The Dynasty Fallout From the Flurry of Deals By the Cleveland Browns

To say the start of the new league year has been exciting for the Cleveland Browns would be a monumental understatement. There’s an NFL-seasoned general manager in town, and John Dorsey wasted no time turning available cap space and assets into real contributing pieces and laying the groundwork for his vision of the team going forward.

Before the legal tampering period of NFL free agency even began, Dorsey made four separate deals back-to-back and added some NFL vision to the previously fully analytic-minded front office. Before we jump into the trade summary and fallout, I want to touch on “analytics guys” versus “football guys”.

The simplest way to put this is: I really hope they find a balance between the two. I am saying this as a lifelong Clevelander and Browns fan. I want the balance to build a (God forbid) winner and (unthinkable) a sustained winner at that. There is real and true value to an analytic approach, just as there is having an experienced front office man who has done it before and knows the ins and outs of the NFL and player/price evaluation.

The debate (or argument) over these two things is quite similar to a debate that is quite common in fantasy football circles: metrics versus film. It’s quite common and I’ve been steadfast in my view that not utilizing both is leaving a large portion of the puzzle unsolved. Each work as a confirming agent for the other. I fully believe this holds true in analytics versus experience in real life NFL front office situations as well.

The flurry of deals was quite exciting and the Browns roster is now in better shape than any time in recent memory. With that being the case, I hope Dorsey can see the value in the process that got him the embarrassment of riches he has to spend and moves forward without abandoning the approach – finding a balance.

Let’s dive into these deals and who they affect in dynasty leagues, and how.

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Jarvis Landry, WR CLE

We have to start with the most prolific of the deals, and that’s the acquisition of Jarvis Landry from the Miami Dolphins in exchange for the dirt cheap price of a 2018 fourth round pick and a 2019 seventh round pick.

The first and most obvious player to dive into is Landry himself. He’s been discussed ad nauseam across the fantasy football landscape. The bottom line is you have to accept he is not a traditional ‘X’ receiver, and that’s perfectly okay. He is exceptional at what he does. He gets open in short-area bursts on the short and intermediate levels, whether it’s from the outside or from the slot. Landry should always be a heavily targeted in any system he lands in. Period. Debate beyond there feels like a fool’s errand as he’s now beyond turning in just one or two seasons of production and film confirming this to be the case.

Josh Gordon, WR CLE

There are two other winners on the Browns from a fantasy football view. Whoever is under center and Josh Gordon. I will dive more into the quarterback aspect in the Tyrod Taylor trade section, but Josh Gordon is set up so perfectly with Landry. Simply put, their skill sets complement each other utterly and perfectly and it seems an impossibility that any defense could take away both players simultaneously. Landry’s dynasty value will end up stagnant to a slight increase, while Gordon’s has yet to reclaim its rightful spot. His should skyrocket back to second round startup level by the end of the off-season and he is in the best spot he’s ever been in any season. That speaks volumes considering his 2013 season.

DeVante Parker, WR MIA

The other largest beneficiary of Landry’s new home is 2015 first round draft pick Parker, who will be given his first chance in a target-dominant role. His current market valuation seems quite low, as he’s commonly being dealt for rookie pick range 11 to 15. Each day that passes with this pricing has me moving him closer and closer to the “screaming buy” category, given the price. Furthermore, the Albert Wilson contract shows the Dolphins will move into the 2018 season with Parker, Kenny Stills and Wilson as their wide receiver trio, giving Parker a real opportunity to move into the dynasty WR1 conversation.

Tyrod Taylor, QB CLE

The next in the series of deals was acquiring bridge quarterback Tyrod Taylor from the Bills in exchange for the 65th pick (3.01) in the draft. This brings the Browns a capable starter to bridge them to their likely selection of a rookie QB with the first overall pick in the NFL draft. They also own the fourth overall pick and three separate second-rounders, so make no mistake – a rookie quarterback with real draft capital will be joining the fold. If Tyrod gets a full season as the starter, he’ll likely be looking at career-best statistical output given the weaponry. Additionally, he could be buoyed if the team are successful in their reported courting of Nate Solder. Treat Tyrod as a short-term QB2 in all formats with a large amount of uncertainty past the beginning of the 2018 season.

On the Bills side, they will draft a rookie quarterback in hopes of finding a long-term replacement and will likely look for a different short-term bridge as well. Given the state of the entire offensive roster, it’s not just plausible; it’s likely that the only real contributor to fantasy teams in 2018 is LeSean McCoy.

DeShone Kizer, QB GB and Damarious Randall, DB CLE

Once Dorsey got Tyrod in place, the next item of business was to get still raw, non-NFL-ready, second-year, second-round pick DeShone Kizer out of town. This may have been the most impressive deal of the four considering the return. The Browns received grossly miscast Damarious Randall for Kizer. In addition, the teams swapped fourth and fifth picks.

Kizer will be an upgrade (in fairness, most anyone would) on now proven inept Brett Hundley at backup in Green Bay. The Browns will return Randall to his natural free safety position after being forced into playing corner in Green Bay. This filled a glaring need in the secondary, and arguably better than any player drafted or signed could have. This is utterly an A+ move here and it can’t be overstated.

Danny Shelton, DT NE

The last deal of the series was sending Danny Shelton along with a 2018 fifth-round pick to the Patriots in return for a 2019 third-round pick. This fills a need for the Pats as Shelton is a run-stuffer and that was an area the Pats needed work in in 2017. He was expendable by the Browns view and his departure brings two perhaps outside the box, yet quite positive thoughts to mind. The first is that the Browns understand they cannot continue to be the most exploitable pass funnel the league has ever seen. The more important thought is that Dorsey may indeed be willing to embrace a bit of analytics and it is fantastic to see him filling needs but also creating more future capital in the process. I hope to see one more deal like this before the end of the 2018 draft.

Final Takeaway

My takeaway on the state of the Browns is that they are highly likely to make massive improvements immediately. I know, I know, how do you not improve on 0-16 right? I’m more looking at this as an immediate night-and-day difference with a roster more likened to a .500 team than a .000 team, and that’s before the high-end talent that will be added in the draft.

We will have a quarterback drafted higher than 22nd overall for the first time since Tim Couch in 1999 (isn’t that ridiculous to think about?). Vegas oddsmakers are setting the Browns as having greater than a 50/50 chance of landing the most anticipated running back prospect in recent memory in Saquon Barkley, and even if they only end with one of the two (QB and RB), the consolation prize is likely to be Bradley Chubb to pair with Myles Garrett as probably the most talented pair of edge rushers in the league.

No matter what happens in terms of wins and losses in 2018, the Browns will be more fun, more capable, and finally seem to have a plan in place with a positive trajectory.

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