long ago when many projected him to be the first player taken in dynasty drafts this year.
1.04 = Sony Michel, RB Georgia
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: Thanks to a stellar performance in the College Football Playoff, everyone seems to suddenly love Sony Michel. And yes, Sony had a solid career at Georgia totaling 3,613 rushing yards and 621 receiving yards in his four seasons there. However, the hype surrounding Michel really didn’t take off until the College Football Playoff game against Oklahoma. Granted, he put together the best game of his career, rushing for 181 yards and three scores on the ground while catching four balls for 41 yards and another touchdown. Since that game though, Sony has risen from “second tier rookie pick” to one of the top players in this draft class.
Michel originally took over the lead role for Georgia back in 2015 when Nick Chubb went down with a horrific knee injury. That season, Michel put together his best year as a receiver and carried the ball over 200 times as well. It was clear even then that Sony wasn’t just a change-of-pace back. However, when Chubb returned in 2016, it was clear Georgia much preferred Chubb over Michel as their lead back. That trend continued throughout the remainder Sony’s college career. It’s interesting to see so many people confident that Sony is superior to Nick Chubb after his own school didn’t see it that way.
Sony Michel is a balanced running back prospect. He can run inside the tackles, catch passes, and is savvy enough to make the right blocks and reads to get the job done. However, dynasty owners may be disappointed to find he may not be the top tier talent they’re expecting if they select him in the early first round of rookie drafts.
My Thoughts: Michel and Chubb are nearly deadlocked for the third pick and anyone sitting at four may have the easiest pick in the draft this season as they simply sit and wait to see which of the four running backs fall to them. Michel, Chubb, Barkley and Guice seem destined to be off the board in the first four picks and Michel would make for one fine consolation prize at 1.04. His stock is soaring and he could end up being the second running back taken this weekend. He really helped himself with a combined 279 yards against Oklahoma and Alabama in the College Football Playoff.
1.05 = Rashaad Penny, RB San Diego State
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: If you want production, Penny is going to fit the bill. He led the country with 2,248 rushing yards and scored 23 touchdowns last year at San Diego State after taking over for the departed Donnel Pumphrey. He also posted an amazing five straight games with at least 200 yards rushing to end his career and five total 200 yard efforts on the season. He also recorded a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry average on 289 carries, finishing fifth in the voting for the Heisman trophy in the process.
Penny has the prototypical size and speed needed to be effective at the next level but there are questions about his long speed and ability to outrun NFL-caliber talent at the second level. Penny also was only able to post 42 career receptions, leaving some question as to his ability to be a true three down weapon. Still, Penny looks like a first round rookie draft prospect and will be a very interesting player to follow as a team could very well take the plunge on him as their new starter and send his stock up even more.
My Thoughts: As we sit at the moment, it really looks to me like we have a first tier of Saquon Barkley, a second tier consisting of Michel, Chubb and Guice and now the start of tier three with Rashaad Penny. Make no mistake, though. If you have 1.05, you’re not going to be left out in the cold and Penny could be a great selection here. He has the skill and ability to be a true featured back in the NFL and his stock could rise a bit if he lands in a great situation. He may not be able to create the chunk plays as some other backs in this class but he seems really solid and reminds me a bit of Jordan Howard.
1.06 = Courtland Sutton, WR SMU
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: In a pedestrian receiver class, Courtland Sutton is one of few who profiles as a potential number one target at the next level. With a huge frame, plus athleticism, and excellent collegiate production, there’s little to nitpick with Sutton and at worst he profiles a quality red zone threat and complementary receiving weapon. Sutton’s play speed may not match up to his timed speed, but he is far from a plodder destined for a possession role. Sutton can play in the air and offers the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class. He is a first round rookie pick and will be the first receiver off the board in many leagues.
My Thoughts: I’m really not sure how it’s going to shake out with the receivers but it certainly seems likely that Sutton, DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley are going to be the ones most coveted in dynasty drafts. With fantasy friendly teams like Green Bay and Dallas in the market for receivers, this is going to get really interesting. At this point, Sutton tops our board.
1.07 = Ronald Jones, RB USC
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: Ronald Jones is one of the most intriguing running back prospects in fantasy and reality this year after a decorated three-year career at USC. Jones was fantastic as a Trojan and capped off his college career with a whopping 1,550 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns in 2017.
