Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Accountability Corner

As something new, I want to add some accountability to my calls that I make each week in this column. I don’t have a good way of defining whether a player’s value truly went up or down in a given week yet, so the results I am listing are based on my personal opinion. For example, Seth Roberts didn’t explode in his game, but he didn’t face plant with the opportunity either. I’m still giving him an up and the benefit of the doubt.

Total hit percent for Week 13: 63.3%

EARLY GAMES

INDIANAPOLIS AT BUFFALO

Over the past three weeks, Chester Rogers has averaged an over 70% snap rate and gotten 16 targets. Throw in that Donte Moncrief was playing, but now he is injured, and there is real opportunity here. Moncrief quietly hasn’t been very good as a pro despite all of his physical gifts and opportunity. There is a real chance that Rogers overtakes him permanently with some production.

Who is getting the most targets in the Bills passing game out of the backfield the past three weeks? Travaris Cadet, that’s who. LeSean McCoy has 10 targets to Cadet’s 14. At Cadet’s current value, that is some pretty nice production he is getting opportunity for. We know Shady won’t be great forever, so it will continue to be important to monitor how his backup is doing.

MINNESOTA AT CAROLINA

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The Vikings are a legitimate playoff team. Case Keenum has led them there. Regardless of his future with the Vikings, he has helped his value this season. Moving forward, each game he continues to start can only be a boon to his future value and ability to find a starting role with a team.

Devin Funchess is on a roll lately, and Xavier Rhodes is an elite cornerback. This will be a fun matchup to watch. If Funchess comes out with solid production while lined up against Rhodes, sign me up for his future value. It won’t really hurt Funchess’ value if he does poorly against a great CB, so there is only value upside here.

CHICAGO AT CINCINNATI

Hi-ho, hi-ho, how low can Jordan (Hi-)Howard go? This is another good matchup, so his inconsistent production record will probably lead to another bad day when he should be primed for a good one. Howard is a true pivot each week until further notice. His lack of a meaningful production floor is eviscerating his value, in my opinion.

It’s been a very long time since Giovani Bernard got enough touches to have a meaningful fantasy day that was foreseeable. This week could be that week, and with rookie Joe Mixon having mixed results, I want to see what Bernard has left in the tank. This game could be a big factor in his future role for the Bengals.

GREEN BAY AT CLEVELAND

Two weeks in a row yielded 20+ point fantasy games for Jamaal Williams. That’s kind of good. Cleveland is not kind of good. This looks like an opportunity for Williams to have a third great outing in a row, and that kind of consistency will go a long way towards solidifying a future role and workload floor for him.

Here is an impact from Josh Gordon’s return: Corey Coleman was averaging eight targets per game this season. Then Gordon returned, and he got four targets. Perhaps even more importantly, he caught none of them. While Gordon’s pendulum swings one way, Coleman’s appears to be swinging decidedly in the opposite direction.

DALLAS AT NEW YORK GIANTS

Death, taxes, and Jason Witten against the Giants. Witten has been good, but less consistent this season. After two weeks in the “OK” category, I’m thinking he goes for a third week in a row of decent production. That should give him some momentum heading into 2018. I expect this to help buoy his value through another year.

Eli Manning is back in for the Giants this week. I’m not sure if that helps or hurts Evan Engram, who was inconsistent with Manning for the past month. One guy that really has built something with Manning over the past while is Sterling Shepard, and I am looking at that connection today for a value jump.

DETROIT AT TAMPA BAY

This is very reactionary of me, but Tion Green looked good when he got touches last week. No one in the Detroit backfield has instilled fear in opposing defenses this season. His role is certainly questionable moving forward, but his value could grow substantially if he turns in more good performances when given opportunity.

Cameron Brate is at a true pivot point. His role has been diminishing, as he played fewer snaps last week than he had the week before, which was lower than it had been previously. On the flip side, he turned two targets into 39 yards and two touchdowns. So, does that performance earn him more playing time again? Or does he keep sliding?

SAN FRANCISCO AT HOUSTON

Through week nine, Trent Taylor’s highest yards per reception in a game was 11. In the two weeks since Jimmy Garoppolo started taking snaps, he has had 17.5 and 15.33 yards per reception. Adding on, he got six targets last week, and this is a situation to monitor. Taylor may have some solid rapport with the new quarterback building.

Andre Ellington changed teams this season, and it may have been a good thing. Last week he got 56 yards on five receptions on six targets. That’s flex-worthy production for a guy who previously had about no value. With the team’s backfield roles a question mark moving forward with Lamar Miller less effective than needed and D’Onta Foreman injured, keep an eye to see if Ellington holds the passing work.

