20/20: Christian Kirk

Justin Bales Posted On February 23, 2018

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we will be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2018 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – Christian Kirk

2.) College – Texas A&M

3.) Height/Weight – 5’11”, 200 lbs.

4.) Birth date – November 18, 1996 (21 years old)

5.) Class – Junior

6.) Basic college stats – Kirk started as a true freshman for Texas A&M, recording an 80-1,009-7 line in 13 games. He posted similar numbers his sophomore season, recording an 83-928-9 line in 13 games, once again. His receptions and yards dropped his junior season, but he saw a huge uptick in touchdown rate in 13 games. During that season, he recorded only 71 receptions for 919 yards and 10 touchdowns. Overall, he needed 39 games to total 234 receptions for 2,856 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also recorded 121 rushing yards on 21 carries throughout his collegiate career.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Kirk’s draft status is a bit up in the air at this point. Some scouts believe he will go in the first round, and there have been mock drafts with him going as high as eighth overall to the Chicago Bears. The most likely scenario is that Kirk is drafted late in the first round or early in the second round.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

8.) Current NFL comp – Golden Tate. Kirk is smaller in stature, similarly to Tate. Kirk is expected to perform well at the NFL Combine, but quicker than he is fast. He also focuses heavily on route running, which is arguably Tate’s best attribute. Tate has found success as an outside receiver in the NFL, but he has down his best work in the slot. Some believe Kirk can handle himself on the outside, but he has the build and skill set of a pure slot receiver.

9.) Best possible destination – Chicago Bears. The Bears have a blooming offense, as they are loaded with young potential, specifically in their quarterback – Mitchell Trubisky. Chicago also only has a few wide receivers on their roster, and none that are sure-fire stars. Kevin White and Cameron Meredith are the best two options, but they are both coming off major injuries. Kirk would immediately be inserted as a safe option for Trubisky in the slot. It also helps that Matt Nagy will be running the offense, and he has found plenty of success with his players in Kansas City.

10.) Worst possible destination – Buffalo Bills. The Bills have taken some of the most skilled wide receivers in the NFL and placed them in fantasy purgatory. Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, and Robert Woods are receivers that have struggled in Buffalo but looked outstanding on other teams. Buffalo is now in the business for another receiver, who would struggle to crack the pecking order early in his career. Benjamin is their top option, while Zay Jones is locked into a questionable role for next season. They also have Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy are also being utilized heavily in the passing game. Buffalo is not a team that throws the ball enough for all of these players to have fantasy value, and Kirk would likely fall somewhere in the middle of the group.

11.) Best current skill – Quickness. Kirk is a smaller receiver who has found so much success in the slot because of his quickness. He is arguably the quickest player in and out of his breaks in this draft, and studies have shown that dominant receivers tend to possess quickness over speed. While this is a debate that will likely go on until the end of time, it is impossible to argue that quickness isn’t a necessary trait for a slot receiver. His quickness helps add to his route running, as linebackers and safeties tend to struggle when Kirk makes multiple cuts in his routes.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Catch radius. Kirk is good at making hand catches, so please do not get this confused with that. His catch radius is slightly small for a number of reasons. He is a smaller target, obviously making his catch radius smaller than a significantly bigger receiver. He also struggles to catch balls thrown away from his body. Keep in mind, he does not always make body catches, he simply needs the ball thrown near his frame. If he wants to find success in the NFL, he will need to learn to catch passes that are not perfect throws directly at him.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – Kirk’s ADP in the DLF February Rookie Mock Drafts was 10.2. He was selected between 4 and 13 in every mock draft. His ADP currently sits between Rashaad Penny and Kerryon Johnson. Kirk is being selected as the fourth overall wide receiver, behind Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, and James Washington.

14.) Projected dynasty value – Kirk’s dynasty value is likely a bit lower right now than it will be come most rookie drafts. Kirk is expected to shine at the NFL Combine, as he is going to flash tremendous quickness to go along with what scouts believe will be “better than expected” speed. He could also see his value skyrocket if he is selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Slot receivers are beginning to have more and more success in the NFL, suggesting Kirk is not going to fly under the radar this off-season.

15.) Bowl game success – Some players simply cannot play on the big stage, but that seems to be when Kirk excels. Texas A&M was bowl eligible in each of Kirk’s three seasons, allowing him to total 29 receptions for 359 yards and 4 touchdowns in those three games. Overall, 12.4% of his receptions, 12.6% of receiving yards, and 15.4% of receiving touchdowns came in only three Bowl games.

16.) Return value – Kirk is seen as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the NFL draft, but he is also one of the best return man prospects. He averaged 21.3 yards per kick return, while needing only 44 returns to record a touchdown. Kirk’s best value comes as a punt returner, though, as he averaged 22.0 yards per punt return throughout his career. He also recorded a touchdown on 16.2% of his punt returns (six touchdowns on 37 punt returns).

17.) Coming to Seattle? – There have been rumors swirling around that the Seattle Seahawks are enamored with Kirk. They see him as a difference-maker on an offense lacking dominant receivers outside of Doug Baldwin. This is a bit of an odd pairing, though, as Baldwin is locked into the slot role, and Kirk projects best as a slot receiver. Still, he has proven that he can find success on the outside at Texas A&M, and Seattle has the type of offense that can feature Kirk in a major role early in his career.

18.) Coming Home? – There have not been any rumors connecting Kirk to the Arizona Cardinals at this point, but it would make sense. Larry Fitzgerald is nearing the end of his career, while Arizona has very little talent locked up behind him. Kirk is from Scottsdale, Arizona, and it is always nice to see a player return home. This is somewhat of a stretch, but it is fun to consider a feel good story, right?

19.) Better than advertised? – Kirk enjoyed a great season, but had a lot working against him in 2017. His two quarterbacks, Kellen Mond and Nick Starkel, combined for a 57.5% completion percentage. This would have ranked T-73rd in the NCAA with Tanner Lee. Starkel was the better of the duo, recording a 60.9% completion percentage. He had five games with 20+ pass attempts last season, and Kirk was able to thrive with his efficiency. In those five games, Kirk averaged a 7.4/105.2/1.0 line. Over a 13 game season, his line would extrapolate into 96 receptions for 1,368 yards and 13 touchdowns. Last season, 25 quarterbacks in the NFL had a completion percentage over 60%, suggesting he will see boosted efficiency regardless of where he is drafted.

20.) Steve Smith’s praise – Former NFL star wide receiver Steven Smith showered Kirk with praise while reviewing him as a player. Smith suggested that Kirk has the physical ability to play anywhere on the field, including quarterback. There are some people that believe this was Smith’s way to stating that he believes Kirk is the best wide receiver in this class. While it’s far from certain what Smith was implying, it is fun to see such an elite receiver praise a young kid in such a way.

[/am4show]