The 6’0″, 200 pound runner is being downgraded by some draft pundits because of their concern with how he’d hold up at the next level. The ironic thing here is he handled 275 touches last year and really didn’t show many signs of slowing down, picking up chunks of yardage in the process. Jones is a slashing running back with good vision and boasts one other thing NFL teams will love – he only fumbled twice on 591 carries.
Jones is clearly in the mix for a first round rookie pick in dynasty leagues, especially if he finds himself in a position where he’s drafted as a starter on day one or two of the NFL Draft.
My Thoughts: If you need running backs in a dynasty draft, this may just be your year as Jones becomes the sixth running back ranked in our top seven overall. Things are going to get very interesting if a team like the Colts was to draft Jones. He’s reportedly met with the Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Buccaneers, Redskins, Ravens and 49ers prior to the draft. At this point, we’re comfortable with Jones at 1.07. However, he could rise if he lands in a desirable position. I just wonder if some dynasty owners may overdraft him if that happens.
1.08 = DJ Moore, WR Maryland
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: DJ Moore is the potential WR1 in the 2018 NFL Draft class who nobody saw coming. However, when a wide receiver accounts for around 50% of a team’s receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, people tend to start paying attention. And that’s exactly what DJ Moore did at Maryland in 2017. He caught 80 passes for more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns on an offense that only generated an anemic 161 passing yards per game – that’s impressive.
Moore was forced to deal with a revolving door at the quarterback position throughout his time at Maryland he grew as a player every season. Even after it was quite clear Maryland’s offense ran almost exclusively through Moore, defenses still couldn’t stop him. DJ’s ability to succeed on a wide variety of routes and create extra yards after the catch made him a deadly weapon at the college level. But there were some concerns about his true athletic profile even after his college career ended. Luckily, he answered all of those at the NFL Combine, putting together one of the best athletic profiles for a wide receiver we’ve seen in the past few seasons. Standing at 6 feet tall, 210 pounds, Moore ran a 4.42 second forty-yard dash (or in other words .01 seconds faster than Odell Beckham Jr). He then followed that up with a vertical jump just shy of 40 inches, a broad jump of 11 feet, and showed above average skill in agility drills as well.
Don’t overthink things with DJ Moore. He’s going to find success in the NFL. If you’re expecting to grab him in the late first round of rookie drafts you may just miss out on potentially the best receiver in this class.
My Thoughts: Moore seems to be the receiver making the most noise as we head into the draft. He has great playmaking and return ability, making him a very intriguing prospect. Many mock drafts are projecting him to Dallas and that could be very desirable for dynasty owners. We’ll have to take a bit of a wait and see approach here but I won’t be surprised if Moore is the first receiver taken in dynasty league rookie drafts starting next week.
1.09 = Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: It seems like Calvin Ridley has been the long-time favorite for the “WR1” label for the 2018 NFL Draft class. Yes, the dynasty community has been more bullish on Courtland Sutton, but even now many draft analysts want to anoint Ridley as the top option. However, is there any evidence that justifies him even being in that conversation?
Ridley is definitely a solid route runner. That is objectively undeniable. He boasts solid pro speed with a 4.43-second 40-yard dash. Ridley (despite poor quarterback play) also grabbed at least 63 receptions in every collegiate season. He caught 49 more receptions than any other wide receiver on the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2017 and carried that receiving offense to the National Championship. There are several things to like about Calvin Ridley. However, Calvin’s overall physical profile is quite awful if you’re expecting him to be a WR1 in the NFL, let alone in dynasty leagues. His vertical jump, broad jump and short shuttle were around the tenth percentile at the NFL Combine. Calvin is also incredibly slight (only 189 pounds at 6 feet tall). He may struggle to win against press coverage with that frame. Combine that with the fact Ridley is already nearly 24 years old and dynasty owners should have some pause. In short, it’s not surprising he handled his business against much younger competition in college. Plus, at that age, it’s likely Ridley is already the best he will ever be.
Ridley may be the most “pro ready” wide receiver in the 2018 class, but that doesn’t make him the WR1 for dynasty rookie drafts. Expect Ridley to contribute for a long time in the NFL. Don’t expect him to be a stud by any means.
My Thoughts: I’m almost feeling sorry for Ridley at this point as it seems his game is being picked apart by far too many “experts” out there as we near draft time. To me, Ridley seems like a player with a higher floor than Sutton or Moore even though he may not have the ceiling of either. However, there’s something to be said about a player who can really run routes and Ridley is one of the best we’ve seen at this in quite some time. While it may take a while for some receivers to adapt to the game, my bet is Ridley hits the ground running very quickly.
