Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Accountability Corner

As something new, I want to add some accountability to my calls that I make each week in this column. I don’t have a good way of defining whether a player’s value truly went up or down in a given week yet, so the results I am listing are based on my personal opinion. For example, Chester Rogers didn’t produce much, but he did get 93% of the snaps. I’m calling it a wash at value even.

Total hit percent for Week 14: 63.3%

EARLY GAMES

ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON

With Adrian Peterson on injured reserve now, Kerywnn Williams will get extended play. While I question his dynasty value as a Cardinal, he is young enough to impress another team and latch on there eventually. So far so good, and he can turn the opportunity into more.

Josh Doctson has really been getting meaningful targets lately, and he’s converting a lot of them. The ones he doesn’t convert are often a difficult play to make, and that shows the building trust between him and Kirk Cousins. Regardless of who is quarterbacking next year, his value is on the rise.

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BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND

How about this Alex Collins guy? The team simply looks different with him being featured, and in a good way. The more that happens, the more solidified his long term role and value will become. Cleveland isn’t a place where we expect him to suddenly slow down.

Isaiah Crowell just might be benefitting from Josh Gordon’s return. He exploded last week and it could well be a result of defenses fearing the receiving weapons for a change. Let’s see if that becomes a trend or if Crowell just busted out for one game.

MIAMI AT BUFFALO

A featured role for Kenyan Drake? No problem, this kid is electric. Now we just want to see the trend continue and his value will keep trending upward. Buffalo isn’t likely to slow him down, so it could be alarming if they manage to.

The Dolphins aren’t great against tight ends, and Charles Clay hasn’t done much since returning from injury. With Tyrod Taylor expected back, is this the week he becomes the featured receiver again and gets a value bump?

GREEN BAY AT CAROLINA

This is it! Jordy Nelson gets Aaron Rodgers back and it couldn’t happen too soon. Time to find out if his woes for this mid-season were related to him losing a step or if they can be tied to losing Aaron Rodgers to injury. I would bail quickly if you’ve been holding him and he doesn’t return to scoring form in a week or two.

This game has two playoff caliber teams, and big time players do well when they need to. That’s what Devin Funchess is looking at in this game. I want to see if he has the clutch factor after taking over the leading role this season. He has yet to have a defining moment on a big stage in the NFL.

CINCINNATI AT MINNESOTA

So far so good for Giovani Bernard through one week of a featured role. Now he gets to face a very tough Vikings front. Does he continue to roll or does he get bottled up? His value could move in either direction.

Latavius Murray was looking pretty good over the past month, until the Panthers swallowed him whole and destroyed his productivity. The Bengals are a much softer match up, so does he rebound? On a playoff team, being reliable is a big deal and could mean good things for him next year as Dalvin Cook tries to pre-injury form.

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville is stout on the outside, and Stephen Anderson has 18 targets over the past two weeks. Ryan Griffin and CJ Fiedorowicz don’t appear to be paragons of health, so Anderson may be getting a long term look starting immediately. Can he show up in a game with a playoff team this week?

Extrapolate Dede Westbrook’s first four games as a pro across a full season, and we’re looking at an 80 catch, four touchdown monster on over 130 targets. Sign me up. That’s nuts considering he just put up stats against Seattle. It’s also nuts considering Blake Bortles is his quarterback and this team is leaning on the run and its defense.

NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ORLEANS

Despite getting zero targets, rookie Chad Hansen saw significant playing time last week. While I typically like my rookie receivers to be a little more productive throughout the season, I’m not above checking out guys who make a surge late in the season. What we want to see is him become actively involved in the game plan if he is to gain any value.

Heading into the final stretch of the 2017 season, Drew Brees’ statistical output has been less of a factor in his team’s success. This looks like a trend likely to continue through the rest of his career. The team around him has a solid defense and is dominating in the run game. This isn’t a bad thing for him as a quarterback, but it is a bad thing for him as your fantasy quarterback. Having said that, the Jets are great against the run. Maybe we get a glimpse of what Drew’s ceiling is this week.

