Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 12 Dynasty Value

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

Accountability Corner

As something new, I want to add some accountability to my calls that I make each week in this column. I don’t have a good way of defining whether a player’s value truly went up or down in a given week yet, so the results I am listing are based on my personal opinion. For example, Paul Richardson had a decent week, but I wrote him up as a value down due to inconsistency. I can’t in good conscience consider him a value up after a good game when I was expecting a bad one. It just proves his inconsistency.

Total hit percent for Week 11: 61.5%

EARLY GAMES

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA

Doug Martin has 112 carries for 3.06 yards per carry this season. He isn’t overly involved in the passing game, either, with just 15 targets on the season. This kind of output on the kind of workload he is getting simply isn’t sustainable in the NFL. Jacquizz Rodgers has proven capable in the past, and it won’t take many more clunkers from Martin for the Buccaneers to look elsewhere.

This season, Julio Jones hasn’t been a fantasy monster. Chalk it up to whatever you wish, he isn’t currently the asset that he once was. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is giving up points to opposing wide receivers like no other team this season. We truly need to see a ceiling game here to justify his current valuation. I said the same thing against New England and he turned in his best performance of the season, and we need a repeat or he moves down.

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY

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The Bills have been a mess the past few weeks. A bright spot has been Zay Jones, which is great for him since he is a rookie. That could make him immune to turmoil in the coming off-season. At the same time, Kansas City is susceptible to wide receivers so he could keep rolling. I’m looking for consistency out of him to finish out his season with a nice value up.

By most any metric, Kareem Hunt is having a phenomenal rookie season. Having said that, he’s merely been consistently good lately, and not outstanding in any given week. The Bills have been torched by opposing running backs for the past month, and Hunt needs to take advantage. I’m looking for him to step up with a big week and ground out the Bills.

CAROLINA AT NEW YORK JETS

A lot has changed for the Panthers since Greg Olsen last played. Kelvin Benjamin is no longer around the receiving duties have been roughly split between Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey. Where does that leave Olsen? I don’t know, but we can find out together. His involvement and rapport with Cam Newton will be scrutinized today.

Robby Anderson wasn’t on the top of many people’s lists of Jets receivers this off-season, until Quincy Enunwa got injured. The season started and Jermaine Kearse looked like the man. Fast forward to mid-season, and Anderson looks like the guy to own. If he continues to show up for the Jets, he is carving out a long term role even with the return of Enunwa around the corner.

CHICAGO AT PHILADELPHIA

The past two weeks, rookie tight end Adam Shaheen has received six targets. He has also caught six balls. That’s not bad, when you add in a touchdown. Young quarterbacks often latch onto their tight end as a security blanket in the NFL, and when that happens the duo tends to have long term rapport. We could be seeing the beginning of a long term partnership with Mitchell Trubisky and Shaheen. That’s something to keep an eye on.

Running back situations are weird. Jay Ajayi looked like a bit of a plodder with the Dolphins, but now he looks explosive for the Eagles. Oddly enough, the Dolphins look more explosive also with his former backups now splitting work. Oh well, the point is the change of scenery is working for Ajayi. If his efficiency stays high his value should be moving up. Lower usage with higher production is what we’d like to see for him to have a longer career, given his knee issues.

CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI

Not a lot is going right for the Browns this year, which is nothing new. One exception has been that when Corey Coleman is healthy, he looks like a stud. While the matchup isn’t ideal, I want to see him come out of this game healthy and continuing his consistent production when healthy. If he checks the boxes, I’m moving him up some.

Another week another True Pivot designation for Joe Mixon. He has yet to put it all together as a pro, but his value has been buoyed by his involvement in the passing game and occasional touchdowns. Despite all of that, the Browns are a bad team and the Bengals should be using the run game to grind out the win. How involved Mixon is in that, and how well he performs, should be indicative of future value.

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS

Most warm blooded dynasty owners had Corey Davis ranked very highly coming into this season. Between injuries both to himself and to quarterback Marcus Mariota, it hasn’t come together for him this season. While the talent and opportunity are there, he has disappointed in terms of output. Going against that, the Colts aren’t stopping anyone with their defense. So, what does he do?

Does everyone remember when Donte Moncrief was creeping up into the early rounds of dynasty startup drafts? Those days are long gone. He is barely a part of this offense now and question marks surround Andrew Luck’s long term situation. Another down week here and his value will begin to fall through the floor.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND

Not that he will carry much long term value, but Matt Moore could get a nice value bump for the rest of the season if he shows nicely against the Patriots. He has an opportunity to usurp Jay Cutler atop the 2017 quarterback depth chart for the Dolphins. While that isn’t the most exciting of things, he could be valuable in a trade to someone who maybe owns Dak Prescott or Jameis Winston right now.

