DLF Dynasty Podcast Recap: 2013 Rookie Re-Draft

If you’ve listened to recent episodes of the DLF Dynasty Podcast, and I hope you have, you’ve heard me, Dan Meylor and Matt Price revisit and re-draft recent rookie classes. We began with a plan to look back at the draft history of the past five seasons of rookies, hoping to glean some information that could be valuable to ourselves and our listeners, both related to specific players that have made up the respective classes, as well as general rookie draft strategy that could be applied to the incoming class of 2018.

I’ve enjoyed the discussion and learning from Matt and Dan, but the best part, as is usually the case, has been the drafts. We decided to hold a one round re-draft of the specific rookie class to cap off each episode. Those drafted players will later be combined across the past five draft classes to form a full fantasy team and then we will determine who built the best roster.

We are drafting based on a typical PPR scoring format with multiple flex spots, including the chance to start up to two quarterbacks through a super-flex spot. In case you’ve never played in a super-flex league, this massively changes the value of the quarterback position. We also chose to draft as if we were building a team going forward from right now, rather than looking back at what players have accomplished in recent seasons.

Before I recap our 2013 rookie re-draft, let’s look back at the first two rounds of that season’s rookie draft ADP, thanks to data from MyFantasyLeague.

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And finally, here are the draft results. I was lucky enough to draw the top pick in the draft, followed by Matt and then Dan. We used a snake format with each group of three picks.

1.01 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

Original Rookie ADP- 5.9

Houston’s star receiver has risen to be not only the top of his respective rookie class but near the top of overall dynasty rankings after another impressive season, finishing as the WR2 overall. Paired with a young quarterback for years to come, there is little not to like about Hopkins, who is now my top overall dynasty player, so it was an easy choice to kick off this draft.

1.02 – Keenan Allen, WR LAC

Original Rookie ADP- 12.8

Allen was a little overlooked entering the league after missing some time in his final college season. Some dynasty players were able to take advantage as he fell to the late first round range in many drafts, but in this draft, Matt surprised and grabbed Allen with the second overall pick. Considering some of the uncertainty surrounding other players, this pick actually makes a lot of sense.

1.03 – Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

Original Rookie ADP- 3.3

After the surprise of the Allen selection, Dan made the easy choice to grab Bell, arguably the top running back in fantasy football. Bell does have some questions after multiple injuries and suspensions and now uncertainty about where he’ll play in 2018. Bell recently threatened to sit out or even retire if the Steelers assign him the Franchise Tag. Regardless, this was a slam dunk pick in the third spot.

2.01 – Travis Kelce, TE KC

Original Rookie ADP- 25.9

The next pick was another easy one as Chiefs tight end Kelce has separated himself from the pack as the TE2 in dynasty, behind only Rob Gronkowski. Kelce now has back-to-back seasons as the TE1 in fantasy PPR leagues. After missing the majority of his rookie season with an injury, Kelce has exploded as one of the league’s best. Considering we are making these picks with a mindset of building teams, filling the tight end spot this early was a smart move.

2.02 – Zach Ertz, TE PHI

Original Rookie ADP- 23.9

Matt followed the trend and selected another tight end who enjoyed a huge season, despite missing some time with injuries. Ertz has improved each season and looks like a go-to option for quarterback Carson Wentz for the foreseeable future. Considering Ertz was an early second-rounder for the Eagles, while Kelce was chosen in the early third-round, it seems like a mistake that dynasty players let them fall so far back in 2013.

2.03 – Robert Woods, WR LAR

Original Rookie ADP- 16

As a standout for USC, Woods was firmly on the radar for dynasty players for years before he entered the league, but a diminished role in his final college season caused him to fall in both the NFL Draft and rookie drafts. In his four years with the Bills, Woods could never establish himself as a valuable fantasy asset, but that quickly changed this season as he changed coasts, joining the Rams. Although Woods dealt with a minor injury that cost him some game time late in the season, he still established himself as the top option for young quarterback Jared Goff. This was enough to jump him up dynasty rankings and made him my clear pick at this mid-point of the draft.

3.01 – Chris Thompson, RB WAS

Original Rookie ADP- 49.8

Although my co-hosts disagreed, I saw a clear tier gap from the top six to this next group of players, but I ultimately decided to draft the Redskins pass-catching back Thompson, who was enjoying a breakout season before a broken leg ended his season. Not much went right for the Washington offense this season, but Thompson was a bright spot. If he can prove he’s fully recovered from his injury, he’ll be a value again in 2018.

3.02 – Theo Riddick, RB DET

Original Rookie ADP- 48.7

Another pass-catching back came off the board next as Matt added the Detroit Lion to his team. This was the first pick that we had some real disagreement on, as Dan and I did not value Riddick among our top 12 players in this class. Riddick has been among the top 26 fantasy backs for the past three seasons and although the Lions are expected to make changes to their backfield, he is likely to retain his role. Back in 2013, Riddick was almost completely off the radar as a receiver turned running back during his time at Notre Dame.

