In case you missed it, check out “Eight Players to Buy in Dynasty on the Eve of the 2018 Season“.
Lamar Jackson – QB14
The excitement for a dual-threat quarterback has gone way too far when a player with gargantuan accuracy issues and one that is unlikely to see the field prior to the 2020 season is not only being drafted as a QB2, but as the 14th quarterback off the board.
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Let’s assume for a minute that Joe Flacco has suddenly regressed (he hasn’t), and that the Ravens plan to move on from him after this season (they don’t). The latter assumption brings with it that the Ravens are willing to eat $16m in dead cap in 2019 and that simply is not in the cards if Flacco is still even mildly effective.
So half of our hypothetical assumption is immediately buried and any argument for Lamar is based on Flacco having wildly regressed to the point that the latter hypothetical assumption is completely tied to the former.
Okay, snap back to reality. Joe Flacco is pencilled in to be the Ravens signal-caller through the 2019 season (we also cannot rule out beyond 2019, but we’re following the money and ability levels here). This means those spending QB14 price are spending on a 2020 asset, barring injury. We also have to assume the terribly alarming accuracy and understanding issues that have been prevalent all preseason are resolved by that time.
Leonard Fournette – RB9
Fournette is not a sell in the sense that he’s egregiously mis-priced, he’s a sell in the sense that he’s priced as the top end of his outcomes. Unless he sheds the propensity to be nicked up that was prevalent throughout his rookie year, in addition to finding a way to keep the superior receiver T.J. Yeldon off the field in passing situations, there is no way he returns his RB1 pricing and will be a disappointment to owners, albeit not a disaster.
The main reason to sell is the return at current pricing, and there is no shortage of buyers. With all signs pointing to a player like Christian McCaffrey being elevated to bell-cow status and likely to double or triple Fournette in receptions, I am not hesitating to swap every Fournette share possible for CMC. The pivot buy after CMC is Melvin Gordon. The icing on the cake is in many cases, you can get added assets in addition to the better back in each case of selling Fournette here.
Aaron Jones – RB34
It’s not often that a player who is no lock to even carry handcuff status into the season is being drafted as an RB3, yet here we are. Injured throughout training camp, serving a two-game suspension to start the season and carrying just fifth round NFL draft pedigree is a dangerous recipe for a potentially expiring dynasty asset.
From head coach Mike McCarthy’s own mouth, Jamaal Williams is locked into the lead back role and Ty Montgomery will be in relief. There really isn’t a whole lot more to say here. Don’t pay this price for a handcuff, and get out from under the shares you have.
Kalen Ballage – RB45
What is with these day-three picks who are clearly handcuffs at best and the pricing craze??? Head coach Adam Gase recently confirmed what the tea leaves have read for ten months now: Kenyan Drake is his lead back with the potential of a bell-cow role. Frank Gore will act as the change-of-pace back, not Ballage.
There just isn’t a lot that needs to be said outside of: Don’t make this player and role something they aren’t. The RB4 price is absurd and if you are caught holding shares of “Ballage The Mirage,” remedy this situation as quickly as possible and while he still has a market!
A.J. Green – WR9
The community as a whole has been very slow to react to offensive coordinator Jay Gruden leaving Cincinnati… if you’re thinking that happened after the 2013 season, you’d be 100% correct. After posting consecutive seasons of 1,300+ yards and 11+ touchdowns in Gruden’s last two seasons, Green has hit either of those marks exactly zero times since his departure. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, it’s time to get out from under Green before his market crashes the way Jordy Nelson’s and Dez Bryant’s have.
Much like CMC and Gordon as pivots to Fournette, there is a specific player I recommend dealing Green for, that is just a little bit cheaper via market value: Tyreek Hill. This pivot to the younger player is especially a no-brainer as you likely don’t lose a thing in short term production in addition to vastly extending the life of the asset.
Stefon Diggs – WR10
Diggs is very much like Fournette in the sense that they are both not anything resembling useless players, just that they’re incorrectly priced and a pivot in a similar price range at wide receiver is warranted. It is just a curious thought process when a team’s own WR2 is being drafted as a dynasty WR1.
Diggs is not dead weight on your team and unlike most of the others on this list, he’s not an immediate must sell, but cashing out at the peak of his market is something you should certainly do. Much like with selling Green, I strongly prefer the cheaper Hill and advocate targeting him in one-for-one deals. Anything you’re able to get added there is just gravy.
Golden Tate – WR24
Tate has been a reliable, high-volume PPR asset throughout his tenure in the Motor City, but sadly, he has surpassed the top of the mountain, and is working his way on down. It’s been confirmed that Kenny Golladay will be replacing Tate in two wide receiver sets and a volume hit is quite a large problem for a volume reliant player who is now on the wrong side of 30 years of age.
His market will steadily decline as the 2018 season progresses and it’s best to get out from under him sooner than later. A fantastic pivot in the same age range is Doug Baldwin if you can add a nice sweetener. Other players to add assets to Tate to try to acquire are T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon.
Calvin Ridley – WR30
This sell is simply a matter of player evaluation and situation for me. So long as All-Pro stud Julio Jones is present, any even potential breakout opportunity for Ridley will be snuffed. The departure of Julio is far from within sight and Ridley will play (at best) second fiddle until then.
Despite coming from the SEC, there is very much a question of how well Ridley’s game will transfer to the NFL level. He certainly runs good, quick and crisp routes, but that’s not going to be his issue. Quite frankly, he’s very small and very weak for an NFL wide receiver. He will have to show he will not be bullied at the line and throughout routes before I can consider him in the conversation of a mid WR4, let alone the mid WR3 he’s being drafted as.
Combine his situation of playing in Julio’s shadow with his physical weakness concerns and the result is an investment whose payoff is likely to come between slow and never. No matter what the narrative surrounding DeVante Parker is this week, he will be receiving a volume roll this season, and he’s only two years older than Ridley. You read that correctly, Ridley is already 23 years old and ancient in rookie years. Hold at your own risk.
- Eight Players to Sell in Dynasty on the Eve of the 2018 Season - September 4, 2018
- Eight Players to Buy in Dynasty on the Eve of the 2018 Season - September 1, 2018
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Cleveland Browns - July 11, 2018