1.10 = James Washington, WR Oklahoma State
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: Washington is one of the most intriguing players in the 2018 NFL Draft. Even though he doesn’t have elite speed, he is a true playmaker, as indicated by his unbelievable 20.9 yards per catch average on 74 catches last season that resulted in 1,549 yards and 13 touchdowns for Oklahoma State.
Built like a running back at 5’11” and 213 pounds, Washington doesn’t fit the mold of a prototypical wide receiver. However, he simply makes plays with his unique combination of power, strength and speed other receivers cannot. As such, there aren’t too many players in the league who you could accurately compare Washington to. He doesn’t have incredible straight line speed but is nothing less than explosive when he gets going or catches the ball. After all, you don’t just win the 2017 Biletnikoff Award and post 226 catches, 4,472 yards, and 39 touchdowns in a career without being special in college.
Washington is a very tough player to evaluate. Do you simply believe the ball skills you see on tape or think he’s somehow a product of his offense who is oddly sized for the NFL? Evaluators have likely seen enough to believe in him. He is a likely second day draft selection in the upcoming NFL Draft. His range in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts should lie somewhere in the late first or early second round as well. He may have a low floor but there’s a high ceiling here as well.
My Thoughts: I think Washington is the wild card of this draft. If you’re a dynasty owner who likes to swing for the fences late in the first round of a rookie draft, here’s your guy. If he’s truly willing to refine his route running and learn the little things it takes to be successful in the NFL, you could have a steal here. However, he just doesn’t look ready to handle NFL cornerbacks at the moment and there is some bust potential here as well. Feel lucky?
1.11 = Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: A true competitor, Kirk enters the NFL and dynasty drafts with a fair amount of intrigue and excitement. He’s been consistently productive over the past three years, posting at least 70 catches, 900 yards and seven touchdowns in all three seasons at Texas A&M. Kirk should be used in the slot next year and really helped himself at the combine, running a 4.47, which was faster than most expected. He could even provide special teams value as a kick or punt returner.
Kirk should be considered a late first or early second round dynasty draft prospect at this point as owners attempt to hit the jackpot again after the success of Cooper Kupp last year.
My Thoughts: I really like this area of the rookie draft this year because you have a shot at some really good players who wouldn’t normally be there this late in most drafts. With all the running back talent, some receivers who would normally go a few spots higher in other years will drop down to the late first and early second rounds – Kirk is one of those players. He’s certainly a short-to-intermediate target in an offense but he can really make things happen with the ball in his hands and I believe he’s going to have real value in PPR leagues very early in his career.
1.12 = Kerryon Johnson, RB Auburn
Pre- Draft Summary from our Rookie Draft Guide: The 2018 running back class looks to be fairly deep again this year. When there are so many good players to watch it’s easy to just take one glance at a player like Kerryon and label him something far too simplistic. Some call him a grinder. Others bash him for his pad level saying he runs too high. Kerryon’s game is much more complex than that.
Johnson carried the Auburn offense in 2017 with 1,391 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. He also put together eight different 100-yard games. If you wonder about the competition, Kerryon dropped 167 yards on Georgia and 104 yards on Alabama. If it weren’t for a rib injury late in the season, Kerryon may have carried Auburn all the way to a National Championship. And not only was he a threat on the ground, Johnson also posted a respectable 24 receptions.
In short, Johnson can do anything you ask him to do. Some worry about his speed, but he ran a 4.49-second forty-yard dash at his pro day. There are others who worry about his pad level. Kerryon actually runs similar to Le’Veon Bell. He may not be quite as talented, but Kerryon waits for the crease, gets small and finishes for extra yardage consistently. Through nine charted games in 2017, Kerryon gained positive yardage on more than an astounding 92% of his carries.
Kerryon Johnson may be a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type player. But don’t let that fool you. He has the potential to plug in and be the 1A in the right offense in the NFL. In the second round of a rookie draft, that’s about all you can hope for.
My Thoughts: I’m not going to pretend Johnson is in the same class as Guice, Michel or Chubb, let alone Barkley. Still, he could be a very good selection at the end of the first or early second round of rookie drafts. With a lot of teams in need of running back help, Johnson could find himself in a very desirable position as well. He’s a tough player, was productive in the SEC and has good receiving ability – that’s enough for me to be very intrigued prior to the upcoming draft.
Just missed for now: Royce Freeman, Equanimeous St. Brown, Michael Gallup, John Kelly, DJ Chark
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