3.03 – Jordan Reed, TE WAS

Original Rookie ADP- 36.3

In a typical rookie draft, there won’t be a single tight end chosen in the first round, but in this look back, Reed is the third from his position among the top nine picks. If not for the constant injuries that have plagued Reed, he might have been a top-five pick in this exercise. Instead, Reed faces questions about the remainder of his career and this selection is a high floor, low ceiling variety for Dan.

4.01 – C.J. Anderson, RB DEN

Original Rookie ADP- N/A

It was a disappointing season for Broncos running back Anderson, but he still finished as RB18. While it seems that Denver might be ready to go in a different direction, they are a team with a lot of needs to fill. That could lead to Anderson holding his job for another season. Anderson was an undrafted free agent in 2013 and essentially an unknown who was not drafted at all. Instead, dynasty players were chasing another Broncos back, Montee Ball, who was a top-five pick in most drafts.

4.02 – Spencer Ware, RB KC

Original Rookie ADP- 48.7

Despite some success at a big-time SEC school, LSU, Ware entered the league with little fanfare. A sixth-rounder for Seattle, Ware barely saw the field for the Seahawks before they cut him and he sat out all of the 2014 season. Ware landed in Kansas City and took advantage of an injury to Jamaal Charles. He totaled over 1,300 yards in 2016, but the arrival of rookie Kareem Hunt paired with his own season-ending injury has decimated his dynasty value.

4.03 – Rex Burkhead, RB NE

Original Rookie ADP- 48.9

I’m sure you don’t even recall Burkhead as a member of the 2013 class. The Bengals drafted him in the sixth-round that year after spending an earlier pick on Giovani Bernard. In Burkhead’s first three season in Cincinnati, playing behind Bernard and Jeremy Hill, he touched the ball just 30 total times. With injuries ahead of him, Bernard played an increased role in 2016 and the Patriots took notice, signing him away last off-season. Although he’s dealt with injury concerns of his own this season, I still deemed him worthy of the final pick of the round. A free agent this off-season, Burkhead likely needs to remain with the Patriots to retain his dynasty value.

Best of the Rest

Even in a relatively shallow draft, there are still dynasty relevant players that were not selected among the top 12 in the first round.

Tavon Austin, WR LAR

The top overall pick according to ADP has been a massive bust, yet remains on dynasty rosters in most leagues. Even the arrival of new head coach Sean McVay and one of the top-scoring offenses in the league couldn’t cure Austin’s woes.

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

A hot commodity after his impressive rookie season, things went downhill quickly as the Bengals added Jeremy Hill, and eventually Joe Mixon, to their backfield. Bernard did play well down the stretch and Mixon is no sure thing. He’s currently undervalued and I am starting to think he would’ve been a better pick than Burkhead at the end of the round.

Eddie Lacy, RB SEA

Another former top three dynasty back, Lacy flopped in Seattle and may not be long for the league. He somehow still carries some name value in deep leagues, but really belongs on waiver wires.

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

In a very similar story to Reed of the Redskins, Eifert’s promising career has been taken off-track due to injuries. Coming off back season that ended his season, Eifert will be a free agent and will need to prove he can stay on the field to recoup his dynasty value.

Mike Gillislee, RB NE

One of the hottest names last off-season was Gillislee after he was signed by the Patriots. He ended up being one of the major busts of the 2017 season and could be cut by New England. He’s barely worth a dynasty stash.

Latavius Murray, RB MIN

After a solid career with the Raiders, Murray played well after taking over for an injured Dalvin Cook. Surprisingly, Murray has finished as a top 25 fantasy back in each of the past three seasons. With a player-friendly contract, Murray is a candidate to be cut this off-season and is worth targeting until we see where he lands.

Kenny Stills, WR MIA

The ultimate deep threat during his time with the Saints and Dolphins, Stills has scored well, finishing and WR46 and WR28 I the past two seasons, but his week-to-week numbers have been erratic, hurting his dynasty value.

Marquise Goodwin, WR SF

Thanks to the arrival of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers receiver Marquise Goodwin made a late-season fantasy impact, finishing as the WR8 from weeks 13 through 17 after the former Patriot took over as the starter. Goodwin ended the season with a nasty concussion and while the Niners are expected to add to their receiver corps, Goodwin will be an undervalued player this off-season.

Brice Butler, WR DAL

A free agent this off-season, Butler recently said he would be leaving the Cowboys unless he is given a starting job. Butler has been impressive in limited action, but he’s been blocked by another class of 2013 receiver, Terrance Williams.

Here’s a quick look at our teams through one draft, with more to come for the 2014-2017 classes. Which team do you like best?

This is just the first edition of a multi-part series in which I will review the results of each rookie re-draft through the class of 2017. Check back soon for a look at the stacked class of 2014.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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