Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Six
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Miami at Atlanta
8.35 fantasy points per game. Jay Ajayi has had his fantasy output decimated by the Dolphins’ overall woes at playing football. Add in that he is having consistent issues with his knee and that coming out of college it was expected that he would have a shorter than average time in the NFL due to a degenerative knee condition, and this looks no bueno (not good). His shortened career now looks like it has a wasted year in it, and his value should be tanking. Having said all of that, the Falcons can score some points and are relatively weak against running backs, so maybe he can get right.
Austin Hooper is coming off of a seven target game in week four against the Bills, and now he gets to go up against a team surrendering lots of points to opposing tight ends. As a young tight end, the talent is there but the consistency is not, and it is anyone’s guess as to whether he develops into the stud that we all want to see him be. How he is used in this game will be indicative of his growth and potential in this offense in the near future.
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Chicago at Baltimore
The season started with a bang for rookie Tarik Cohen but then his usage has plummeted since. What gives? I sure don’t know, and I’m not sure coach John Fox does, either. Unless his usage flips around soon his value could descend nearly as fast as it ascended, keep an eye on this one.
While we’re on a streak of guys with inconsistent usage, Javorius Allen came out of the gate this season with tons of rushing opportunities but no targets, then his rushing opportunities evaporated and his targets exploded, and then last week he got rushing and passing game opportunities. Color me confused. Anyway, if last week was the start of a new trend, then this week’s usage will be confirmation that a trend is forming. If that trend is forming, then we want in on him while his price is still relatively low.
Cleveland at Houston
He has been getting tons of press already, but Kevin Hogan being named the new starter for the Browns means he probably has the most value to gain or lose. He has looked at least serviceable when inserted into games and theoretically has a team around him that could propel him to fantasy relevance in some weeks. Houston, however, is a tough test for an inexperienced quarterback. I’ll be interested to see if he can hang tough.
The opposing signal caller, Deshaun Watson, has been nothing short of fantastic lately. The Cleveland defense is unlikely to slow him down, so keeping an eye on his performance today will go a long way towards showing us what his floor could be. What I mean is that he should have a strong outing here, so if he doesn’t, that is a red flag.
Detroit at New Orleans
After looking like a potential stud against Minnesota, Ameer Abdullah fell back to earth against the Panthers. New Orleans is a lay up of a match up for running backs, so what we want to see is a rebound for Ameer here. If he can’t rebound, then we know that maybe his value won’t be going up too much anytime soon.
Averaging 14 rushing attempts per week in the two games before the Saints bye, Alvin Kamara now no longer has to worry about Adrian Peterson taking work from him. While Mark Ingram figures to still be involved heavily, Kamara feels like the upside play here that has room for growth in his value over a short time frame.
Green Bay at Minnesota
This season, Ty Montgomery put up great fantasy stats but he was buoyed by his involvement in the passing game before going down with injury He has 3.3 yards per carry on the year. Once the injury occurred, enter Aaron Jones, who has amassed 5.44 yards per carry. This looks like a committee back going forward, and Jones has an opportunity to solidify himself as the primary ball carrier in that committee.
Receiver Adam Thielen exploded out of the gate this year, then cooled off without Sam Bradford in at quarterback. Now Stefon Diggs is out for the week, and Thielen gets a chance to prove what he can do as his team’s primary target in a game against a tough offense and suspect defense. This feels like a blowup spot brewing, and it will say more about Thielen if he doesn’t capitalize than if he does.
New England at New York Jets
James White is averaging nearly six targets per game this year, and the Jets have been giving up tons of production to opposing running backs. I fear that this week’s game script lines up to be a floor type of game for James White. While his ceiling is very attractive, his virtual lack of involvement in the ground game could leave him with a low floor in situations where the opposing team might not be good enough to score points. If he stays involved despite this projected game script, it means good things for him.
Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins keeps getting a write up from me, and keeps deserving it. Last week he got eight targets when his team only took 53 offensive snaps. His role is growing, and the team around him isn’t getting any better. The Patriots can’t defend all that well, so this could turn out to be another ascending game for him.
San Francisco at Washington
Rookie tight end George Kittle is coming off of a very impressive game against the Colts, and now the 49ers draw a Washington defense that is stout against pretty much everything but tight ends. Pencil this in as a game to watch to see if Kittle can keep his involvement and production rolling. If so, he deserve to be moving up the dynasty tight end rankings. This rookie class is absurd.