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY

With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree out, Johnny Holton screamed onto the scene with seven targets and a touchdown. He didn’t light the world on fire, but he is worth monitoring moving forward. Has he earned more snaps? What role does he play? Does the team invest in wide receiver this off-season, or are they liking their depth as a vote of confidence in him?

Which Alex Smith is the real one? He has been an MVP caliber quarterback at times this season, but has also been downright dreadful at other times. He is a true pivot down the stretch with Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings.

TENNESSEE AT ARIZONA

In terms of efficiency, DeMarco Murray has been pretty bad for the past few months. Derrick Henry, meanwhile, has been pretty good. Does this disparity in effectiveness begin to lead to a larger opportunity for Henry? He looks ready to carry a larger load, and the only thing holding his value back is opportunity.

Blaine Gabbert continues to be the guy to watch for a value shift that is meaningful. The top receiving and running back roles are locked up for 2018, but quarterback is in question. Does the team stick with Gabbert or go back to Carson Palmer? Only Gabbert’s play can decide.

LATE GAMES

NEW YORK JETS AT DENVER

It’s been some time since Austin Seferian-Jenkins has either gotten a write up from me, or put up meaningful fantasy output. This is the week that changes, as the Broncos are terrible against tight ends. This week, he reminds us why we loved him earlier this season.

Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian has probably the best first name that anyone can have. He was a revelation the past year or so with his play relative to his draft pedigree. That time appears to be over, as this offense is anemic with him leading it. He is hurting his value long-term as teams will now be hesitant to give him a shot.

WASHINGTON AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

How does locking down the starting running back role for 2018 sound? Semaje Perine is in the process of doing just that with his play. The Chargers are giving up lots of fantasy production to running backs, and Perine is pretty much it for Washington right now.

Hunter Henry continues his ascent as he has looked like a monster the past few weeks. Does he maintain this level of play and keep moving up the ranks? Long term consistency is the thing holding him back at this point, so a down week will put a hamper on his growth in value.

SEATTLE AT JACKSONVILLE

Opportunity breeds value in fantasy football, and Mike Davis is the latest running back to get some value in Seattle this season. We want to see what he can do with it, how long it lasts, etc. Can he avoid injury behind a poor offensive line, or will he fall victim like the rest?

Shrugging off his fantasy point slump against the Colts, Leonard Fournette was still inefficient. Now he goes up against a much better defense. Does he put up a clunker in this spot and move down, or rebound and move up?

PHILADELPHIA AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

Trey Burton holds some value as Zach Ertz’ backup. He has proven successful when deployed, and Ertz is questionable. If he gets the go again this week, watch for him to become of the league’s rare backup tight ends with actual value worth pursuing.

Cooper Kupp is averaging nearly eight targets a game the past four weeks. He’s catching a good percentage of those and moving the chains consistently. Turns out, he is exactly what we thought he could be for the Rams as a rookie. His future continues to look brighter with each passing week as his rapport with Jared Goff continues to grow.

SUNDAY NIGHT

BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH

Another game, and another week where Alex Collins looks like the running back of the present and perhaps future for the Ravens. Now consistently involved in both the running and passing games, he is a big part of this team’s winning ways at present. This figures to be a big stage with high stakes, so it will be important to see how he can play in the clutch.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster out again, Martavis Bryant has another week where proving his worth to the team is necessary. It is hard to say if his value will move up or down, so I consider him a True Pivot. If he does well, his future with the Steelers is still murky; however, they could look to trade him this off-season, where his value could rise.

MONDAY NIGHT

NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI

What is Dwayne Allen’s ceiling in New England? We figure to see it Monday night, as Miami is bad against tight ends and Rob Gronkowski is out. Considering how often Gronk misses action, this is another of the rare backup tight end situations with monitoring. If Allen can prove valuable to New England, he instantly has more value moving forward.

Kenny Stills has been consistently good this season, which is a weird thing to say about a guy who was previously known for his inconsistency. He looks like the wide receiver to own behind Jarvis Landry in Miami, having usurped DeVante Parker’s role and production. Against the Patriots, look for that to continue.

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Trevor Bucher

Writer at Dynasty League Football

Trevor is a Florida State and Ball State alumnus with degrees in Asian Studies and History. He forecasts service part demand for the auto industry and moonlights as a dynasty aficionado. His takes on fantasy are typically rooted in statistics, history, and metrics, but he is open to the occasional gut feeling. You can follow him @evorzan for tweets about football and the occasional video game or anime reference.

Latest posts by Trevor Bucher (see all)

• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
• Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017