I’ve been writing about guys like Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and Evan Engram as worthy of being in the top tier of dynasty tight end rankings. Lost in the shuffle is that Rob Gronkowski is losing ground to them. Once in a tier of his own, he no longer holds that distinction. His points per game are down this year and he has failed to capitalize in tasty matchups. The Patriots are still rolling without him Gronking. That’s a bad thing for his value.

LATE GAMES

SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO

Sticking with tight ends, Jimmy Graham has been on a roll the past number of weeks – having racked up seven touchdowns since week five. This game may be more indicative of how far he has come than we may think at first glance. He did virtually nothing through the first two weeks, including a one catch for one yard performance against these same 49ers. Was that due to his role in the offense at the time, or due to the 49ers? If he does well here, I think he moves up. If they stifle him, maybe the opposite.

Extracting more data from the first game this year, Carlos Hyde rolled against the Seahawks to the tune of 8.27 yards per carry. He has been consistently good all season, and another game like that will be a nice boon to his value. Game script could play a heavy factor in the game, so it should be fun to watch what happens.

JACKSONVILLE AT ARIZONA

Dede Westbrook finally made his regular season debut last week, and did okay for his first game. I don’t see the other Jaguars having much opportunity for a value shift this week, so I’m just going to watch Dede. Continuing his current involvement should merit a value up.

Adrian Peterson with the Cardinals: two great games and three bad ones. Which Peterson do we see this week? The passing offense has a bad matchup against an elite Jaguars defense, so the fate of the Cardinals may well lie in the hands of Peterson. This is a good opportunity to evaluate whether he can carry an offense at this point in his career, or if he is a role player as a part of his offense.

DENVER AT OAKLAND

It’s the 2017 debut of Paxton Lynch! What can he do? The Raiders are giving up tons of points to opponents while their offense sputters. The Broncos defense is still fairly strong, so this is the perfect game script setup to see if he can control the football and play mistake free. The bonus is that he has upside from there, since the Raiders defense isn’t stopping anyone.

One weak spot for the Broncos defense is tight ends. The Dolphins have that same weak spot, and Jared Cook blew up against them for eight receptions on nine targets for 126 yards. I want to see him exploit this weakness to justify his current value, since he has had an up and down season.

NEW ORLEANS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

Another week, another pick your poison between the Saints running backs. For value purposes, I will continue to defer to Alvin Kamara since he is so young. I’ve said it before, but his value ceiling is huge and he is still moving up each week. He is definitely still the back to monitor as he could end up in the first or second round of startup drafts this off-season.

Quarterback Jared Goff has had an inconsistent fantasy season, but by and large has been good. The Saints defense has been stout but will be missing some key players in the secondary. Can Goff exploit the opportunity? He has a chance to solidify himself in the minds of dynasty owners if he can have a signature game against a top defense.

SUNDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY AT PITTSBURGH

I may have made a faux pas by not writing about Jordy Nelson sooner. His value is pretty much nothing for 2017 with Brett Hundley at quarterback, and Jordy isn’t getting any younger. Will he still have his mojo in his age 33 season when Aaron Rodgers returns? Lost production now can only hurt his value as uncertainty looms.

Last week, Ben Roethlisberger finally had a big game. He needed that after losing value this season due to so many low outputs. Can he string that together with another big primetime game? The weapons around him dictate that he maintains fantasy relevance, but he needs to string production together to get back to a trusted starter value.

MONDAY NIGHT

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE

I like to think of this game as “what can Lamar Miller do?” While the passing game has somehow been adequate under Tom Savage, that may not continue against Baltimore. At the same time, the team just lost D’onta Foreman who was beginning to come into his own at the running back position. That means all eyes should be on Miller the rest of this season. If he is a feature back, it will show. If not, the team may look elsewhere to fill that role next season.

The Ravens offense has been just one smidge above the level of a dumpster fire this season. I still consider that to be an indictment of Joe Flacco, who is fine if the team around him is good (thanks, Steve Smith and Ray Rice). The problem is that the team around him isn’t particularly good, and he isn’t good enough to lift them up. There are quite a few rookie quarterbacks I’d rather own than him, including the ones that aren’t doing well.

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Trevor Bucher

Writer at Dynasty League Football

Trevor is a Florida State and Ball State alumnus with degrees in Asian Studies and History. He forecasts service part demand for the auto industry and moonlights as a dynasty aficionado. His takes on fantasy are typically rooted in statistics, history, and metrics, but he is open to the occasional gut feeling. You can follow him @evorzan for tweets about football and the occasional video game or anime reference.

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