PHILADELPHIA AT NEW YORK GIANTS

Jay Ajayi has been pretty successful as an Eagle, but less successful as your fantasy running back for most of those weeks. The Giants are a woeful football team this year, capable of helping superstar running backs like Rod Smith hit their ceiling. This is a ceiling opportunity heading into the playoffs for a team that just lost its star quarterback. It’s time to see how much the team is comfortable putting on him.

This week, will Wayne Gallman continue to look like the Giants running back to own? Does it matter? None of them are amassing much more than flex-worthy output. At the moment, though, he does look like the guy with the most theoretical value. The question is does he convince the team they don’t need to invest in the position again this off-season.

LATE GAMES

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE

Cooper Kupp exploded onto the scene with the Robert Woods injury. So much so, that now DraftKings even has Kupp listed as more expensive than Woods for this week. That’s a great indicator of the inflection point we are at for this young player. Does he take the reins and continue to look like the guy to own, or does Woods take that title back?

Something is a-changing in Seattle. I’ve written up Paul Richardson in the past due to his enormous weekly ceiling, and predicting it would lead to more involvement. I cooled off on him after his involvement waned. Now, though, he actually has that involvement. Over the past month, this dude has increased snap percentage each week, up to 93.5% in week 14. He is also getting nearly seven targets per game over that stretch. His production doesn’t match the involvement, and it might just catch up.

NEW ENGLAND AT PITTSBURGH

Five touchdowns in three weeks is kind of a lot. Rex Burkhead is getting consistent usage in premium field position and situations. My question is does that continue? If so his value still isn’t where it needs to be. This team looks poised to move to a more running back-heavy approach at Tom Brady plays out the twilight of his career.

Whoa, what? Jesse James just got 12 targets last week. While that is obviously a ceiling on a team with all-stars, we want to see if it increases his overall week to week involvement in the offense. Even a steady four or five targets per week would merit an increase for him.

TENNESSEE AT SAN FRANCISCO

Coming into this season, Marcus Mariota was a hot commodity in the dynasty quarterback market. He cooled off significantly since then, and really hit his non-injury driven floor last week with a 3.5 fantasy point performance. He is in danger of moving into the dynasty hellscape where Alex Smith used to reside: talented enough to own, but never be used. Let’s hope for a bounceback against the 49ers.

His value won’t scream up the charts or anything, but Garrett Celek is looking like the tight end to own in San Francisco with Jimmy G under center. George Kittle was a nice sleeper and presented some value earlier this season. It remains to be seen if that will come to fruition down the road, but for now it looks like Celek is our man.

SUNDAY NIGHT

DALLAS AT OAKLAND

All the mean things I said about Dak Prescott after he struggled without Ezekiel Elliot? Yeah, I still meant them. However, he has grown as a quarterback due to this adversity. He is starting to rally the team behind him and produce results despite his team’s holes. This growth will only be good for him in the long run, and he gets a soft Raiders defense this week to slice through like butter.

Derek Carr truly hasn’t done himself any favors this season as a fantasy asset. While other young quarterbacks are clearly ascending, he is moving in the opposite direction. This is concerning considering his defense is made of unpasteurized cheese. He really needs to step up on a big stage like Sunday Night Football to turn his perception around.

MONDAY NIGHT

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY

As of writing, Tevin Coleman looks extremely doubtful as he hasn’t cleared concussion protocol. Tampa Bay is giving up tons of fantasy production to opponents, and it couldn’t come at a better time of year for Devonta Freeman owners. Look for him to be the workhorse and carry the load in a game with huge playoff implications for the Falcons.

Cameron Brate keeps sliding, and OJ Howard keeps moving up. Both in terms of playing time and opportunity, it looks like the curtains are finally falling on Brate’s time as a fantasy starter while in a Buccaneer uniform. Jameis Winston has a penchant for throwing to tight ends throughout his football career, so the upside for Howard is immense and he will begin capitalizing on it quickly.

RECAP

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Trevor Bucher

Writer at Dynasty League Football

Trevor is a Florida State and Ball State alumnus with degrees in Asian Studies and History. He forecasts service part demand for the auto industry and moonlights as a dynasty aficionado. His takes on fantasy are typically rooted in statistics, history, and metrics, but he is open to the occasional gut feeling. You can follow him @evorzan for tweets about football and the occasional video game or anime reference.

Latest posts by Trevor Bucher (see all)

• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017