As of writing, Rob Kelley is doubtful and Semaje Perine looks locked in for a heavy workload in a game with a projected heavily positive game script. In the past, he’s gotten plenty of carries but still is the owner of only a 3.11 yards per carry average on the season. So, can he do more with opportunities here? There is room to grow if he can prove he deserves it.
Late Games
Tampa Bay at Arizona
Jameis Winston hasn’t looked quite like the young stud that he used to this season, despite having a talented surrounding cast. It’s hard to say if he’s just having a slump or if opposing defenses are figuring him out, but either way his fantasy output is down and we don’t like that for dynasty fantasy football value. The Cardinals aren’t an overwhelming defense, so we should watch to see if Winston can right the ship here.
On the other side, Adrian Peterson has found a new team with the Cardinals and it’s now or never for both him and them, with three aging stars on offense. How does he click with them? Can his presence lift up the passing game as well? So many question marks, but his addition at least has the possibility of resurrecting this offense to consistency.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville
After dominating the early part of the season, Todd Gurley showed us his floor with a really rough outing last week. The Jaguars are weak against running backs, and strong against everything else. This needs to be a bounceback week for Gurley for him to solidify himself as one of the top options in the game. Floor games are okay as long as they don’t become a trend in places where they shouldn’t be.
Leonard Fournette looks like a bonafide stud in the NFL, proving to be match up proof. The Rams are somehow even worse at defending the run than the Jaguars, and expectation is that Fournette will continue to roll against them. He has room to keep ascending, and his ceiling is up there with Ezekiel Elliot, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Kareem Hunt.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Pittsburgh has a strong match up for wide receivers against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Chiefs have also been prone to big plays. I can’t be the only one thinking that this lines up like the game where Martavis Bryant blows up. Then again, if he doesn’t, we need to start questioning if he will blow up moving forward.
Through four weeks I said I was impressed that Alex Smith was supporting so many high level fantasy options on offense. Now it is beginning to look a bit like Tyreek Hill could be the odd man out in the trio of himself, Hunt, and Travis Kelce. The Steelers are stingy with wide receivers, so his lower scoring streak looks like it could continue. He needs to start putting up more points to justify his continued current value.
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland
Could we finally be seeing the changing of the guard at tight end? While I’m looking forward to seeing Mike Williams in action, Hunter Henry may finally be passing Antonio Gates. With a touchdown in two straight games and eight targets to Gates’ three in week five, we need to pay close attention. As soon as he becomes the preferred option for the Chargers, his value is likely to take off and never come down to where it is presently.
Until Amari Cooper proves he deserves otherwise, he is the man on the Raiders with the most value to gain or lose each and every week. He is in the middle of a terrible down streak after several years of top notch production for a young wide receiver. This could get ugly for those that invested heavily in him. Or he could bounce back – we just don’t know.
Sunday Night
New York Giants at Denver
This game looks like it will be very difficult for the Giants, now lacking most of their offensive options. Enter Evan Engram, who stands alone beside Eli Manning as the offensive starters at skill positions that started the season and will still be suiting up as a starter tonight. He’s been touted as more of a receiver than traditional tight ends, so this would be a nice time for him to step up and show his mettle in an even larger role.
While we’re discussing tight ends, 2016 pre-season darling AJ Derby exploded last week with four catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Is this a trend moving forward? So far this year the passing offense has run through Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, but if the target distribution begins to change then there is room for value growth at the tight end position in Denver; especially considering none of them carry much value right now.
Monday Night
Indianapolis at Tennessee
The Colts rookie running back Marlon Mack appears to be ascending and deserving of more touches. What that turns into for him is anyone’s guess, but he certainly has the most value to gain out of anyone on the Colts offense on Monday night. The rest of the starting roster is pretty locked in but Frank Gore has not impressed in 2017, so Mack has a shot at jumping him.
Running back Derrick Henry has had his productivity tank since DeMarco Murray proved his health. With the production he is putting out, it seems likely his touches could get scaled back. That’s a real shame considering this looks like a tasty match up for him. My question here is simply how involved will he be? If he keeps getting touches, then great, but that is no guarantee. If his rough production begins cutting into opportunities, then we have cause for alarm.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
