Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Lil’Jordan Humphrey, WR of Texas. You can also check out all of our NFL Draft Prospect articles here. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
Statistics taken from sports-reference.com.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey’s early collegiate numbers are far from impressive, as he was used sparingly during his freshman campaign. He saw a new role as a sophomore, ranking second on the Texas team in receptions and receiving yards. Even with his uptick in snaps, he was still firmly behind Collin Johnson in the pecking order.
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That wasn’t the case for Humphrey during his junior season, as he led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Overall, he recorded 27.7% of the team’s receptions, 32.5% of the yards, and 32.1% of the TDs. He saw substantial growth in each of his three collegiate seasons, specifically in his percentages.
Humphrey was a high school running back who moved to wide receiver at Texas. He has fluid hips for his size, which allows him to often get leverage on defenders, specifically on out-breaking routes.
Humphrey possesses strong hands, consistently making contested catches over defenders. He has flashed enough quickness to be utilized out of the slot, allowing him to take full advantage of his frame and has shown an ability to beat defenders with yards after the catch.
Being somewhat new to the receiver position, Humphrey has plenty to work on. His routes are far from polished, specifically his ability to find holes in zone coverage. He also lacks the speed necessary to play on the outside. On top of speed concerns, he lacks acceleration in his routes, generally playing at only one speed.
Humphrey’s skill-set are designed specifically for a slot receiver. He owns more than enough size to be a mismatch there, although he may need to add weight and move to tight end in the NFL. As long as he can add the proper weight, there’s no reason to believe he won’t find success at his new position if given a true chance.
According to MockDraftable, Humphrey’s profile doesn’t feature many high-end comparable wide receivers. He compares most to Jarrett Hicks, who ended up going undrafted. Of his top ten comparisons, Keenan Allen is far and away the most successful. With that being said, Allen struggled with the 40-yard dash, but failed to test in other aspects. This is more or less a comparison of two physically gifted receivers who have struggled with speed.
The only elite aspect of Humphrey’s game is his size, as he ranked in the 88th percentile in height. He also ranked in the 75th percentile in wingspan. His hand size, arm length, and weight are all in the 68th percentile or higher.
Humphrey struggled to produce at the NFL Scouting Combine and his Pro Day. He ranked outside of the 50th percentile in every category, including the bench press, 20-yard shuttle, three-cone drill, broad jump, vertical jump, and 40-yard yard dash. The main problem was his 40-yard dash, as he posted only a 4.75-second time, which ranked in only the second percentile. For what it’s worth, slower receivers with size have found success in the NFL, and Humphrey could find a similar path in the slot.
Humphrey has struggled throughout the pre-draft process, and that shows in his ADP. His current ADP in rookie drafts is 48, meaning he’s essentially free at this point. He is also basically free in dynasty startups, featuring an ADP of only 240. Unless he’s drafted into an elite spot, Humphrey will stay this cheap throughout the entire off-season.
Humphrey is a boom-or-bust prospect for a cheap price tag. He doesn’t possess the speed or pure athleticism to success in the NFL, but he has the ability to make up for that with quickness and size in the slot. A position change would be a welcome sight if he’s able to comfortably add weight without sacrificing his limited speed.
This is a deep wide receiver class with a few players who could potentially be drafted in the first round. Humphrey isn’t in that conversation, but he could potentially be selected on Day Three. If he’s drafted into the right situation, he could carve out a career in the NFL, but that’s far from a guarantee.
Humphrey strictly makes a high upside option at the end of rookie drafts, but he shouldn’t be taken with any confidence of production for this season.
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